Tuesday, December 3, 2013

SPY, DIA, IWM Form Spinning Top and QQQ Forms Doji in Bull Flag Pattern...TSLA, AAPL, MU, AKAM Rise as KKD, RAX Crushed...

Four of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday…XLU, XLP and XLE were the strongest sectors…while XLB was the weakest sector. 

Breadth strengthened slightlydecliners led advancers…1.59 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.64 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened slightly, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, advancers led
Wednesday – unchanged, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY down .78 at 179.75…volume 116.5 million shares
VIX up .32 at 14.55…
TNX down .26 at 27.75…
TLT up .38 at 103.71...
XLF down .22 at 21.25 volume 27.7 million shares

AAPL up 15.09 at 566.32 volume 16.1 million shares
FB down .33 at 46.73…volume 32 million shares

Technical Commentary: 
DIA – 0.58%, IWM – 0.48%, SPY – 0.43%, QQQ – 0.08%.

Each of the broad index ETFs pulled back to short-term support in a bull flag pattern on Tuesday as taper speculation began to surface as auto sales .  The SPY, IWM and DIA formed a spinning top and the QQQ a doji which could be the second candle in a potential morning star pattern.  Weakness in financials XLF contributed to weakness in the SPY.

The VIX did confirm today’s pullback with its highest close in six weeks, but the VIX did close below its open as the SPX found intra-day short-term support and bounced over 7 points from its low.

We alerted you on Friday to adjust stops and be prepared for a potential pullback.  On Wednesday watch for a potential support bounce and potential entry signal into bull flag patterns.  Continue to trade with the trend.

TSLA +20.53, +16.53% as German regulators cleared the company of any safety defect in recent auto fires.  The stock completed a reversal pattern breakout following a MACD bullish divergence.

AAPL +15.09, +2.74% after UBS upgrades AAPL from neutral to buy and raised it price target from $540 to $650.

MU +0.56, +2.63% after Needham initiated coverage with a $30 price target.

KKD -4.96, -20.20% after meeting estimates of $0.16 eps, 33% growth from year ago, but missing revenues with $114.2 million vs. $117.67 million estimate.


Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results.”

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

New short term chart targets:
Chart Targets:
SPY = 182.06, 183.02…Friday’s high 181.75
QQQ = 85.14, 85.77…touched on Friday
IWM = 114.39, 116.10…Friday’s high over 114

Short-term SPY posture is down in bull flag pattern.
Support Levels
ES = 1,797, 1,783, 1,774
SPY = 179.93, 177.98
QQQ = 84.11
IWM = 111.62, 110.88


Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – SPLK, MRVL, GMCR, JCP, LZB, JKS, BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA, NTAP, SLXP, PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA

Negative Reactions – ROST, GME, BBY, CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP, AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW, ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS, VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP, EW, MRK,  RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL, ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY, CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST


The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.   

____________________

Setups 
H Breakout: ADSK, BIDU, STX, LVS,
Diagonal Breakout: BRCM, FB,
Bull Flag: BBBY, CMCSA, COST, ESRX, GILD, GOOG, MAT, NFLX, ALK, C, DNKN, RCL, SPY, SWI, UAL,
Potential Bullish Divergence:  
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:  
At Support: ROST,
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: MU,  
Gap Up: TSLA, GRPN,
Gap Down: FAS, KKD, RAX, V,   
H Breakout: GOGO,
Breakout Test:
Bounce: AKAM,  
MACD Divergence Bounce:
Bear Flag: 
Support Break: SHLD, ATI,


______________________


32 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday and two were unchanged.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: TSLA, AKAM, MNST, AAPL, MU, ADI, LLTC, MDLZ, EBAY, VIP

Lagging NDX stocks included: SHLD, REGN, GILD, CHTR, MYL, GOLD, BIIB, VRTX, AMZN, CELG

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: GOGO, GRPN, SCTY, SSYS, XONE, MCP, QIHU, CLF, X

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: KKD, RAX, NTES, UAL, FIVE, F, Z, LCC, FAS, GME, SCSS

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 55
CTSH, VOD, ADBE, SBUX, MSFT, XRAY, AAPL, HSIC, FISV, INTU, LINTA, PAYX, WDC, CHKP, GOOG, ADP, AMZN, MAT, CA, COST, LLTC, TXN, MCHP, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, GILD, MYL, PCLN, MDLZ, MNST, YHOO, QCOM, NTAP, SIAL, CELG, BIIB, GRMN, CERN, CMCSA, CTXS, LBTYA, GMCR, BBBY, DTV, STX,   NVDA, LMCA, BIDU, VRTX, BRCM, AVGO

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
EBAY, KLAC, ADI, TSLA

Moving Below 30 DMA = 9
ATVI, PCAR, SHLD, SIRI, SRCL, WYNN, DISCA, REGN, CHTR

Staying Below 30 DMA
FOSL, ISRG, NUAN, INTC, ROST, SYMC, AMGN, DLTR, GOLD, SNDK, SBAC, CHRW, EQIX, FOXA, EBAY, SPLS, CSCO, VIAB, AMAT, VIP, WFM, CTRX, KRFT,  VRSK, TSLA, EXPD, FAST, FB, MXIM, AKAM, ORLY, FFIV, ALTR, XLNX


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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