Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Washington Impasse Nearing Resolution as QQQ, IWM, XLV, XLV Make New High Close...SPY, XLF Near Potential Breakout as Breadth Expands...FB Continues to Rise...

All nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLF, XLV and XLE were the strongest sectors…XLI was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth strengthened…advancers led decliners…4.02 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.52 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – weakened, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
 
 
SPY up 2.37 at 172.07…volume 161.6 million shares
VIX down 3.95 at 14.71…
TNX down .49 at 26.71…
TLT up 1.31 at 105.85...
XLF up .42 at 20.68 volume 75.4 million shares
 
AAPL up 2.43 at 501.11…volume 8.9 million shares
FB up 1.64 at 51.13volume 64.6 million shares
 
Technical Commentary: 
QQQ + 1.13%, IWM + 1.24%, SPY + 1.40%, DIA + 1.44%.
 
Today a deal was reached on the budget and debt ceiling impasse.  It has been approved in the Senate and is expected to pass the House this evening.  The lifting of uncertainty seemed to a catalyst for buyers to step in with above average volume on Wednesday.
 
QQQ, IWM, XLV and XLE broke through horizontal resistance and made new highs.  SPY, XLF, XLK and XLY are near horizontal resistance and are setting up to a potential breakout.  Numerous stocks made new highs and many are at horizontal resistance.  VIX -21.17% collapsed confirming the big move up.
 
FB +1.63, +3.30% made its third highest close today at 51.13, just 11 cents below its all-time high close on Sep 27.
 
After the close SCSS, IBM, EBAY and XLNX gapped down on negative earnings reactions.
 
We are not surprised by this move and no one who has really been looking at the weight of the evidence on the charts the past week should be either.
 
It appears that a debt default has been avoided and that this trend is poised to go higher.  Remember on breakouts we expect about 70% to pause and return to the area of the breakout.  Strongest stocks keep rising.
 
 
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 81.87, 83.17
IWM = 110.96, 112.83
SPY = 172.76
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is SPY up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,685, 1,672, 1,660, 1,641
SPY = 168.33, 167.08, 165.31, 164.62
QQQ = 78.40, 77.36, 76.79, 75.99
IWM = 105.82, 104.85, 103.90, 102.94
 
Earnings to Watch
Monday –
Tuesday – KO, CSX, INTC, JNJ, LLTC, SCHW, YHOO
Wednesday – AXP, BAC, EBAY, IBM, KEY, MAT, PEP, SNDK, SCSS, SWK, STLD, USB, URI, XLNX
Thursday – CMG, GOOG, GS, ISRG, LVS, NUE, BTU, UNP, UNH, VZ
Friday – BHI, GE, HON, KSU, MS, SLB, STI
 
 
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – BAC, KEY, PEP, SCHW, INTC, JNJ, COST, AA,
 
Negative Reactions – SWK, MU, FAST
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up.   
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: AAPL, AKAM, FB, MAT, MNST, MSFT, NFLX, ROST, SIRI, SNDK, TSLA, TXN, WDC, ALK, ATI, CLF, CREE, FAS, NKE, P, SCTY, SPY, SSYS, UNG, VRSN, WLT, ZION, MFRM, NKE, BA,
 
Diagonal Breakout: BBBY, GOOG, MYL, QCOM, CRM, GRPN, RCL, SWKS, Z, MU, XONE,
 
Bull Flag: ADBE, ATVI, CTSH, CMG, X
 
Potential Bullish Divergence:   
 
Gap Up: SNDK, STLD,
 
Gap Down:  SCSS, IBM, EBAY, XLNX,
 
Bear Flag: RAX, ANR, RCL, Z,
 
At Support: NTAP, SCSS,       
 
Moves
New Highs: QQQ, IWM, XLE, XLV, CELG, CMCSA, GILD, GRMN, WDC, WYNN, DNKN, YNDX, LVS,
 
Gap Up: AMGN,  
 
Gap Down: SWK,      
 
H&D Breakout: STX, SYMC, JNPR, STI, A, DDD, FSLR, KKD, QIHU, MA, ZION,
 
Breakout Test: 
 
Bounce: SPY, TLT, CIEN, F, FIVE, GRPN, GS, NTES, P, SCTY, SOHU, SPLK, SWI, V, YELP
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break:    
 
 
______________________
 
 
84 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: REGN, SPLS, FB, GILD, GRMN, LMCA, VRTX, MDLZ, ISRG, AMGN, ALXN, LINTA, ORLY, CERN, FOSL, STX, DISCA
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  GOLD, ATVI, NUAN, CTSH, LLTC
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: FAS, ZAGG, JNPR, JCP, C, CRM, URE, YELP, GS, RCL, UCO, DDD, Z, SWI, GRPN, BAC, VMW, V, CIEN
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: SWK, FAZ, AKS, XONE, TBT
 
Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 60
GRMN, FB, WYNN, ADSK, AVGO, CTSH, VOD, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, ADBE, DLTR, SNDK, WFM, CHTR, BIDU, MYL, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, CMCSA, BBBY, MSFT, XRAY, VRSK, ISRG, AAPL, HSIC, SPLS, AKAM, ATVI, CELG, FISV, FOSL, GILD, INTC, INTU, KLAC, LINTA, ORLY, PAYX, PCAR, PCLN, SIRI, SRCL, TXN, SBAC, WDC, LMCA, FOXA, CHKP, DTV, TSLA, MNST, VIAB, NFLX, ESRX, GOOG, QCOM
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 16
ADP, AMGN, AMZN, BIIB, BRCM, COST, DELL, MAT, MCHP, NVDA, SYMC, XLNX, MDLZ, DISCA, REGN, KRFT
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
EBAY, FFIV, LLTC, MU, EXPE, SHLD, FST, ALXN, SIAL,LBTYA, CHRW, EXPD, NTAP, ALTR, EQIX, CA, ADI, CSCO, CTXS, NUAN, GMCR, GOLD, VRTX, CTRX
 
Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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