Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Stocks Find Buyers as Earning Reactions Begin AA, COST, FAST...MU Reports Thursday...HPQ Gains...

Five out of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLU, XLK and XLF were the strongest sectors…XLY was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth strengthened…decliners led advancers…1.05 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.30 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Wednesday – strengthened, decliners led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened, advancer led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
 
 
SPY up .12 at 165.60…volume 168.6 million shares
VIX down .74 at 19.60…
TNX up .14 at 26.50…
TLT down .85 at 105.32...
XLF up .06 at 19.64 volume 78.7 million shares
 
AAPL up 5.65 at 486.59…volume 10.7 million shares
FB down .37 at 46.77volume 147.1 million shares
 
Technical Commentary: 
QQQ – 0.31%, IWM – 0.40%, SPY + 0.07%, DIA + 0.17%.
 
Earnings season is underway with positive reactions from AA and COST and a negative reaction from FAST.  MU reports on Tuesday after the close.
 
HPQ +1.85, +8.92% formed a mega white candle on triple recent volume.
 
Stocks moved lower and found support and SPY and QQQ formed hammer candles. In the wake of Washington’s excuses the six strong sectors XLB, XLE, XLI, XLK, XLV and XLY broke the support of their bull flag on Tuesday and came back into their three month trading range.
 
IWM fell to its 61.8% Fib level and bounced forming a red candle with a lower shadow the size of its red body.  QQQ penetrated its 61.8% Fib support and within 11 cents of its 200% price target of Tuesday’s break of Sep 30 support.  SPY hit a 78.6% retracement of it Aug – Sep uptrend and also hit its 200% price target of Tuesday’s break of Oct 3 support. DIA completed a 100% retracement of its recent up trend. 
 
While the markets look for the end of the uncertainty caused by current fiscal issues, the broad markets may be establishing the range of the next three weeks as focus shifts from the broad market to individual earnings reports.  Look for big moves on individual stocks both up and down as companies report over the next three weeks.
 
 
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 79.69
SPY = 173.60
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is SPY down.
Support Levels
ES = 1,672, 1,660, 1,641, 1,681
SPY = 168.33, 167.08, 165.31, 164.62
QQQ = 78.40, 77.36, 76.79, 75.99
IWM = 105.82, 104.85, 103.90,  102.94
 
 
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – COST, AA
 
Negative Reactions – FAST,
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down.   
 
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Setups 
H Breakout: KKD, SCSS, TBT,
 
Diagonal Breakout:  ALK, ATI, JNPR, QIHU, SINA, V, AAPL, ADBE, SYMC, TSLA, TXN,
 
Bull Flag: A, CIEN, CMG, CNX, CREE, FSLR, NKE, SOHU, TSL, VECO, X, BIDU, CERN, CMCSA, CTSH, FB, GRMN, MSFT, MU, MYL, PCLN, SHLD, SNDK, STX, WYNN, YHOO,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence:  BAC, C, CLF, SSYS, STI, SWI, SWKS, UAL, Z, ZION
 
Gap Up:
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag: MNST,
 
At Support:  TLT,   
 
Moves
New Highs: 
 
Gap Up:     
 
Gap Down:     
 
H&D Breakout:     
 
Breakout Test: 
 
Bounce:     
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break:  
 
 
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25 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday and two were unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: COST, ISRG, HSIC, MU, AAPL
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  GMCR, FAST, SHLD, NFLX, TSLA, VRTX, ALXN, LINTA, REGN
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: LDK, NTES, SINA, ANF
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: DDD, UCO, TSL, GRPN, RBVD, JDSU, MCP, TPX, ZAGG
 
Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 29
GRMN, FB, WYNN, ADSK, AVGO, CTSH, VOD, SHLD, MU, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, ADBE, DLTR, SNDK, WFM, CHTR, BIDU, MYL, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, CMCSA, BBBY, MSFT, XRAY, VRSK, ISRG
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
AAPL, HSIC, SPLS
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 11
CELG, FAST, FFIV, INTU, KLAC, NVDA, PCLN, SIRI, REGN, LMCA, TSLA
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
AKAM, ALXN, AMZN, BIIB, BRCM, DELL, EBAY, EXPE, FOSL, LINTA, ORLY, SRCL, XLNX, TXN, VIAB, SBAC, WDC, KRFT, NFLX, FOXA, AMGN, CHKP, FISV, GILD, MAT, QCOM, SIAL, DISCA, LBTYA, CHRW, EXPD, GOOG, LLTC, MCHP, NTAP, PAYX, PCAR, ALTR, ATVI, COST, EQIX, INTC, MDLZ, ADP,DTV, CA, ADI, CSCO, CTXS, NUAN, CMCR, GOLD, ESRX, VRTX, CTRX, SYMC, MNST
 
Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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