Friday, October 18, 2013

Anothe Record in IWM, SPY, FB , AMZN, GOOG as Big Money Continues to Buy...Breakouts to the Upside and Earnings Continue...

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLK, XLE and XLI were the strongest sectors…XLV was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth weakened slightly on the NASDAQadvancers led decliners…2.52 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.06 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Friday – weakened, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
 
 
SPY up 1.17 at 174.39…volume 129.3 million shares
VIX down .44 at 13.04…
TNX up .02 at 25.89…
TLT up .23 at 107.04...
XLF up...04 at 20.91 volume 42 million shares
 
AAPL up 4.39 at 508.89…on rising volume 10.4 million shares
FB up 2.01 at 54.22on rising volume 88.2 million shares…record closing high
 
Technical Commentary: 
QQQ +1.62%, IWM +1.14%, SPY +0.67%, DIA +0.19%.
 
If you did not read Thursday night’s post read it now…We highlighted the GOOG gap and AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, FB, NFLX, PCLN and WDC.  We wrote, “Watch the open for strong moves to the upside.”  Look at each of those charts and their move after the open including GOOG and CMG.  Friday was a great day to be in flow with the market trend and let the trend make you money.  We hope you did make a lot.
 
GOOG +122.61, +13.80%
CMG +70.67, +16.10%
 
IWM and SPY closed at new-record highs and QQQ closed at a new 10+ year high.  The weight of the technical evidence indicated that the market wanted to go to the upside even as it could not see if the government would actually default on the 17th.  As soon as the uncertainty was removed and it was known that the government would not default, stocks went higher just as the weight of the evidence suggested.  We hope you were onboard for the big gains.  If you were not, when will you stop thinking you or someone knows better than big money pressure?
 
QQQ, IWM, SPY, XLE, XLV, XLK, XLY, FB, GOOG, CMG, AMZN, AVGO, BIDU, CELG, CERN, CMCSA, GILD, ROST, SBUX, SIRI, SNDK, STX, WDC, WFM and WYNN each broke through horizontal resistance this week and moved to a new high.
 
Numerous other stocks are poised at horizontal resistance with a breakout setup.
 
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 81.87, 83.17
IWM = 110.96, 112.83
SPY = 177.85
 
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is SPY up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,685, 1,672, 1,660, 1,641
SPY = 168.33, 167.08, 165.31, 164.62
QQQ = 78.40, 77.36, 76.79, 75.99
IWM = 105.82, 104.85, 103.90, 102.94
 
Earnings to Watch
Earnings releases continue with a large list of major companies reporting next week.
 
 
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
 
Negative Reactions – HON, ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up and is above 80.   
 
____________________

 
 
67of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday and one was unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GOOG, BIDU, AMZN, FB, GMCR, SHLD, STX, LINTA, FOSL, FFIV
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  ISRG, MYL, ALXN, REGN, DTV, NUAN, ORLY, CMCSA, ALTR, BIIB
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: CMG, SCTY, FSLR, YELP, QIHU, YOKU, SOHU, LNKD, Z, YNDX, FIVE, P, SWK, SINA, XONE, GME, BBRY, ZION, LVS, CRM
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: JCP, ANR, MCP, WLT, SCSS
 
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 75
GRMN, FB, WYNN, AVGO, CTSH, VOD, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, ADBE, DLTR, SNDK, WFM, CHTR, BIDU, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, CMCSA, BBBY, MSFT, XRAY, VRSK, AAPL, HSIC, SPLS, AKAM, ATVI, CELG, FISV, FOSL, GILD, INTC, INTU, KLAC, LINTA, ORLY, PAYX, PCAR, PCLN, SIRI, SRCL, TXN, SBAC, WDC, LMCA, FOXA, CHKP, DTV, TSLA, MNST, VIAB, NFLX, ESRX, GOOG, QCOM, ADP, AMGN, AMZN, BIIB, BRCM, COST, MAT, MCHP, NVDA, SYMC, MDLZ, DISCA, REGN, KRFT, ALTR, CA, VRTX, ADI
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
CHRW, CTRX, EXPD
 
Moving Below 30 DMA =5
ADSK, DELL, GOLD, ISRG, MYL
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
XLNX, EBAY, FFIV, LLTC, MU, EXPE, SHLD, FAST, ALXN, SIAL, LBTYA, NTAP, EQIX, CSCO, CTXS, NUAN, GMCR
 
Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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