Tuesday, October 1, 2013

IWM Leads to New High...QQQ Poised for Breakout...PCLN, NFLX New Highs as CREE, YELP, SHLD Soar...

All nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday…XLV, XLK and XLY were the strongest sectors…XLU was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth strengthened…advancers led decliners…2.61 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.55 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened –advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, mixed
 
 
SPY up 1.33 at 169.34…volume 127 million shares
VIX down 1.06 at 15.54…
TNX up .31 at 26.46…
TLT down .32 at 105.80...
XLF up .14 at 20.05…volume 40.9 million shares
 
AAPL up 11.21 at 487.96…volume 12.6 million shares
FB up .19 at 50.42volume 98 million shares
 
Technical Commentary: 
IWM + 1.16%, QQQ + 1.01%, SPY + 0.79%, DIA + 0.41%.
 
Talk is cheap.  Actions speak louder than words.  Charts don’t lie.  Uncertainty removed, politicians’ stalemate, partial government shutdown and institutions do what the chart has been indicating, they buy.  Those who are surprised just won’t look at the chart and believe what they see.  Some continue to believe that they can outguess the market.
 
Strong IWM and QQQ over the past two weeks and a relatively weak VIX was shouting that institutions were looking to the future not the present and they were buying.  IWM broke out of resistance to a new high on Tuesday…yes, a NEW HIGH!  Breakout chart target now IWM = 109.72.
 
Financials XLF slightly lagged the SPY but regional banks, KRE, ZION, STI and RF among others outperformed.  GLD and TLT rolled over back in the direction of their intermediate term down trends.
 
CREE +9.57, +15.90% exploded to the upside after an analyst upgrade and price target of 80.
 
YELP +4.94, +7.46% bounced to resistance after a Cowen raised price target to 80.
 
With many bounce entries on Tuesday, look for horizontal and diagonal breakout setups on leading stocks like IWM, QQQ, YELP, SINA, HLF, SHLD, DDD, SSYS among others.  Stop letting talking heads and others mislead you and exploit your fears.  Follow your rules.
 
 
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 79.69
SPY = 173.60
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is SPY down, NDX, QQQ neutral.
Support Levels
ES = 1,672, 1,660
SPY = 168.33, 167.08, 165.31
QQQ = 78.40, 77.67
IWM = 105.52, 104.57
 
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – NKE, BBBY, ULTA, FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down. 
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: ADBE, AKAM, CMCSA, CTSH, FAST, GRMN, MSFT, MYL, SIRI, WFM, DDD, ESI, LNKD, LVS, RAX, TPX, X, YELP, YOKU,
 
Diagonal Breakout: AAPL, NUAN, SBUX, SNDK, WDC,
 
Bull Flag: ADSK, AMAT, COST, NKE,   
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: MFRM,  
 
Gap Up:
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag:
 
At Support: SYMC,  
 
Moves
New Highs: BIDU, CELG, NFLX, PCLN, ROST, WYNN, YHOO, TSL,
 
Gap Up: DELL, NFLX, CREE, SWK, UNG,  
 
Gap Down: GOLD, TLT,
 
H&D Breakout: AMZN, SHLD, ALK, FIVE,  
 
Breakout Test:  
 
Bounce: AMGN, BBBY, BRCM, ESRX, FFIV, GOOG, MAT, MYL, NTAP, QCOM, TXN, XLNX, ALK, ATI, BAC, CIEN, CLF, CREE, CRM, F, FAS, FIVE, GME, GRPN, GS, JNPR, RCL, SCTY, SPY, STI, SWKS, TIF, UAL, XONE, YNDX, ZION,
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break:  
 
______________________
 
 
81 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: SHLD, NFLX, FFIV, YHOO, MYL, CERN, PCLN, AMZN, SIRI, GRMN, AMGN, AAPL, DLTR
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  MDLZ, ADSK, PAYX, GOLD, DISCA, SBAC, ISRG, EQIX, ALTR, INTC, SYMC, AMAT
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: CREE, YELP, XONE, SINA, HLF, GRPN, TSL, AKS, DDD, URE, Z, SWKS, SSYS, SCSS, CIEN, FAS, TPX, MOS, GMCR, UAL, HUM, X, LNKD
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: ANR, FAZ, LDK
 
 
Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 72
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, WYNN, NVDA, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD, SBAC, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK, FOXA, ADBE, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTU, KLAC,SNDK, XLNX, TXN, AMZN, FAST, LINTA, SIRI, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, COST, MYL, PAYX, PCAR, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, LLTC, SIAL, CMCSA, LBTYA, MAT, MCHP, BBBY, EQIX, DISCA, FOSL, ORLY, SPLS, SRCL, MSFT, HSIC, NTAP
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 7
AAPL, ATVI, BRCM, CHKP, DELL, FFIV, GOOG
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
INTc, MDLZ
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
ADP, DTV, CA, QCOM, ADI, CSCO, WDC, CTXS, KRFT, NUAN, CMCR, GOLD, ESRX, VRTX, CTRX, SYMC, ISRG, MNST
 
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral, IWM = Up

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