Monday, October 7, 2013

Stocks Pull Back To Six Day Short Term Support...XONE Bounces Up 9.35%...

All nine sectors moved lower on Monday…XLP, XLK and XLU were the strongest sectors…XLY was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth weakened…decliners led advancers…3.71 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.86 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened, advancer led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
 
 
SPY down 1.46 at 167.43…volume 96.2 million shares
VIX up 2.67 at 19.41…
TNX down .18 at 26.34…
TLT up .43 at 106.14...
XLF down .23 at 19.82…volume 29.1 million shares
 
AAPL up 4.72 at 487.75…volume 11.1 million shares
FB down .52 at 50.52volume 57.7 million shares
 
Technical Commentary: 
QQQ – 0.83%, SPY – 0.86%, DIA – 0.95%, IWM – 1.17%.
 
Stocks pulled back to the short-term support level of the past week.  QQQ, IWM and SPY all stayed above last week’s support.  DIA closed just below last week’s support while forming an inverted hammer at support.
 
The weight of the evidence still indicates a move up is more probable however traders must trade what does occur in the face of the budget deadlock and gamesmanship that is taking place it is essential to continue to follow your rules.
 
FB -.52, -0.86% paused from Friday’s bounce.  Four analysts made comments or raised their price targets to 56 to 63.  Trend is still up.
 
XONE +4.13, +9.35% gained following positive analyst comments and a price target of 75.
 
 
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 79.69
SPY = 173.60
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is SPY neutral.
Support Levels
ES = 1,672, 1,660
SPY = 168.33, 167.08, 165.31
QQQ = 78.40, 77.67
IWM = 105.52, 104.57
 
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – NKE, BBBY, ULTA, FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down.   
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: AMAT, CMCSA, FFIV, TSLA, KKD, SCSS, SCTY, WLT,
 
Diagonal Breakout: AAPL, AKAM, NVDA, SYMC, WDC, GOLD,
 
Bull Flag: ADSK, AMGN, AMZN, FAST, GILD, MSFT, NFLX, PCLN, ROST, SHLD, SIRI, STX, WFM, WYNN, A, ALK, LVS, P, YNDX,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence:   
 
Gap Up:
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag:
 
At Support: NTES,      
 
Moves
New Highs:  
 
Gap Up: BBRY, TLT, UNG,   
 
Gap Down: TBT,   
 
H&D Breakout: XONE,   
 
Breakout Test: 
 
Bounce: BBRY, DNKN, XONE,   
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: GOOG, MAT, QCOM, TXN, RCL,  
 
 
______________________
 
 
18 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday and two were unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ISRG, GOLD, KRFT, AMAT, TSLA, AAPL, SBAC, FFIV
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  MAT, REGN, AMZN, NFLX, AMGN, VRTX, ATVI, CELG, YHOO, GILD, PCLN
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: XONE, BBRY, FAZ
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: DECK, YELP, GRPN, SOHU, FAS, ANF, GES, LNKD, HLF, MCP, RCL, ZION, CLF, SINA, Z, UAL, RVBD, SSYS, SWI, TIF, V, NTES, STI
 
 
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 59
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, WYNN, NVDA, ADSK, AVGO, CTSH, VOD, SBAC, SHLD, AKAM, BIIB, CELG, MU, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, REGN, FOXA, ADBE, ALXN, DLTR, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX, TXN, AMZN, FAST, LINTA, SIRI, WFM,  LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU,  MYL, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, CMCSA,  MAT, BBBY, DISCA, FOSL, ORLY, SPLS, MSFT, HSIC, BRCM, DELL, FFIV,
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 11
AMGN, CHKP, GILD, QCOM, SIAL, SRCL, XRAY, LBTYA, VRSK, WDC, KRFT
 
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
AAPL, CHRW, EXPD, GOOG, LLTC, MCHP, NTAP,PAYX, PCAR, ALTR,ATVI, COST, EQIX, INTC, MDLZ, ADP, DTV, CA, ADI, CSCO, CTXS, NUAN, GMCR, GOLD, ESRX, VRTX, CTRX, SYMC, ISRG, MNST,
 
Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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