All nine sectors moved lower on Monday…XLP, XLK and XLU were
the strongest sectors…XLY was the
weakest sector.
Breadth weakened…decliners led
advancers…3.71 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.86 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened,
advancer led
Thursday – weakened,
decliners led
Wednesday – weakened,
decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
Monday – weakened,
decliners led
SPY down 1.46 at 167.43…volume 96.2 million shares
VIX up 2.67 at 19.41…
TNX down .18 at 26.34…
TLT up .43 at 106.14...
XLF down .23 at 19.82…volume 29.1 million shares
AAPL up 4.72 at 487.75…volume 11.1 million shares
FB down .52 at 50.52…volume 57.7 million shares
Technical
Commentary:
QQQ – 0.83%,
SPY – 0.86%, DIA –
0.95%, IWM – 1.17%.
Stocks
pulled back to the short-term support level of the past week. QQQ, IWM and SPY all stayed above last
week’s support. DIA closed just
below last week’s support while forming an inverted hammer at support.
The weight
of the evidence still indicates a move up is more probable however traders must
trade what does occur in the face of the budget deadlock and gamesmanship that
is taking place it is essential to continue to follow your rules.
FB -.52,
-0.86% paused
from Friday’s bounce. Four analysts made
comments or raised their price targets to 56 to 63. Trend is still up.
XONE +4.13,
+9.35% gained following
positive analyst comments and a price target of 75.
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 79.69
SPY = 173.60
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville once
wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following
the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are
reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall
of mirrors.”
Short-term market posture
is SPY neutral.
Support Levels
ES = 1,672, 1,660
SPY = 168.33, 167.08,
165.31
QQQ = 78.40, 77.67
IWM = 105.52, 104.57
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – NKE, BBBY, ULTA,
FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK,
ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA,
AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB,
YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES,
MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK,
SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V, FB,
BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY,
MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP,
CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI,
YHOO, C, WFC
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD,
CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR,
CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS,
DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI,
CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD,
GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
Chart Signals Strategy
Guidelines
When the market is trending
up Chart Signals looks for support
bounce and resistance breakout entries.
When the market is trending
down Chart signals looks for resistance
pull back and support break entries.
When the market is sideways
in consolidation Chart
Signals will look for support
bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance
where price action stays between support and resistance.
Technical setups for short-term option
trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles,
strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups
in negative reaction stocks.
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout:
AMAT, CMCSA, FFIV, TSLA, KKD, SCSS, SCTY, WLT,
Diagonal Breakout: AAPL,
AKAM, NVDA, SYMC, WDC, GOLD,
Bull Flag: ADSK, AMGN,
AMZN, FAST, GILD, MSFT, NFLX, PCLN, ROST, SHLD, SIRI, STX, WFM, WYNN, A, ALK, LVS,
P, YNDX,
Potential Bullish
Divergence:
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:
At Support: NTES,
Moves
New Highs:
Gap Up: BBRY, TLT, UNG,
Gap Down: TBT,
H&D Breakout: XONE,
Breakout Test:
Bounce: BBRY, DNKN, XONE,
MACD Divergence
Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: GOOG,
MAT, QCOM, TXN, RCL,
______________________
18 of 100 NDX stocks
closed higher on Monday and two were unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ISRG, GOLD, KRFT,
AMAT, TSLA, AAPL, SBAC, FFIV
Lagging NDX stocks included: MAT, REGN, AMZN, NFLX, AMGN, VRTX, ATVI,
CELG, YHOO, GILD, PCLN
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday
included: XONE, BBRY, FAZ
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: DECK, YELP, GRPN, SOHU, FAS, ANF, GES,
LNKD, HLF, MCP, RCL, ZION, CLF, SINA, Z, UAL, RVBD, SSYS, SWI, TIF, V, NTES,
STI
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 59
TSLA,
GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, WYNN, NVDA, ADSK, AVGO, CTSH, VOD, SBAC, SHLD,
AKAM, BIIB, CELG, MU, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, REGN, FOXA, ADBE, ALXN, DLTR, INTU,
KLAC, SNDK, XLNX, TXN, AMZN, FAST, LINTA, SIRI, WFM, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, MYL, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, CMCSA, MAT, BBBY, DISCA, FOSL, ORLY, SPLS, MSFT,
HSIC, BRCM, DELL, FFIV,
Moving Above 30 DMA = 11
AMGN, CHKP, GILD, QCOM, SIAL, SRCL,
XRAY, LBTYA, VRSK, WDC, KRFT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
Staying Below 30 DMA
AAPL, CHRW,
EXPD, GOOG, LLTC, MCHP, NTAP,PAYX, PCAR, ALTR,ATVI, COST, EQIX, INTC, MDLZ,
ADP, DTV, CA, ADI, CSCO, CTXS, NUAN, GMCR, GOLD, ESRX, VRTX, CTRX, SYMC, ISRG,
MNST,
Sixteen Week Intermediate
Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Neutral
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