Thursday, October 17, 2013

SPY, IWM, QQQ, SNDK, GILD, FB Breakout of Resistance...Increased Price Targets...XLF Poised to Breakout...GOOG, CMG Gap Big in After-Hours...

Once again…all nine sectors moved higher on Thursday…XLK, XLE and XLY were the strongest sectors…XLU was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth strengthened…advancers led decliners…5.07 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.08 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – weakened, advancers led
 
 
SPY up 1.15 at 173.22…volume 129.3 million shares
VIX down 1.23 at 13.48…
TNX down .84 at 25.87…
TLT up .96 at 106.81...
XLF up .19 at 20.87 volume 53.4 million shares
 
AAPL up 3.39 at 504.50…volume 9 million shares
FB up 1.08 at 52.21volume 71.5 million shares
 
Technical Commentary: 
QQQ + 0.57%, SPY + 0.67%, IWM + 0.88%, DIA – 0.03%.
 
Horizontal breakouts a plenty on Thursday including SPY, IWM, QQQ, XLV, XLE, GILD and FB to mention just a few.  Once again the weight of the evidence has been right.  For the past week, except for Tuesday, stocks resisted the drama in Washington indicating the pressure was to the upside so on the first day since resolution SPY joins IWM and QQQ in a horizontal breakout.  One of the big keys of the rally over the past six days is that money is flowing back into financial stocks with XLF at horizontal resistance poised for a breakout.
 
After the close GOOG more than doubles its expected move after the close and seemed to lift other stocks like AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, FB, NFLX, PCLN and WDC.  Watch the open for strong moves to the upside.
 
GOOG +72.69, +8.18% in after-hours positive EPS reaction
CMG +34.43, +7.84% in after-hours positive EPS reaction
 
 
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 81.87, 83.17
IWM = 110.96, 112.83
SPY = 177.85
 
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is SPY up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,685, 1,672, 1,660, 1,641
SPY = 168.33, 167.08, 165.31, 164.62
QQQ = 78.40, 77.36, 76.79, 75.99
IWM = 105.82, 104.85, 103.90, 102.94
 
Earnings to Watch
Monday –
Tuesday – KO, CSX, INTC, JNJ, LLTC, SCHW, YHOO
Wednesday – AXP, BAC, EBAY, IBM, KEY, MAT, PEP, SNDK, SCSS, SWK, STLD, USB, URI, XLNX
Thursday – CMG, GOOG, GS, ISRG, LVS, NUE, BTU, UNP, UNH, VZ
Friday – BHI, GE, HON, KSU, MS, SLB, STI
 
 
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
 
Negative Reactions – GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up.   
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: AAPL, ADBE, AKAM, COST, INTC, MNST, MSFT, NFLX, ROST, SIRI, TXN, A, ALK, BAC, CLF, CRM, F, GME, KKD, NKE, P, QIHU, SINA, SPLK, SSYS, STI, V, ZION,
 
Diagonal Breakout: BBBY, MYL, FIVE,
 
Bull Flag: ATVI, CTSH, 
 
Potential Bullish Divergence:  
 
Gap Up: GOOG, CMG
 
Gap Down:  ISRG,
 
Bear Flag: 
 
At Support: FFIV,       
 
Moves
New Highs: CMCSA, GILD, SBUX, STX, WDC, WFM, DDD, DNKN, LCC, LVS, SCTY, SPY, IWM, QQQ, BA, AXP, MMM, XLV, XLE,
 
Gap Up: SNDK, VZ, GLD, TLT, 
 
Gap Down: UNH, EBAY, XLNX, MFRM, SCSS, TBT,   
 
H&D Breakout: CELG, FB, DDD, ESI, FAS, GLW, RCL,
 
Breakout Test: 
 
Bounce: MCP, UAL,        
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break:   
 
 
______________________
 
 
75 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday and one was unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: SNDK, GOLD, SBAC, MDLZ, VOD, GILD, BIIB, BIDU, ORLY, NFLX, ALTR, FB, XRAY
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  GMCR, EBAY XLNX, FFIV, YHOO
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: ZAGG, ESI, UAL, CDE, URE, RCL, FAS, GLW, DDD, XONE, A, LVS
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: SCSS, LDK, GMCR, GRPN, IBM, VECO, MFRM, Z, SWK, FAZ, UCO, HUM, TPX, GS, SWKS
 
Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 75
GRMN, FB, WYNN, ADSK, AVGO, CTSH, VOD, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, ADBE, DLTR, SNDK, WFM, CHTR, BIDU, MYL, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, CMCSA, BBBY, MSFT, XRAY, VRSK, ISRG, AAPL, HSIC, SPLS, AKAM, ATVI, CELG, FISV, FOSL, GILD, INTC, INTU, KLAC, LINTA, ORLY, PAYX, PCAR, PCLN, SIRI, SRCL, TXN, SBAC, WDC, LMCA, FOXA, CHKP, DTV, TSLA, MNST, VIAB, NFLX, ESRX, GOOG, QCOM, ADP, AMGN, AMZN, BIIB, BRCM, COST, DELL, MAT, MCHP, NVDA, SYMC, MDLZ, DISCA, REGN, KRFT
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
ALTR, CA, GOLD, VRTX, ADI
 
Moving Below 30 DMA =1
XLNX
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
EBAY, FFIV, LLTC, MU, EXPE, SHLD, FAST, ALXN, SIAL, LBTYA, CHRW, EXPD, NTAP, EQIX, CSCO, CTXS, NUAN, GMCR, CTRX
 
Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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