Thursday, September 12, 2013

Stocks Pause at Near Resistance as AAPL, QCOM Rebound...P Sings...I Want to Take You Higher...

Two of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday… XLK, XLP and XLV were the strongest sectors…XLB was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth weakened…decliners led advancers…2.14 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.82 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, mixed
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday - mixed
 
 
SPY down .45 at 168.95…volume 83.2 million shares
VIX up .47 14.29…
TNX down .13 at 29.07…
TLT down .14 at 103.15...
XLF down .14 at 20.14…volume 34.3 million shares
 
AAPL up 4.98 at 472.69volume 14.4 million shares
FB down .29 at 44.75volume 68 million shares
 
Technical Commentary:
 
QQQ – 0.06%, DIA - 0.08%, SPY – 0.27%, IWM – 0.73%.
 
Stocks paused and pulled back on Thursday with QQQ and DIA closing just below even while SPY closed at the middle of Wednesday’s range and IWM closed below Wednesday’s low.
 
QQQ, XLB, XLE and XLI are above August resistance at highs this week while IWM, XLK, XLV and XLY are just below August resistance.  Many stocks like FB, GRPN and AKAM have more than retraced 100% of August’s pullback like QQQ and have risen to new highs.
 
The NDX -4.29 received lift from AAPL, QCOM and AMGN while INTC, GOOG, BIDU, CMCSA, PCLN, BIIB and FB created downside pressure.  In the end the breadth of 72 declining stocks left the index slightly lower on Thursday. 
 
FB 44.75 closed below 45 after making a new intra-day high of 45.62.  FB closed above 45 for the time on Wednesday.
 
P +12.11%, YOKU +5.12%, ANGI +2.42% and UNG +2.25% led on Thursday. 
 
Breakout Chart Targets:
QQQ = 78.70, 79.58
IWM = 106.10, 107.51
SPY = 169.93, 171.56
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,647, 1,629, 1,611
SPY = 165.15, 163.35, 161.55
 
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up. 
 
____________________
 
Setups
H Breakout: AMGN, COST, EBAY, ESRX, FFIV, GILD, ROST, WFM, YHOO, NTES, RCL, SOHU, UNG, YOKU, Z,
 
Diagonal Breakout: AMAT, MNST, STI, ZION,
 
Bull Flag: ATVI, INTC, NUAN, TXN, ANR, BBRY, DDD, ESI, F, SCSS, WLT, YNDX,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
 
Gap Up: 
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag:
 
At Support: XONE,
 
Moves
New Highs: AKAM, MYL, NTAP, SBUX, GRPN, RAX,
 
Gap Up: DNKN, P,
 
Gap Down: GLD,  
 
H&D Breakout:  
 
Breakout Test:
 
Bounce:  
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: SYMC,  
 
______________________
 
 
26 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday…and two were unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: SHLD, VRTX, MYL, CTXS, YHOO, AMGN, AAPL, QCOM
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  GOLD, SIRI, NUAN, NFLX, WDC, BIDU, MU, EXPE, SBAC, LMCA, GMCR, ATVI, FFIV, XRAY, CTSH
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: HLF
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: XONE, CLF, SSYS, AKS, CDE, MCP, ANR, DDD, LDK, GES, UAL, Z, TSL, GLW, LNKD, ATI, CROX
 
Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 84
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, QCOM, WYNN, DELL, NVDA, GMCR, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD, SBAC, NUAN, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, NTAP, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK, FOXA, ADBE, ADP, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX, TXN, AMZN, BRCM, FAST, GOOG, LINTA, SIRI, VRTX, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, COST, FFIV, MYL, PAYX, PCAR, SBUX, STX, EQIX, AMAT, CA, CERN, CHKP, DTV, ESRX, HSIC, LLTC, MSFT, ORLY, SIAL, ADI, CMCSA, CTXS, MDLZ, LBTYA
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0
 
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
ATVI, MAT, SRCL, WDC
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
AAPL, GOLD, KRFT, CTRX, SYMC, FOSL, ISRG, SPLS, CSCO, MCHP, BBBY, DISCA, MNST
 
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral, NDX = Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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