Seven out of nine sectors moved higher on Monday…
XLI, XLB and XLF were the strongest sectors…XLK was the weakest sector.
Breadth strengthened…
advancers led decliners…2.15 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.20 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Monday
– strengthened, advancers led
Friday - strengthened,
advancers led
Thursday – weakened,
decliners led
Wednesday – weakened,
mixed
Tuesday – weakened,
advancers led
SPY
up .98 at 170.31…volume126.1 million shares
VIX
up .22 at 14.38…
TNX
down .24 at 28.74…
TLT
down .69 at
102.86...
XLF
up .22 at 20.42…volume 39.9 million shares
AAPL
down 14.78 at 450.12…volume
19.5 million shares
FB
down 1.80 at 42.51…volume 70.6 million shares
Technical Commentary:
QQQ – 0.21%, IWM +0.22%, SPY
+ 0.58%, DIA
+0.81%.
DIA, SPY, and IWM
gapped open, pulled back and still closed up on Monday. Both SPY and IWM opened above
horizontal resistance and closed just below resistance. QQQ closed lower forming a bearish
engulfing pattern due to weakness in AAPL, FB, MSFT.
Sectors XLI, XLB, and XLV closed
above horizontal resistance while XLF gapped higher. Sector strength seems to indicate that
overall up trend is likely to continue.
The FMOC two day meeting begins
tomorrow with Fed announcement on Wednesday.
Public expectations indicate reduced bond purchases $10 billion per
month. Look for increased volatility
going into and following Wednesday’s announcement.
SPY, IWM, and DIA along with
individual stocks CRM, RCL, CELG, FAST, GILD, and YHOO among others
are horizontal resistance breakout setups.
Breakout Chart Targets:
QQQ = 78.70, 79.58
IWM = 106.10, 107.51
SPY = 169.93, 171.56
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the
trend. As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis
is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’
crowd. The ‘smart money crowd’ is no
mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a
collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the
maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
Short-term market posture is up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,647, 1,629, 1,611
SPY = 165.15, 163.35, 161.55
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – ULTA, FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW,
ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST,
GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT,
VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN,
HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK,
SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V, FB,
BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY,
MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP,
CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI,
YHOO, C, WFC
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR,
CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA,
ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX,
EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO,
NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS,
USB, AXP, KO, MOS
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market
is trending up Chart Signals looks
for support bounce and resistance breakout entries.
When the market
is trending down Chart signals looks
for resistance pull back and support break entries.
When the market
is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals
will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs
at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance.
Technical setups for
short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls
or puts.
After earnings look for
bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative
reaction stocks.
The Market Forecast Green Line is
pointed up.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: ADBE,
AMAT, ATVI, BBBY, BRCM, CELG, DTV, EBAY, EXRX, FFIV, GILD, MAT, PCLN, SIRI,
TSLA, YHOO, ALK, BAC, F, FIVE, GME, GS, NTES, RCL, SOHU, SPY, SWI, UAL, YNDX,
Diagonal Breakout: MNST, SYMC, WDC, DDD, ESI, FSLR, GLW, JCP,
SCSS,
Bull Flag: BIDU, COST, FB, GOOG, NUAN, ANR, BBRY, CLF, CNX, GRPN,
LNKD, SINA, SPLK, WLT, YELP, Z,
Potential Bullish Divergence:
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:
At Support:
Moves
New Highs: MYL, WFM, XLNX, LVS, RAX,
Gap Up: AAPL, CMCSA, CTSH, STX, ATI, C, FAS,
Gap Down: QIHU,
H&D Breakout: AMGN, ROST, SHLD, TXN, SOHU, STI, UNG, ZION,
Breakout Test:
Bounce: MFRM,
MACD Divergence Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: XONE,
______________________
70 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday…and one was unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: BRCM, EXPE, ADSK, SPLS, BIIB,
AMGN, DLTR, CTRX, STX, ATVI, SHLD, CHRW, REGN, CTSH
Lagging NDX stocks included:
FB, AAPL, VRTX, ALTR, EQIX, FFIV, NFLX, FOSL, CELG, NUAN, GILD, QCOM,
MSFT
Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included: ATI, SOHU, NTES, FAS
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: XONE,
GRPN, UCO, SINA, CRUS, FAZ
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 83
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX,
QCOM, WYNN, DELL, NVDA, GMCR, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD, SBAC, SHLD,
AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, NTAP, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK, FOXA,
ADBE, ADP, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX, TXN, AMZN, BRCM,
FAST, GOOG, LINTA, SIRI, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, COST,
FFIV, MYL, PAYX, PCAR, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CA, CERN, CHKP, DTV, ESRX, HSIC, LLTC,
MSFT, ORLY, SIAL, ADI, CMCSA, CTXS, MDLZ, LBTYA, MAT, MCHP, KRFT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
ATVI, BBBY, SRCL
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
NUAN, VRTX, EQIX
Staying Below 30 DMA
WDC, AAPL, GOLD, CTRX, SYMC, FOSL,
ISRG, SPLS, CSCO, DISCA, MNST,
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral, NDX = Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up
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