Monday, September 16, 2013

DIA, SPY, IWM...ATI...SOHU Move Higher As AAPL Drops And FB Pulls Back...

Seven out of nine sectors moved higher on Monday… XLI, XLB and XLF were the strongest sectors…XLK was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth strengthened… advancers led decliners…2.15 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.20 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday - strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, mixed
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led
 
 
SPY up .98 at 170.31…volume126.1 million shares
VIX up .22 at 14.38…
TNX down .24 at 28.74…
TLT down .69 at 102.86...
XLF up .22 at 20.42…volume 39.9 million shares
 
AAPL down 14.78 at 450.12volume 19.5 million shares
FB down 1.80 at 42.51volume 70.6 million shares
 
Technical Commentary:
 
QQQ – 0.21%,  IWM +0.22%, SPY + 0.58%,  DIA +0.81%.
 
DIA, SPY, and IWM gapped open, pulled back and still closed up on Monday.  Both SPY and IWM opened above horizontal resistance and closed just below resistance.  QQQ closed lower forming a bearish engulfing pattern due to weakness in AAPL, FB, MSFT.
 
Sectors XLI, XLB, and XLV closed above horizontal resistance while XLF gapped higher.  Sector strength seems to indicate that overall up trend is likely to continue. 
 
The FMOC two day meeting begins tomorrow with Fed announcement on Wednesday.  Public expectations indicate reduced bond purchases $10 billion per month.  Look for increased volatility going into and following Wednesday’s announcement.
 
SPY, IWM, and DIA along with individual stocks CRM, RCL, CELG, FAST, GILD, and YHOO among others are horizontal resistance breakout setups.
 
Breakout Chart Targets:
QQQ = 78.70, 79.58
IWM = 106.10, 107.51
SPY = 169.93, 171.56
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,647, 1,629, 1,611
SPY = 165.15, 163.35, 161.55
 
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – ULTA, FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up. 
 
____________________
 
Setups
 
H Breakout:  ADBE, AMAT, ATVI, BBBY, BRCM, CELG, DTV, EBAY, EXRX, FFIV, GILD, MAT, PCLN, SIRI, TSLA, YHOO, ALK, BAC, F, FIVE, GME, GS, NTES, RCL, SOHU, SPY, SWI, UAL, YNDX,
 
Diagonal Breakout: MNST, SYMC, WDC, DDD, ESI, FSLR, GLW, JCP, SCSS,
 
Bull Flag: BIDU, COST, FB, GOOG, NUAN, ANR, BBRY, CLF, CNX, GRPN, LNKD, SINA, SPLK, WLT, YELP, Z,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
 
Gap Up: 
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag:
 
At Support:  
 
Moves
New Highs: MYL, WFM, XLNX, LVS, RAX,
 
Gap Up: AAPL, CMCSA, CTSH, STX, ATI, C, FAS,
 
Gap Down: QIHU,
 
H&D Breakout: AMGN, ROST, SHLD, TXN, SOHU, STI, UNG, ZION,
 
Breakout Test:
 
Bounce: MFRM,  
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: XONE,
 
______________________
 
 
70 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday…and one was unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: BRCM, EXPE, ADSK, SPLS, BIIB, AMGN, DLTR, CTRX, STX, ATVI, SHLD, CHRW, REGN, CTSH
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  FB, AAPL, VRTX, ALTR, EQIX, FFIV, NFLX, FOSL, CELG, NUAN, GILD, QCOM, MSFT
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included: ATI, SOHU, NTES, FAS
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: XONE, GRPN, UCO, SINA, CRUS, FAZ
 
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 83
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, QCOM, WYNN, DELL, NVDA, GMCR, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD, SBAC, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, NTAP, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK, FOXA, ADBE, ADP, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX, TXN, AMZN, BRCM, FAST, GOOG, LINTA, SIRI, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, COST, FFIV, MYL, PAYX, PCAR, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CA, CERN, CHKP, DTV, ESRX, HSIC, LLTC, MSFT, ORLY, SIAL, ADI, CMCSA, CTXS, MDLZ, LBTYA, MAT, MCHP, KRFT
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
ATVI, BBBY, SRCL
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
NUAN, VRTX, EQIX
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
WDC, AAPL, GOLD, CTRX, SYMC, FOSL, ISRG, SPLS, CSCO, DISCA, MNST,
 
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral, NDX = Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up
 

No comments: