Tuesday, September 10, 2013

QQQ, IWM, SPY, DIA Bullish Divergence Leads to W Bottom Breakout as Indexes Regain 75% of August Losses…Leading Stocks Power to New Highs Led by NFLX, MU, QCOM, QIHU, YELP…

All nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday… XLI, XLF and XLY were the strongest sectors…XLE was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth weakenedadvancers led decliners…1.96 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.96 to 1 on the NASDAQ…
 
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday - mixed
Thursday - mixed
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
 
 
SPY up 1.23 at 168.87…volume 102.4 million shares
VIX down -1.10 14.53…
TNX up 0.62 at 29.59…
TLT down .72 at 102.38...
XLF up .23 at 23.26…volume 36 million shares
 
AAPL down -11.53 at 494.64volume 26.4 million shares
FB down .44 at 43.60volume 54.4 million shares, bull flag
 
Technical Commentary:
 
IWM +0.98%, DIA +0.88%, SPY +0.74%, QQQ +0.49%
 
IWM small caps led the broad indexes combined for the second straight day and QQQ moved to a new high close even with weakness in AAPL which fell after announcing the latest iPhone editions 5s and 5c.
 
Breakout Chart Targets:
QQQ = 78.70, 79.58
IWM = 106.10, 107.51
SPY = 169.93, 171.56
 
MSFT, QCOM, SBUX, CSCO, CMCSA, BIDU, EBAY and NFLX were the point leaders that lifted the NDX to a new high close even with AAPL and FB weighing to the downside.
 
Breakouts and new highs on Tuesday from AVGO, CELG, DLTR, FAST, GRMN, INTU, MYL, NFLX, NTAP, PCLN, SBUX, TXN, VRSK, WYNN and XLNX joined Monday’s list AKAM, ALTR, CTSH, EXPD, MU, NUAN, NVDA, QCOM, SHLD, XRAY and YHOO that also moved higher today.  A large number of NDX stocks are making new highs and are being joined by coincidence and lagging stocks making moves to the upside.
 
NFLX +6.43%, 313.06 powered to a new all-time high close today officially recovering all of its 2011 – 2012 drop from its high of 304.79 to a 2012 low of 52.18 just over a year ago.
 
TSLA +3.53% bounced in its bull flag gained just when some thought TSLA was finally ready to  fall after forming a four-day flag pattern.
 
Airline stocks UAL +7.32%, DAL +4.00% and LCC +3.72% were soaring for the second straight day.
 
SCTY +22.39% sizzles after deal with Direct Energy to  provide solar electricity directly to businesses.
 
FIVE +17.18% gapped higher following a positive earnings reaction.
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,647, 1,629, 1,611
SPY = 165.15, 163.35, 161.55
 
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up. 
 
____________________
 
Setups
H Breakout: ANR, ATI, CRM, F, GLW, GRPN, JNPR, SINA,
 
Diagonal Breakout: NTES, YOKU,
 
Bull Flag: DDD, LNKD, SSYS
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
 
Gap Up: 
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag: STI
 
At Support: TLT
 
Moves
New Highs: NFLX, MU, QCOM, QIHU, YELP, WYNN, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, YELP, AKAM, ALTR, CTSH, EXPD, NUAN, NVDA, XRAY, AVGO, CELG, DLTR, FAST, GRMN, INTU, MYL, NTAP, PCLN, SBUX, TXN, VRSK, XLNX
 
Gap Up: FIVE, GS, LVS, RCL
 
Gap Down: 
 
H&D Breakout: RAX, ALK, BAC, C, CLF, CMG, FAS, FSLR, SWI
 
Breakout Test:
 
Bounce: MSFT, CREE, Z, TSLA, FSLR, KKD, P, PWRD, SINA, TBT, UAL,
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: GLD, MFRM,
 
______________________
 
 
79 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: SHLD, NFLX, MYL, MU, TSLA, BIDU, CHKP, WYNN, AMAT, XRAY
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  GOLD, GMCR, AAPL, ISRG, KRFT, FB, VOD, BBBY, VRTX, DISCA
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: SCTY, FIVE, UAL, ALK, CREE, FSLR, FAS, GS, KKD, ANGI, SINA, SWI, RAX, CIEN, PWRD, Z, ATI, RCL, CLF, LVS, YELP, NTES, C
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: BBRY, XONE, MFRM, GMCR, TPX
 
Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 70
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, FB, VIAB, NFLX, QCOM, AAPL, WYNN, DELL, NVDA, GMCR, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, SBAC, VOD, NUAN, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, NTAP, ROST, YHOO REGN, VRSK, FOXA, ADBE, ADP, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, TXN, AMZN, BRCM, FAST, GOOG, LINTA, LMCA, SIRI, VRTX, WFM, XRAY, WDC, CHTR, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, BIDU, COST, EQIX, FFIV, MAT, MYL, PAYX, PCAR, SBUX, STX
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 12
ADI, AMAT, CA, CERN, CHKP, DTV, ESRX, HSIC, LLTC, MSFT, ORLY, SIAL
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
CTXS, GOLD, KRFT
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
CTRX, ATVI, LBTYA, SYMC, FOSL, ISRG, MDLZ, SPLS, CSCO, MCHP SRCL, BBBY, CMCSA, DISCA, MNST
 
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral, NDX = Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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