Sunday, September 15, 2013

Bull Flags Appear as QQQ Above Resistance, IWM, SPY Just Below...Highest Weekly Close in Six Weeks...GS, NKE, V to be Added to DJIA...

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Friday… XLP, XLU and XLB were the strongest sectors…XLE was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth strengthened… advancers led decliners…1.62 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.53 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Friday - strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, mixed
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
 
 
SPY up .38 at 169.33…volume 72.7 million shares
VIX down .13 14.16…
TNX down .09 at 28.98…
TLT up .40 at 103.55...
XLF up .05 at 20.19…volume 29.4 million shares
 
AAPL down 7.79 at 464.90volume 10.7 million shares
FB down .44 at 44.31volume 52.7 million shares
 
Technical Commentary:
 
IWM +0.55%, DIA +0.43%, SPY +0.22%, QQQ +0.06%.
 
Broad index ETFs QQQ, IWM, SPY and DIA closed at highest weekly close in six weeks.  QQQ Is at bull market highs with IWM and SPY just below August resistance poised to breakout.  The DIA which played catchup this week after it was announce that BAC, HPQ and AA would be taken out of the index and GS, NKE and V would be added after the close on Friday, September 20.
 
The broad indexes consolidating above, at or just below resistance manifested through a large number of bull flag price patterns on Friday.  See out list of Bull Flag Setups below.
 
Our view is that the QQQ has shown the direction big money is going to take the market and that the probabilities favor continued trend up.  Next the FOMC will meet and it is widely expected that reduced asset purchases will be announced.  This has been the expectation since May 22, so everyone will have to wait and see if after four months the Fed does announce an actual reduction.
 
The NDX +2.70 was weighed down by AAPL, GOOG and FB while broad strength in INTC, MSFT, REGN, AMGN, and CMCSA added lift to the upside.  In the end the breadth of 60 advancing stocks lifted the index slightly higher on Friday. 
 
YOKU +8.93%, led on Friday. 
 
Breakout Chart Targets:
QQQ = 78.70, 79.58
IWM = 106.10, 107.51
SPY = 169.93, 171.56
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,647, 1,629, 1,611
SPY = 165.15, 163.35, 161.55
 
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – ULTA, FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up. 
 
____________________
 
Setups
H Breakout: ANGI, BAC, CRM, FSLR, RCL, SINA, IWM, UNG, VECO, YOKU, CELG, EBAY, ESRX, FAST, FIVE, GILD, MAT, ROST, SIRI, YHOO
 
Diagonal Breakout: JCP, NTES, SCTY, SPY, STI, TBT, Z, ZION, BRCM, SYMC, TSLA, WDC,
 
Bull Flag: FB, ALK, ANR, ATI, BBRY, C, CLF, CNX, CREE, DDD, ESI, F, FAS, FIVE, GLW, GS, JNPR, LNKD, PWRD, QIHU, SCSS, SPLK, SWI, UAL, WLT, YELP, YNDX, ADBE, AMZN, BIDU, COST, CTSH, GRMN, MU, NFLX, PCLN, QCOM, STX, TXN,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
 
Gap Up: 
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag:
 
At Support: XONE,
 
Moves
New Highs: CIEN, CMG, LVS, P, RAX, YOKU, AKAM, AMGN, MYL, NTAP, NVDA, SBUX, SHLD, WFM, WYNN, XLNX,
 
Gap Up: ULTA, SWY
 
Gap Down:
 
H&D Breakout:  DNKN, GME, GRPN, INTC,
 
Breakout Test:
 
Bounce:  MAT, TPX, BBBY, CMCSA, DTV, MSFT, SNDK,
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: SSYS
 
______________________
 
 
60 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday…and one was unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: REGN, INTC, SHLD, GOLD, BBBY, KRFT, FFIV, AMGN, NFLX, AKAM
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  VRTX, AAPL, YHOO, BIDU, MXIM, FB, COST, NUAN, SPLS, SBAC
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: YOKU, GME, CIEN, DNKN, MFRM, TSL, V, CRUS
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: SSYS, SCTY, WLT, SOHU, NTES, QIHU, ANR, SINA, CNX, SPLK
 
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 83
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, QCOM, WYNN, DELL, NVDA, GMCR, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD, SBAC, NUAN, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, NTAP, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK, FOXA, ADBE, ADP, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX, TXN, AMZN, BRCM, FAST, GOOG, LINTA, SIRI, VRTX, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, COST, FFIV, MYL, PAYX, PCAR, SBUX, STX, EQIX, AMAT, CA, CERN, CHKP, DTV, ESRX, HSIC, LLTC, MSFT, ORLY, SIAL, ADI, CMCSA, CTXS, MDLZ, LBTYA
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
KRFT, MAT, MCHP
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
 
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
ATVI, SRCL, WDC, AAPL, GOLD, CTRX, SYMC, FOSL, ISRG, SPLS, CSCO, BBBY, DISCA, MNST
 
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral, NDX = Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Dave,

Thank you! You are appreciated more than you will ever know!

Kathy :)