One of nine sectors moved higher and one was
unchanged on Friday…XLY, XLV and XLE were the
strongest sectors…XLB was the
weakest sector.
Breadth weakened… decliners led advancers…2.05 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.55 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened –advancers
led
Wednesday – weakened,
mixed
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
Monday – mixed,
decliners led
SPY down .78 at 168.91…volume 99 million shares
VIX up 1.40 at 15.46…
TNX down .24 at 26.19…
TLT up .26 at 106.56...
XLF down .08 at 20.05…volume 49.2 million shares
AAPL down 3.47 at 482.75…volume 8.1 million shares
FB up .85 at 51.24…volume 81.3 million shares, new all-time high
Technical
Commentary:
QQQ -0.13%, IWM
-0.45%, SPY -0.46%,
DIA -0.48%.
Stocks
closed lower on Friday as decliners led advancers the weekend before a
potential government partial shut-down.
VIX rose as the SPY fell in perhaps a mild preparation, just in
case. The SPY -1.06% for the week, indicates a low level of fear, suggesting
most believe some type of deal will be achieved in time next week.
SPY weakness seemed to reflect sector
weakness with XLF -1.93% on falling
interest rates TNX -4.14% and rising
bonds, TLT +1.56% for the week. XLP -1.83%,
XLV -1.63% and XLB -1.08% were also weaker than the SPY. XLI, XLE, XLK, XLU and XLY were
down for the week but stronger than the SPY.
The QQQ
+0.11% for the week was lifted by a
rising FB +7.73%, AAPL +3.28% and MSFT +1.46%
among rising NDX stocks. The IWM
+0.12% was also up slightly for the
week. Rising technology and small cap
stocks is generally positive and not a bearish indication.
Stocks may
continue Friday’s selloff on Monday before any compromise is reached. While the present need not be a repeat the
past, remember December 31 and January 2 when a compromise was reached at the
beginning of the year.
NKE +4.69%
following EPS on Thursday.
TSL +1.99,
+15.50% hit a
two-year high following a DB upgrade to Buy from Hold, raises price
target 18.00.
EBAY pulled back on Friday and stayed
above Thursday’s S1 following its gain of +2.43,
+4.48%. YHOO +0.80, +2.44% made another bull-market closing
high at 33.55 on volume of 31.8 million shares.
TSLA +2.26, +1.20% makes
another all-time high.
JCP -13.15%
which broke support on Tuesday, reached its S&R measuring target at 9.88 on
Thursday and then bounced, collapsed further on Friday.
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 79.69
IWM = 107.48
SPY = 173.60
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville once
wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following
the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are
reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall
of mirrors.”
Short-term market posture
is SPY down, NDX,
QQQ neutral.
Support Levels
ES = 1,672, 1,660
SPY = 168.33, 167.058
QQQ = 78.40, 77.67
IWM = 105.52
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – NKE,
BBBY, ULTA, FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW,
ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST,
GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT,
VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN,
HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK,
SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V, FB,
BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY,
MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP,
CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI,
YHOO, C, WFC
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD,
CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR,
CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS,
DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI,
CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD,
GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
Chart Signals Strategy
Guidelines
When the market is trending
up Chart Signals looks for support
bounce and resistance breakout entries.
When the market is trending
down Chart signals looks for resistance
pull back and support break entries.
When the market is sideways
in consolidation Chart
Signals will look for support
bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance
where price action stays between support and resistance.
Technical setups for short-term option
trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles,
strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups
in negative reaction stocks.
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: ESI, FSLR, KKD,
RAX, SINA, SOHU, SPLK, YOKU, ADBE, BBBY, CMCSA, GILD, GRMN, MSFT, NFLX, ROST,
SBUX,
Diagonal Breakout: CIEN,
CMG, CREE, CRM, GLD, LNKD, PWRD, QIHU, YELP, YNDX, Z, AAPL, AMZN, CTSH, FAST, GOOG,
SHLD, SNDK, SYMC, TXN, WFM
Bull Flag: ALK, ANGI, ATI,
GRPN, LVS, RCL, SPY, TPX, AKAM, AMAT, AMGN, EBAY, MYL, NVDA, STX, WYNN, XLNX,
Potential Bullish
Divergence:
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: FIVE, SSYS, ESRX,
At Support: ANR, BBRY, C,
CLF, CNX, F, FAS, GLW, GME, GS, NTES, SCTY, STI, SWI, TBT, TIF, WLT, ZION,
CSCO, NTAP,
Moves
New Highs: FB, CELG, MU,
PCLN, ROST, SBUX, TSLA, YHOO
Gap Up: NKE,
Gap Down: UAL,
H&D Breakout:
Breakout Test: DDD, TLT,
Bounce: DNKN, KKD, P, UNG,
CMCSA, GILD, STX,
MACD Divergence
Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: BAC, JCP, QCOM,
______________________
34 of 100 NDX stocks
closed higher on Friday and two were unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: CERN, CELG, YHOO,
FB, MSFT, CMCSA, TSLA, GILD, AVGO, DISCA
Lagging NDX stocks included: SHLD, QCOM, BRCM, AKAM, CSCO, INTC, CHRT,
CTXS, GMCR, NUAN
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday
included: TSL, NKE, KKD
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: JCP, UAL, QIHU, MCP, GRPN, CLF, X, ANR,
LNKD, PWRD, WLT, SSYS
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 75
TSLA,
GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, WYNN, NVDA, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD,
SBAC, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK,
FOXA, ADBE, ADP, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX,TXN, AMZN, FAST,
LINTA, SIRI, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, COST, MYL, PAYX,
PCAR, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, LLTC, SIAL, CMCSA, MDLZ, LBTYA, MAT, MCHP, BBBY,
EQIX, DISCA, FOSL, ORLY, SPLS, SRCL, DTV, MSFT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0
Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
ADI, ATVI, BRCM, CA, DELL, FFIV,
GOOG, HSIC, NTAP, QCOM
Staying Below 30 DMA
CSCO, WDC,
AAPL, CHKP, CTXS, KRFT, GMCR, NUAN, GOLD, ESRX, VRTX, CTRX, SYMC, ISRG, MNST
Thirteen Week Intermediate
Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Down, NDX, RUT = Neutral
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