Four of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…
and one was unchanged…XLU, XLP and
XLK were the strongest sectors…XLY was the weakest sector.
Breadth strengthened…advancers
led decliners…1.36 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners
led advancers 1.07 to 1 on the NASDAQ…
Friday
- mixed
Thursday - mixed
Wednesday –
strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
Monday – Labor Day
Holiday
SPY
up .08 at 166.04…volume 159.7 million shares
VIX
up .08…at 15.85…
TNX
down .41 at 29.38…
TLT
up .51 at 103.05...
XLF
unchanged at 19.80…volume 39 million shares
AAPL
up 2.95 at 498.22…volume
12.8 million shares
FB
up 1.29 at 43.95…volume 117.5 million shares
Technical Commentary:
IWM + 0.27%, QQQ + 0.12%, SPY + 0.05%, DIA
– 0.02%.
Stocks finished higher on Friday led by the small-cap RUT,
IWM but not before and early morning fade the gap moved had a sharp correction
to the downside which not only filled the gap but fell below Thursday’s
low. After a sharp 30-minute pullback that ended shortly after 10 a.m. eastern
stocks recovered back near their gap high before drifting lower into the close
finishing slightly higher than Thursday.
A classic gap, fade and bounce to shake weak traders out.
Remember, if you had your stop
tight under Thursday’s candle and got stopped out, the trader’s art is to
re-enter the trend when it continues, whether that is in one week, one day or
one hour.
The SPY and IWM both closed
just below their 30 DMA while QQQ has been above its 30 DMA
for three days. Short-term trend is
still up while QQQ is setting up a potential horizontal resistance breakout to
a new high. The MACD divergence
bounce from last week looks to continue to the upside.
The NDX +3.44 was led by points
from AAPL, FB, EBAY and AMZN while AMGN, CSCO and MSFT weighed on
the downside.
FB should be the big obvious for technical traders as the conviction level of big money continued on
Friday. All-time closing high on
volume 117.4 million shares that was more than double Thursday’s 49.9
million shares. Traders who don’t know
what they don’t know may be thinking that big money is ridiculous for
buying FB at Friday’s level. If
that were true why don’t those traders have more money than big money? Just a thought.
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the
trend. As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is
the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’
crowd. The ‘smart money crowd’ is no
mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a
collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the
maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
Short-term market posture continues defensive.
Support Levels
ES = 1,647, 1,629, 1,611
SPY = 165.15, 163.35, 161.55
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME,
JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL,
ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK,
COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP,
QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB,
CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,
FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS,
ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU,
UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS,
OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR,
CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA,
ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX,
EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO,
NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS,
USB, AXP, KO, MOS
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market
is trending up Chart Signals looks
for support bounce and resistance breakout entries.
When the market
is trending down Chart signals looks
for resistance pull back and support break entries.
When the market
is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals
will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs
at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance.
Technical setups for
short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls
or puts.
After earnings look for
bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative
reaction stocks.
The Market Forecast Green Line is
pointed up.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: AAPL, AMAT, AMGN, BIDU, CELG, DELL, ESRX, INTC, NTAP,
NUAN, NVDA, PCLN, SIRI, SNDK, TXN, WYNN, XLNX, YHOO, ANR, ATI, BBRY, CMG, CNX,
CREE, F, GRPN, JNPR, RAX, SINA, TBT, WLT, YOKU,
Diagonal Breakout: GOOG, STX, WDC, WFM, BAC, C, CLF, DNKN, PWRD,
SPY, SWI,
Bull Flag: TSLA, CRM, DDD, GMCR, SSYS,
Potential Bullish Divergence:
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:
At Support: MSFT,
Moves
New Highs: FB, MU, QCOM, CIEN, LNKD, LVS, SPLK,
Gap Up:
Gap Down: MFRM, SCSS,
H&D Breakout: CTSH, EBAY, FAS, JCP, YELP,
Breakout Test:
Bounce:
MACD Divergence Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: MFRM,
______________________
52 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: EXPE, FB, NUAN, BIDU, CTSH,
EXPD, EBAY, ADP,LINTA, XRAY,CELG, ESRX, FISV, VRTX, MDLZ, SBAC
Lagging NDX stocks included:
EQIX, FOSL, SHLD, TSLA, AMGN, MYL, MNST, FAST, SIRI, MXIM, BRCM, LBTYA
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: YELP, CDE, URE, JDSU, UCO, CIEN
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: MFRM,
SCSS, CRUS, Z, GMCR, SINA, DDD
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 58
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, FB, VIAB, NFLX,
QCOM, AAPL, WYNN, DELL, GOLD, NVDA, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, BMC, CTSH, GILD, SBAC,
VOD, NUAN, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, FOXA, LIFE, MU, MXIM, NTAP, REGN,
ROST, VRSK, YHOO, ADBE, ADP, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KALC, SNDK, TXN,
XLNX, AMZN, BRCM, CTRX, FAST, GOOG, LINTA, LMCA, SIRI, VRTX, WDC, XRAY
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
EBAY, ESRX, EXPE, FISV
Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
AMAT, ATVI, EQIX, MYL, SBUX
Staying Below 30 DMA
LBTYA, BIDU, SYMC, FOSL, MSFT,
CTXS, CA, CHKP, ISRG, ORLY, FFIV, MDLZ, PAYX, SPLS, SIAL, HSIC, ADI, CSCO,
LLTC, MCHP, SRCL, BBBY, CMCSA, DISCA, PCAR, MNST, COST, CERN, KRFT, DTV, STX,
MAT
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up
1 comment:
Thanks Dave for your continued excellent analaysis and insights!
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