Friday, August 10, 2012

SPY New High Close Following Low Volume Narrow Range Week...

Six of nine sectors moved higher on Friday… XLI, XLV, and XLU were the strongest sectors.

Breadth weakened slightly as advancers led decliners 1.17 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers on Nasdaq 1.25 to 1

Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers     1,613       1,092
Decliners       1,368       1,369

Friday Highlights:
SPY +23 cents at 140.84 on 99.8 million shares, sitting at horizontal resistance from May.  Friday was the sixth highest close ever, eclipsed only by March 26 and April 2 this year and three trading days in Oct 2007.  Closed above its 30 DMA for the twelfth consecutive day …

VIX down -0.54 at 14.74…
Euro moved down -22 pips, at 1.2282…
TNX down -39 cents at 16.49…
TLT up +63 cents…
XLF up 1 cent at 14.94…

AAPL up +97 cents at 621.70 on 7 million shares...
FB up +79 cents at 21.80 on 25.7 million shares…

The Market Forecast green line is pointed up.


Technical Commentary:
The Euro is in a bull flag pattern with a bullish hammer on Friday.  XLF broke out of horizontal resistance on Monday and stayed above resistance all week even though the Euro pulled back.  The SPY is holding just below horizontal resistance poised to break out to the upside.  The SOX made a new near term high every day this past week which generally bodes well for tech stocks.

 (click on chart to enlarge)

Chart Signals looks for the ten week up trend to continue and look for a potential SPY breakout this next week.  A bull flag bounce to T1 in the Euro could set up the SPY breakout.

Chart Target Insight: 
SPY = 141.66 Fib extension 161.8, 143.10 S&R Measuring
ES = 1,411 Fib extension 161.8, 1,425.75 S&R Measuring


Setup Chart Patterns for Monday
Horizontal or Diagonal Breakout: ANR, ATI, CHL, CLF, CRM, DECK, F, FB, FCX, GES, GRPN, IBM, JDSU, MOS, SINA, STI, SWK, SWKS, VMW, ZION, SPY, DIA, QQQ
           
Bull Flag: HLF, TPX, UCO, SOHU, LNKD, LVS, NTES, CROX, C, URE, SWI, RCL, GS, DHR, IWM

Pennant: BAC, CIEN, FAS, JNPR, RVBD, X


Earnings Reaction Week August 6
Stocks Up
CREE, CTSH, SOHU, ESRX, FOSL, SIRI

Stable
EXPD, LINTA, NUAN, NWSA, NVDA

Stocks Down
PCLN, MNST


56 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: RIMM, STX, NUAN, NFLX, SIRI, DTV, BRCM, CHKP, BIIB, SYMC

Lagging NDX stocks included:  MNST, LINTA, YHOO, EXPE, DLTR, FAST, FSLR, BBBY, NWSA, VMED


Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: GRPN, FB, CDE, WDC, SWKS

Losing stocks < -2.0% on Friday included:  TPX, TSL, SOHU

Stocks to Watch on Monday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 48
MOS, CHL, SLB, WDC, UCO, TPX, SWK, GS, JNPR, RVBD, SWI, CIEN, CROX, CRUS, DHR, HLF, IBM SMH, SWKS, V, VECO, X, CREE, A, C, DE, FAS, FCX, GES, JDSU, LNKD, NKE, RCL, STI, TBT, TIF, ATI, BAC, CDE, CRM, SINA, SOHU, F, ZION, AKS, CLF, DECK, INFA

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
ANR, ICE, LVS

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


Staying Below 30 DMA
NTES, URE, DLR, TLT, ANF, ZAGG, COH, FAZ, TSLA, CMG, ESI, UAL, FB, CSTR, LDK, MCP, GLW, TSL, HUM, GRPN


Ten Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

2 comments:

Mike said...

Dave

Would you say that the SPY in addition to being close to a horizontal breakout is also close to breaking an upward trend channel?
If yes, would a break of both indicate a stronger uptread?

Thanks for your continued efforts towards making us better traders?

Mike

Dave Johnson said...

Mike,

It would depend on where you draw your rising resistance line. No it's not necessarily a stronger up trend.