SPY Breaks Out, Closes Under Resistance for Sixth Day...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday… XLP, XLV, and XLY were the strongest sectors.

Breadth strengthened as decliners led advancers 1.02 to 1 on the NYSE and weakened as decliners led advancers on Nasdaq 1.61 to 1…

Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ

Advancers     1,467         942

Decliners       1,510       1,523

Tuesday’s Highlights:

 SPY gained 2 cents at 140.77 on 102.2 million shares after opening higher hitting an intraday high of 141.38 and then sellers took control just after noon until buyers stepped in during the last hour at 140.37.  The SPY is still sitting at horizontal resistance from May.  Closed above its 30 DMA for the fourteenth consecutive day…

VIX up +1.15 at 14.85…

Euro moved down -9 pips at 1.2321

TNX up +0.72 at 17.26…

TLT down -1.70 at 123.79…

XLF down -2 cents at 14.93…

AAPL up +1.69 at 631.69….

FB down -1.22 cents at 20.38…

GRPN -2.04, -27.02% following EPS on Monday…

The Market Forecast green line is in upper zone.

Technical Commentary:

The Euro rose overnight and then pulled back into the open and began a second pull back about noon.  This coincided with the midday pull back in the SPY.  Interest rates and the VIX rose while Bonds fell and XLF closed down 2 cents and still above old horizontal resistance now new support at 14.85.

The SPY opened above and closed just below horizontal resistance.  The SOX is forming a bull flag pattern.

While the SPY formed a dark cloud cover type candle and the short-term rally is in its eighth day, we still view short term support at

139.80 = SPY

1,387 = ES

2,700 = NQ

Chart Signals looks for the ten week up trend to continue and a potential SPY breakout this week.  A bull flag bounce to T1 in the Euro could set up the SPY breakout.  However, move stops under support and if the SPY does break support protect profits and then look to trade down.

Chart Target Insight: 

SPY = 141.66 Fib extension 161.8, 143.10 S&R Measuring

ES = 1,411 Fib extension 161.8, 1,425.75 S&R Measuring

Setup Chart Patterns

Bull Flag: EXPE, FLSR, MRVL, ALTR, NVDA, KLAC, EA, FOSL, NTAP, ESRX, GOLD, GRMN, LIFE, RAX, CREE,

 

           

Bounce Down at Resistance:  ADBE, ADSK, BRCM, CHKP, FFIV, GMCR, MU, RIMM, LRCX, INTC, BBBY, CTXS,

40 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: MNST, VRTX, NFLX, AMGN, NUAN, GILD, SHLD, VMED, GOOG, WCRX

Lagging NDX stocks included:  GMCR, RIMM, CHKP, FFIV, EXPE, MU, FSLR, BRCM, YHOO, MRVL

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: TSL, TBT

Losing stocks < -2.0% included:  GRPN, CIEN, FB, TSLA, ZAGG, JNPR, ESI, ANR, JDSU, CSTR, MCP, COH, CLF, RVBD, LDK, LNKD, AKS, VMW, DECK

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday…

Holding Above 30 DMA = 45

MOS, CHL, SLB, WDC, UCO, TPX, SWK, GS, JNPR, RVBD, SWI, CIEN, CROX, DHR, HLF, IBM SMH, SWKS, V, VECO, CRUS, X, CREE, A, C, DE, FAS, FCX, GES, JDSU, LNKD, NKE, RCL, STI, TBT, TIF, VMW, ATI, BAC, CDE, CRM, SINA, SOHU, F, AKS, CLF, DECK

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

ZION

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

GRPN, ICE, LNKD, TSLA

Staying Below 30 DMA

ANR, CLF, INFA, LVS, NTES, URE, DLR, TLT, ANF, ZAGG, COH, FAZ, CMG, ESI, UAL, FB, CSTR, LDK, MCP, GLW, TSL, HUM

Ten Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

Short Term Market Trend: Neutral