Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Euro Higher...SPY Pulls Back as Price Target Reached...AAPL Lower...URBN Gaps Higher...

Two of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday…XLF, XLB, and XLY were the strongest sectors.

Breadth was unchanged as decliners led advancers 1.26 to 1 on the NYSE and strengthened slightly as decliners led advancers 1.29 to 1 on the Nasdaq…

Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers     1,298       1,065
Decliners       1,640       1,381


Tuesday Highlights:
SPY moved down 43 centsclosed at 141.76…volume was 105.5 million shares…

VIX down +1.00 at 15.02
Euro up +126 at 1.2469
TNX down -.09 at 18.05…
TLT up +54 cents at 122.39…
XLF up +5 cents at 15.22…

AAPL down -9.09 at 656.06volume 29 million shares after rising $47 over the past five trading day…
FB down -85 cents at 19.16… volume 70.5 million shares…

URBN +5.70, +18.72% on 21.7 million shares following earnings on Monday


The Market Forecast green line is in upper zone.


Technical Commentary:
The Euro rose over 100 pips overnight creating a strong backdrop for stock futures to rise and move higher at the open.  At 10:40 am the SPY peaked at 143.09, one cent shy of our Chart Signals price target of 143.10 and then sold off to close at 141.76.  At the same time the ES futures hit 1,424.75 just 1 point below our Chart Signals price target of 1,425.75. 

Chart Targets: 
SPY = 143.10 S&R Measuring
ES = 1,425.75 S&R Measuring

What do you expect at a chart price target?  Buyers to sell, exactly as Chart Signals teaches.

Pull backs are typical market reactions when price targets are achieved.  Considering both a breakout with a typical return move and the reaching of a price target, a pull back to support seems likely. 

Many charts including the SPY formed bearish candles today.  If a price target was reached the position is closed.  If not, consider moving stops under low of the bearish candle or other short-term support and if the price moves lower protect profits.

Short-term support at
140.92, 139.80 = SPY
1,403, 1,387 = ES
2,743, 2,700 = NQ



Setup Chart Patterns
Bull Flag: EXPE, ALTR, ADSK, INTC, LRCX, MU, NVDA, RIMM, CLF, JNPR, SMH, VECO, COH, SINA, SOHU, VMW, ADP, ALTR, AVGO, BBBY, BIDU, FAST, WYNN

Horizontal or Diagonal Breakout: ADSK, BRCM, CHKP, FFIV, FOSL, GOLD, NTAP, CIEN, CREE, CROX, FCX, LVS, RAX, RCL, RVBD, SLB, SWK, SWKS, ZION, AMZN, BMC, CA, CTXS, MSFT, WFM


Bounce:
Tuesday – GMCR, ESRX, KLAC, SNDK, ATI, X
Monday – GRMN



43 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: FSLR, GMCR, NFLX, INFY, ADSK, NUAN, MRVL, SNDK, ESRX, NWSA

Lagging NDX stocks included:  BIDU, RIMM, WCRX, XRAY, DELL, SHLD, EXPE, AAPL, PNRA, EBAY


Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: TSL, ANR, FCX, C, ATI, LNKD, ESI, INFA

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  FB, CLF, GRPN, COH

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 48
MOS, SLB, WDC, UCO, TPX, SWK, GS, JNPR, RVBD, SWI, CIEN, CROX, DHR, HLF, IBM SMH, SWKS, V, VECO, CRUS, X, CREE, C, FAS, FCX, GES, JDSU, NKE, RCL, STI, TBT, TIF, VMW, ATI, BAC, CDE, CRM, SINA, SOHU, F, AKS, DECK, ZION, ANF, INFA, COH, ICE, LVS, URE, GLW, DE

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
ANR, LNKD, TSL

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


Staying Below 30 DMA
COH, VECO, LNKD, TSLA, A, CHL, NTES, DE, GRPN, ANR, CLF, DLR, TLT, ZAGG, FAZ, CMG, ESI, UAL, FB, CSTR, LDK, MCP, TSL, HUM


Eleven Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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