Wednesday, August 15, 2012

SPY Inches to New High Close as Stocks Bounce and Form Bull Flag Patterns...

Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday… XLF, XLY, and XLV were the strongest sectors.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 1.71 to 1 on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq 2.24 to 1


Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers     1,896       1,720
Decliners       1,108          765


Wednesday Highlights:
SPY gained 16 cents at 140.95 on 71 million shares.  The SPY is still sitting at horizontal resistance of 140.93 from May.  Closed above its 30 DMA for the fifteenth consecutive day…

VIX down - .22 at 14.63…
Euro -31 pips at 1.2290…
TNX up +0.79 at 18.05…
TLT down -1.74 at 122.05…
XLF up .05 cents at 14.98…

AAPL down - .86 at 630.83…volume 9.1 million
FB up .82 cents at 21.20… volume 47.7 million


The Market Forecast green line is in upper zone.


Technical Commentary:
Interest rates rose and bonds dropped big as the VIX and the Euro drifted lower.  XLF closed 5 cents higher and still above old horizontal resistance now new support at 14.85.

The SOX is formed a piercing line candle in a bull flag pattern.

Many stocks had a strong bounce on Wednesday and many others are in classic bull flag patterns listed below.

The SPY rallied to its second highest close in this three and a half year old bull marketIts highest close of 141.11 was on April 2 this yearTh short-term rally is in its ninth day, with sellers still small in size and buyers buying all that is being sold. 
Short-term support at
139.80 = SPY
1,387 = ES
2,700 = NQ

Chart Signals looks for the ten week up trend to continue and a potential SPY breakout this week.  A bull flag bounce to T1 in the Euro could set up the SPY breakout.  However, move stops under support and if the SPY does break support protect profits and then look to trade down.


Chart Target Insight
SPY = 141.66 Fib extension 161.8, 143.10 S&R Measuring
ES = 1,411 Fib extension 161.8, 1,425.75 S&R Measuring


Setup Chart Patterns
Bull Flag: EXPE, ADSK, ALTR, BRCM, CHKP, ESRX, FFIV, FOSL, GMCR, GOLD, GRMN, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MRVL, MU, NVDA, NTAP, RIMM, AKS, ATI, CHL, CIEN, CLF, CREE, CRM, CROX, FCX, JNPR, LVS, RAX, RCL, RVBD, SINA, SLB, SMH, SOHU, SWK, SWKS, VECO, VMW, WDC, X

Bounce:
            Wednesday:  ADBE, AKAM, ALXN, CERN, COST, EA, FAST, FSLR, HSIC, INTU, LIFE, XRAY, DECK, GES, HLF, JDSU, SWI, TBT, ZION

Gap Up
            Wednesday:  ANF

Gap Down:
            Wednesday:  DE
 
           

72 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GMCR, FSLR, AKAM, SBUX, FOSL, EA SYMA CERN, SHLD, SNDK, ADBE, NFLX, FFIV INTU, LINTA PCLN

Lagging NDX stocks included:  SPLS, DLTR, VOD, MU, CTSH, EBAY INTC, NVDA, DTV WCRX, CTXS, RIMM, KFT


Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: ANF, JDSU, FB, NTES, CIEN, DECK, RVBD, TBT, COH, SWI, GES, HLF, JNPR

Losing stocks < -2.0% included:  DE, GRPN, ANR, TSL, SWKS


Stocks to Watch on Thursday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 46
MOS, CHL, SLB, WDC, UCO, TPX, SWK, GS, JNPR, RVBD, SWI, CIEN, CROX, DHR, HLF, IBM SMH, SWKS, V, VECO, CRUS, X, CREE, A, C, DE, FAS, FCX, GES, JDSU, LNKD, NKE, RCL, STI, TBT, TIF, VMW, ATI, BAC, CDE, CRM, SINA, SOHU, F, AKS, DECK, NTES, ZION

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
ANF, INFA

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
DE

Staying Below 30 DMA
GRPN, ICE, LNKD, TSLA, ANR, CLF, LVS, URE, DLR, TLT, ZAGG, COH, FAZ, CMG, ESI, UAL, FB, CSTR, LDK, MCP, GLW, TSL, HUM


Ten Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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