SPX Lower...Holds S1 as Financials, Interest Rates Fall on Friday...SOX Slightly Higher...Friday's Low Key Short-term Support

All nine sectors moved lower on Friday…however XLK, XLB and XLE were the strongest sectors and XLF was the weakest.

 

Breadth was weakened as decliners led advancers 1.67 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.94 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led

Tuesday – mixed, decliners led

Monday – weakened, decliners led

SPY down 2.04 at 203.86 on 158.5 million shares, above average volume

VIX up .54 at 17.55…

TNX down .45 at 19.71…

TLT up 1.37 at 131.02...

XLF down .36 at 24.09 on 29.4 million shares

AAPL up .07 at 111.96 on 53.6 million shares, above average volume

FB down .48 at 77.69…on 21.1 million shares

Technical Commentary:

QQQ – 0.81%, IWM – 0.95%, DIA – 0.98%, SPY – 1.01%.

During the first six trading days of 2015 the SPX has traded lower for four days and higher for two, Wednesday and Thursday.  For the week the SPX is 14 points lower than last Friday.  The VIX which on most days moves inversely to the SPX also fell 0.24 points from 17.79 to 17.55 Friday to Friday.   Basically indicating that fear is about the same as one week ago.

Most of the top losers in the SPX were from the energy sector including OKE, NBR, RIG, DO, HP, FTI, RRC, SWN and SE down -12.42% to -8.26%.  The top loser for the week was URI -13.8% following a downgrade and AVP -12.24% finished third weakest.

SPX weekly gainers included BSX, STZ, MRK, MNST and GILD which gained between 10.82% and 7.69%.

The leading sector on Friday was Technology and the top SPX tech gainers included TRIP, WDC, STX and EMC.  The SOX +.087, +0.13% was stronger than the SPX and led by NXPI +3.19%, CAVM +2.30% (which replaced RFMD) SUNE +1.73%, MXIM +1.57%, ATML +1.32% and AVGO +1.06%.  Financials were the weakest sector on weaker interest rates. 

The positive in addition to a positive SOX was the S1 level of Thursday’s large white candle did hold on the close.

Going into next week the SPX low on Friday of 2,038.33 is a key short-term support for the rally which began on Wednesday.  A move below Friday’s low could indicate a potential move back to Tuesday’s low of 1,992.44.  A lower MFC green line puts us back into a defensive posture seeking to protect profits and ready to go bearish below Friday’s low.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Short-term Chart Targets:

SPY = 203.91, 205.10, 208.97...

QQQ = 102.44, 103.11, 105.26…

IWM = 117.89, 118.72, 121.41…

Support Levels

SPY = 198.85, 196.77...

QQQ = 99.62, 98.20…

IWM = 114.36, 112.61...

The SPX Market Forecast is pointed down at 48.

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Setups

Horizontal Breakout: CTRP, FEYE, GLW, HOG, HPQ, JD, JNPR, NTES, PANW, SWKS, UAL, XONE, YNDX, EA, GMCR, MAR, QCOM, WDC, WYNN,    

Diagonal Breakout: BABA, CREE, EXPE, IBM, SPWR, SUNE, SWI, UA, VRSN, DDD, SSYS, YY, ZU, AAPL, BIDU, GILD, LRCX, MSFT, MYL, SNDK, TRIP,    

At Support: AIG, C, DGLY, GME, STI, ANGI,     

C- Pattern: 

Moves

New Highs: AMBA, AVGO,       

H Breakout: AA, TWTR,         

D Breakout: BX, UBNT, FSLR,   

MACD Divergence Bounce:    

Gap Up: YELP,    

Gap Down: SBUX,       

Support Break: YOKU,    

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26 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: NXPI, DISH, REGN, TRIP, WDC, STX, AVGO, GMCR, WYNN

Lagging NDX stocks included: BBBY, VIP, PCAR, SBUX, AAL, CTRX, SPLS, MAT, ORLY, PCLN, EQIX, DLTR, ISRG, BIIB

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday: YELP, AMBA, TWTR, UBNT

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: DGLY,XONE, GME, FAS, YOKU, SCHW, STI, ZION, DAL, BBY, SCTY, X, KKD, MTW

Stocks to Watch on Monday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 36

ROST, DLTR, AAL, SPLS, EA, WFM, SIAL, BIIB, CHKP, KRFT, VRTX, ILMN, MNST, COST, ISRG, SRCL, AVGO, CERN, ESRX, HSIC, QCOM, TSCO, WDC, ADP, CA, CSCO, CTSH, FB, FISV, GILD, GMCR, LVNTA, MAR, NXPI, PAYX, SIRI

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

STX, TRIP

Moving Below 30 DMA = 13

BBBY, CELG, CTRX, DTV, EBAY, FAST, LMCA, MDLZ, MSFT, MYL, ORLY, SBUX, VRSK                            

Staying Below 30 DMA

ADI, AKAM, AMAT, BRCM, CHRW, CHTR, CMCSA, DISCA, FOXA, KLAC, LBTYA, LLTC, NFLX PCAR, PCLN, VIAB, ADSK, EXPD, MAT, MU, ADBE, ALTR, CTXS, DISH, EQIX, GOOG, INTC, INTU, SYMC, TXN, YHOO, AAPL, LRCS, NVDA, REGN, NTAP, SNDK, AMGN, VOD, XLNX, ALXN, ATVI, SBAC, AMZN, GRMN, BIDU, TSLA, VIP, WYNN

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral