All nine sectors moved
lower on Monday…XLV, XLP and XLU were the strongest sectors and
XLE was the weakest.
Breadth was weakened as decliners led advancers 3.35 to 1
on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 2.44 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened, mixed
Thursday – New Year’s
Day Holiday
Wednesday – mixed,
decliners led
Tuesday – weakened,
decliners led
SPY down 3.29 at 202.14 on 169.2 million shares, above average volume
VIX up 2.13 at 19.92…
TNX down .84 at 20.39…
TLT up 2.07 at 129.39...
XLF down .51 at 24.22 on 40.9 million shares, above average volume
AAPL down 2.93 at 106.40 on 64.2 million shares, above average volume
FB down 1.12 at 77.33…on 26.3 million shares
Technical Commentary:
IWM – 1.10%,
QQQ – 1.31%, SPY –
1.60%, DIA – 1.65%.
Look for bull flag setups in stocks that are
up trending or reversal breakouts from stocks that recently pulled back.
Trade with the trend of
the chart you are trading and
continue to move your profit protection stops. Continue to follow your rules.
Presidential Term
Cycle
2015 is the third year of the
presidential term. Since 1945 there
have been 17 complete presidential terms through 2012. This four-year period has become known as the
Presidential Term Cycle (PTC). The third
year is the only year of the PTC that has produced a positive return in the SPX
100% of the time since 1945. Here
is the summary performance of the SPX for each of the four calendar years
in the PTC.
Year Up
Years Avg. Annual Return
1 59% 10.43%
2 65% 9.42%
3 100% 19.98%
4 82% 10.05%
While the
future is never determined by the past, the past does give us context for
forming a realistic expectation of the present rather than just making a
subjective guess, which way too many commentators do.
While the
average return for the third year was 19.98%, not one of
the third years produced a 19.98% return.
The range of returns was 2.07% to 38.46%. Four of the years had returns
from 2.07% to 5.69%. Three
of the years returned from 11.59% to 18.69%. Ten of the years produced
returns from 21.11% to 38.46%.
Chart Signals expects the combination of
improving macro-economic environment and this historical cycle, which has been
largely influenced through the decades by an accommodative Fed policy during
the third year in an effort to produce a positive economic environment during
an election year, to produce a continuing up trend during 2015. Investors will need to trade the actual
market action as it unfolds during the year whether it is up, sideways or
down.
Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 207.33, 209.06, 210.49...
QQQ = 106.94…
IWM = 119.90, 121.88,
124.07…
Support Levels
SPY = 207.33, 204.24...
QQQ = 103.08, 102.40…
IWM = 118.34, 116.15...
Q3 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – ADBE, CIEN, LULU, AVGO,
ADI, HPQ, PANW, QIHU, ADSK, JASO, ROST, SPLK, GOGO, RAX, NTES, XONE,
YOKU, VJET, BABA, MNST, WFM, ABC, ACI, AMGN, BIDU, BWLD, CBOE,
CLF, CLX, CNX, EA, ESRX, EQIX, EXPE, FISV, GLW, GPRO, GRPN, GT, HSY, JCI, JDSU,
LNKD, LVLT, MA, MAR, MO, MTW, MYL, PCAR, FE, SCHN, STX, SWI, SWKS, TASR, V, WY,
X, WHR, AAPL, ALK, ALXN, APOL,
BMY, BRCM, CAT, CELG, CERN, CHKP, CMCSA, CNI, EMC, EW, GD, HAL, HAS, HOG, ILMN,
IM, KLAC, KMB, LLY, LRCX, LXK, MMM, MXIM, MSFT, N, ORLY, PG, RMD, STLD, STT,
SWK, TRV, TSCO, TXN, UNP, VRSN, WOOF, YHOO, YNDX, ZION, AMD, C, CSX,
DAL, GE, HON, LVS, MS, SCHW, SLB, STI, URI, XLNX, COST, BBBY,
BBRY, MU, NKE, PAYX, LULU, PANW, ULTA, MFRM, SPLK,
More than 10% - GOGO, RAX, WFM, GPRO,
GPRN, LNKD, BWLD, SWI, N, EW, TSCO, NKE, ULTA, LULU, PANW, MFRM,
Negative Reactions – COST, AMBA,
MFRM, GME, CRM, JD, MBLY, SINA, YY, SWKS, FEYE,
FSLR, PCLN, QCOM, TRIP, SCTY, SSYS, SUNE, UBNT, Z, ZU, AEM, CHRW, COH, FB,
GRMN, KRFT, MDC, MRK, NEM, PNRA, RGR, SLCA, TPX, TWTR, ALTR, AMZN, BA,
BTU, CMG, CREE, DECK, DNKN, DOW, EAT, F, GM, IBM, JNPR, KO, LMT, LUV, NDAQ, P,
UA, VMW, XRX, YELP, AXP, BAC, COF, EBAY, GOOGL, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KEY,
MAT, NFLX, WFC, AZO, ADBE, KKD, CIEN,
More than -10% - GME, CSIQ, FSLR,
UBNT, ZU, AEM, P, TPX,
Reversal in progress – PCLN, TPX, KO,
Reversal of Initial
Reaction – AMZN, FEYE, SWKS, Z, ADBE, ALTR, ALTR, AXP, AZO, BA, BAC, BTU, CHRW, CMG,
COF, COH, CREE, DECK, DNKN, DOW, EAT, EBAY, F, GM, GOGO, GOOGL, GRMN, INTC,
JNJ, JNPR, JPM, KEY, KKD, KO, KRFT, LMT, LUV, MAT, MDC, MRK, NDAQ, PNRA, UA,
VMW, WFC, XRX,
The SPX Market Forecast is at 73.
___________________
Setups
Diagonal Breakout: MBLY,
Bull Flag: BAC, CAR, CIEN, DAL, ETFC, GLW, HPQ, IWM, JNPR,
LNKD, MS, RAX, RCL, SCHW, SPY, UAL, V, COST, EA, ESRX, QCOM, ROST, STX, WDC,
WFM,
At Support: NKE, ANR, P, SSYS, TPX, AAPL, BIDU, GMCR, MAR, NTAP,
Moves
D Breakout: JD, LOCO
Bounce: FEYE, GME, PANW,
YY
Gap Down: ATI
Support Break: AA, BABA, BBY, EXPE, UA, X, Z, FSLR, TBT, ZU, GRMN, SNDK,
______________________
8 out of 100 NDX stocks
closed higher on Monday.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ILMN, GILD, MNST, REGN
Lagging NDX stocks included: VIP, NFLX, LBTYA, CHRW, TSLA, DISCA, PCLN,
CHTR, VOD, NTAP, PCAR, CTRX, AMAT, EXPD
Leading stocks > +2% on Monday:
JD, FEYE, JCP, PANW
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:
MTW, CSIQ, ATI, Z, SCTY, AA, FAS, SPWR,
JASO, SUNE, X, TSL, YELP, CREE, ZION, LC, CAR, STI, SCHW, SPLK
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 20
ROST, DLTR, AAL, SPLS,
BBBY, EA, WFM, AVGO, WDC, SIAL, BIIB, CHKP, FAST, KRFT, QCOM, CERN, ESRX, VRTX,
NXPI, CA
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
ILMN, MNST
Moving Below 30 DMA = 33
ADI, AKAM, AMAT, BRCM,
CELG, CHRW, CHTR, CMCSA, COST, CSCO, CTRX, DISCA, DTV, EBAY, FB, FOXA, HSIC,
ISRG, KLAC, LBTYA, LLTC, LVNTA, MAR, NFLX, ORLY, PCAR, PCLN, SBUX, SRCL, TRIP,
TSCO, VIAB, VRSK
Staying Below 30 DMA
ADSK, EXPD, FISV, MAT, MU, STX, ADBE, ALTR, CTSH, CTXS, DISH, EQIX, GOOG,
INTC, INTU, LMCA, MYL, SIRI, SYMC, TXN, YHOO, AAPL, ADP, LRCX, NVDA, REGN,
MSFT, NTAP, PAYX, SNDK, AMGN, VOD, GILD, XLNX, MDLZ, ALXN, ATVI, SBAC, AMZN,
GRMN, BIDU, TSLA, VIP, GMCR, WYNN
6-month Intermediate
Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market
Trend: Down
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