Friday, January 30, 2015

SPX Ends Near Short-term Support after Volatile Trading Session...Energy Gains...

Eight of nine sectors moved lower on Friday…XLE, XLB and XLY were the strongest sectors and XLU was the weakest.
 
Breadth weakened as advancers led decliners 2.11 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.03 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY down 2.54 at 199.45 on 197.7 million shares, above average volume
VIX up 2.21 at 20.97…
TNX down .76 at 16.75…
TLT up 2.41 at 138.28...
XLF down .38 at 23.01 on 52.4 million shares

AAPL down 1.74 at 117.16 on 83.7 million shares
FB down 2.09 at 75.91…on 42.6 million shares

Technical Commentary:
QQQ -0.78%, SPY -1.26%, DIA -1.41%, IWM -2.20%.

Sellers and buyers battled it out on Friday in a volatile trading session the sent the SPX to its lowest close in two weeks.  The SPX closed near its 1,288 short-term support.

The VIX 20.97 ended January with its highest monthly close since May of 2012 when it closed at 24.06.

Positive earnings reactions from AMZN +13.71% and BIIB +10.17% led the SPX. Oil and gas stocks NBR, CAM, NFX, MRO, HP, RIG, QEP, PXD, MPC and MUR were SPX leaders gaining between 2% - 8%.


The SPX is at its January support level and has a new MACD histogram bullish divergence.  The divergence suggests that the short-term downtrend is getting weaker.  A bounce or continuation of the sideways trend is more probable than a break of support, however traders should be prepared for a potential break of supportThe next support level below 1,988 is the December support of 1,972.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 202.15, 203.83, 205.06...
QQQ = 102.01, 103.17, 104.58
IWM = 117.84, 119.19, 119.45…

Support Levels
SPY = 200.20, 198.55, 196.77...
QQQ = 100.48, 99.36, 97.94
IWM = 116.57, 115.32, 114.20...

Earnings this week:
Monday: 
Tuesday:  ADI, CHRW, FISV, GILD
Wednesday: ADP, CTSH, FOXA, GMCR, NXPI, ORLY, SRCL, ATML,
Thursday:  ATVI, CTXS, SIAL, SIRI, SYMC, VOD
Friday: 

Q4 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – AMZN, AAPL, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CAVM, CELG, EA, FB, FSL, GLW, HOG, JNPR, TSCO, TSS, TUP, VIAB, WDC, X, NFLX, ALK, BHI, CREE, DAL, EBAY, ETFC, GE, HON, KMB, LUV, MXIM, SBUX, SWKS, TRV, UAL, UNH, UNP, SNX, LLTC, TSM

More than 10% - AMZN, BIIB, NFLX, FSL, EA, TUP, X

Negative Reactions – QCOM, JDSU, RCL, BABA, PCAR, YHOO, MSFT, STX, VRTX, AAL, ZION, AXP, ALTR, FFIV, IBM, ISRG, JNJ, KLAC, KSU, MCD, STT, XLNX, AA, BAC, C, JPM, KBH, WFC,

More than -10% - QCOM, FFIV, KBH,

Reversal in progress – BAC, C, IBM, JNJ, JPM, 


Reversal of Initial Reaction – WFC


The SPX Market Forecast is pointed down at 40.

___________________

Setups
Horizontal Breakout:  VXX, X, BRCM, COST, PANW, SSYS, SWI,
Diagonal Breakout:  AMBA, JCP, STI,
Bull Flag: GLW, CREE, CTRP, DAL, ETFC, GME, JD, JNPR, KKD, LOCO, NTES, SCSS, UAL, MNST, CELG, VOD, NFLX, ILMN, SBAC, DLTR
Potential Bullish Divergence:  SPY, AIG, BAC, C, CAR, FAS, LC, MS, NKE, RAX, SCHW, MU, ALTR, AMGN, ADI, AKAM

Moves
New Highs: BX
Bull Flag Bounce:  GLD, GDX, JNUG
Gap Up:  V, AMZN, BIIB, GOOG
Support Break: HPQ
______________________


14 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two were unchanged on Friday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: AMZN, BIIB, VIP, GOOG, BRCM, COST, DLTR, ATVI, LBTYA, GILD

Lagging NDX stocks included: PCAR, AAL, VIAB, LRCX, DISH, GMCR, STX, MSFT, WDC, VRTX

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday: X, UPL, FEYE, JASO, CSIQ, V, TWTR, GLD, TSL

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: JDSU, DAL, UAL, MFRM, SFUN, CIEN HOG, HPQ, FAS, SPLK, LC, KKD, VSLR, CRM, GME, MTW, NKE, JCP, ETFC, BBY, AMBA, SUNE, SCSS, RCL, PANW, IWM, GPRO, AA


Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 28
WFM, SIAL, KRFT, MNST, AVGO, CTSH, FISV, SIRI, NXPI, CELG, ATVI, BIIB, CERN, GILD, VOD, NFLX, EA, ILMN, SBUX, SBAC, LVNTA, AMZN, DLTR, VRSK, TSCO, AAPL, ALXN, REGN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
BRCM, COST, GOOG

Moving Below 30 DMA = 13
AAL, BBBY, CTRX, DISH, EXPD, FB, HSIC, LRCX, ORLY, ROST, SRCL, TXN, WYNN                     

Staying Below 30 DMA
VRTX, ADP, BIDU, CHKP, CHRW, GOOG, GRMN, LLTC, MYL, PAYX, SYMC, LMCA, MAR, ADBE, CA, CMCSA, COST, CSCO, DTV, EBAY, ESRX, MSFT, NVDA, YHOO, EQIX, AMAT, FAST, INTC, ISRG, KLAC, MDLZ, GMCR, BRCM, VIP, SPLS, WDC, QCOM, STX, TRIP, AKAM, PCAR, PCLN, VIAB, ADI, DISCA, LBTYA, FOXA, CHTR, ADSK, MAT, MU, ALTR, CTXS, INTU, NTAP, SNDK, AMGN, XLNX, TSLA

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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