Eight of nine sectors
moved lower on Friday…XLE, XLB and XLY were the strongest sectors and
XLU was the weakest.
Breadth weakened as advancers led
decliners 2.11 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.03 to 1 on
the NASDAQ.
Friday – weakened,
decliners led
Thursday – strengthened,
advancers led
Wednesday – weakened,
decliners led
Tuesday – weakened,
decliners led
Monday – strengthened,
advancers led
SPY down 2.54 at 199.45 on 197.7 million shares, above average volume
VIX up 2.21 at 20.97…
TNX down .76 at 16.75…
TLT up 2.41 at 138.28...
XLF down .38 at 23.01 on 52.4 million shares
AAPL down 1.74 at 117.16 on 83.7 million shares
FB down 2.09 at 75.91…on 42.6 million shares
Technical Commentary:
QQQ -0.78%, SPY
-1.26%, DIA -1.41%, IWM
-2.20%.
Sellers and buyers battled it out on Friday in a
volatile trading session the sent the SPX to its lowest close in two weeks. The SPX closed near its 1,288 short-term
support.
The VIX 20.97
ended January
with its highest monthly close since May of 2012 when it
closed at 24.06.
Positive
earnings reactions from AMZN +13.71% and
BIIB +10.17% led the SPX. Oil and
gas stocks NBR, CAM, NFX, MRO, HP, RIG, QEP, PXD, MPC and MUR were
SPX leaders gaining between 2% - 8%.
The SPX is at its January support level and has a new
MACD histogram bullish divergence.
The divergence suggests that the short-term downtrend is getting weaker. A bounce or continuation of the sideways
trend is more probable than a break of support, however traders
should be prepared for a potential break of support. The next support level below 1,988 is the
December support of 1,972.
Trade with the trend of
the chart you are trading and
continue to move your profit protection stops. Continue to follow your rules.
Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 202.15, 203.83, 205.06...
QQQ = 102.01, 103.17, 104.58 …
IWM = 117.84, 119.19, 119.45…
Support Levels
SPY = 200.20, 198.55, 196.77...
QQQ = 100.48, 99.36, 97.94…
IWM = 116.57, 115.32, 114.20...
Earnings this week:
Monday:
Tuesday: ADI, CHRW, FISV, GILD
Wednesday: ADP, CTSH,
FOXA, GMCR, NXPI, ORLY, SRCL, ATML,
Thursday: ATVI, CTXS, SIAL, SIRI, SYMC, VOD
Friday:
Q4 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – AMZN,
AAPL, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CAVM, CELG, EA, FB, FSL, GLW, HOG, JNPR, TSCO, TSS, TUP, VIAB,
WDC, X, NFLX, ALK, BHI, CREE, DAL, EBAY, ETFC, GE, HON, KMB, LUV, MXIM, SBUX,
SWKS, TRV, UAL, UNH, UNP, SNX, LLTC, TSM
More than 10% - AMZN, BIIB, NFLX, FSL, EA, TUP, X
Negative Reactions – QCOM,
JDSU, RCL, BABA, PCAR, YHOO, MSFT, STX, VRTX, AAL, ZION, AXP, ALTR, FFIV, IBM,
ISRG, JNJ, KLAC, KSU, MCD, STT, XLNX, AA, BAC, C, JPM, KBH, WFC,
More than -10% - QCOM, FFIV, KBH,
Reversal in progress – BAC, C, IBM, JNJ, JPM,
Reversal of Initial Reaction – WFC
The SPX Market Forecast is pointed down at 40.
___________________
Setups
Horizontal Breakout: VXX, X, BRCM, COST, PANW, SSYS, SWI,
Diagonal Breakout: AMBA, JCP, STI,
Bull Flag: GLW, CREE, CTRP, DAL, ETFC, GME, JD, JNPR,
KKD, LOCO, NTES, SCSS, UAL, MNST, CELG, VOD, NFLX, ILMN, SBAC, DLTR
Potential Bullish
Divergence: SPY, AIG, BAC, C, CAR, FAS, LC, MS, NKE, RAX,
SCHW, MU, ALTR, AMGN, ADI, AKAM
Moves
New Highs: BX
Bull Flag Bounce: GLD, GDX, JNUG
Gap Up: V, AMZN, BIIB, GOOG
Support Break: HPQ
______________________
14 out of 100 NDX stocks
closed higher and two were unchanged on Friday.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: AMZN, BIIB, VIP, GOOG, BRCM, COST, DLTR, ATVI,
LBTYA, GILD
Lagging NDX stocks included: PCAR, AAL, VIAB, LRCX, DISH, GMCR, STX, MSFT,
WDC, VRTX
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday:
X, UPL, FEYE, JASO, CSIQ, V, TWTR, GLD, TSL
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:
JDSU, DAL, UAL, MFRM, SFUN, CIEN HOG,
HPQ, FAS, SPLK, LC, KKD, VSLR, CRM, GME, MTW, NKE, JCP, ETFC, BBY, AMBA, SUNE,
SCSS, RCL, PANW, IWM, GPRO, AA
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 28
WFM, SIAL,
KRFT, MNST, AVGO, CTSH, FISV, SIRI, NXPI, CELG, ATVI, BIIB, CERN, GILD, VOD, NFLX,
EA, ILMN, SBUX, SBAC, LVNTA, AMZN, DLTR, VRSK, TSCO, AAPL, ALXN, REGN
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
BRCM, COST, GOOG
Moving Below 30 DMA = 13
AAL, BBBY, CTRX, DISH,
EXPD, FB, HSIC, LRCX, ORLY, ROST, SRCL, TXN, WYNN
Staying Below 30 DMA
VRTX, ADP, BIDU, CHKP, CHRW, GOOG, GRMN, LLTC, MYL, PAYX, SYMC, LMCA,
MAR, ADBE, CA, CMCSA, COST, CSCO, DTV, EBAY, ESRX, MSFT, NVDA, YHOO, EQIX,
AMAT, FAST, INTC, ISRG, KLAC, MDLZ, GMCR, BRCM, VIP, SPLS, WDC, QCOM, STX,
TRIP, AKAM, PCAR, PCLN, VIAB, ADI, DISCA, LBTYA, FOXA, CHTR, ADSK, MAT, MU,
ALTR, CTXS, INTU, NTAP, SNDK, AMGN, XLNX, TSLA
6-month Intermediate
Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down
