Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Energy Leads Massive Stock Rally...Small Caps, Materials, Financials and Semis add Big Gains

All of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLE, XLB and XLF were the strongest sectors and XLI was the weakest.
 
Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners7.68 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.14 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened slightly, decliners led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY up 3.88 at 201.79 on 239.5 million shares, more than double the average volume
VIX down 4.13 at 19.44…
TNX up .77 at 21.48…
TLT down 1.15 at 126.45...
XLF up .54 at 24.23 on 43.5 million shares, above average volume

AAPL up 2.66 at 109.41 on 49.2 million shares
FB up 1.42 at 76.11…on 28.7 million shares

Technical Commentary:
IWM +3.09%, SPY +1.96%, QQQ +1.82%, DIA +1.60%.

Futures rose overnight and SPY opened 60 cents higher.  After rising another dollar in the first 30 minutes of trading, SPY traded in a range until about 10 minutes before the Fed announcement when it rose another $2.  In typical Fed volatility fashion SPY gave back that $2 before rising into to close up $3.88 for the day.

S&P futures trading has shifted to the March contract ESH5 from the Dec contract. ESZ4 stops trading at the close tomorrow.

Energy sector XLE gained a massive 4.15%.  Materials XLB +2.73% and financials XLF +2.28% also had big positive days.  XLE, XLB and XLF each closed above Tuesday’s high ahead of SPY, a sign of sector strength.

Semiconductors SOX which had small gains in the morning had a big late rally starting just before the Fed announcement finished with a 2.16% gain. Twenty-nine of 30 stocks rose led by SUNE +5.55%, ONNN, RFMD, NVDA, NXPI, SWKS, TER, ARMH and MU.  AMAT gave a bull flag bounce entry today.  ADI, ALTR, ATML, AVGO, INTC, KLAC, LLTC and TXN continue to be bull flag setupsWatch for potential entry on Thursday.

The NDX +75.50 was led by gains in MSFT, INTC, QCOM, AMGN, GILD, FB, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, BIIB, PCLN, REGN, FOXA and YHOO.

Lending Club, LC, +1.90, +7.31% gained for the fifth straight day on its fifth day of trading.

ADBE is a terrific looking earnings flag.

Look for bull flag setups in stocks that are still in an uptrend.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 207.33, 209.06, 210.49...
QQQ = 106.94
IWM = 118.25, 119.37, 121.27…
Support Levels
SPY = 200.06...
QQQ = 102.42, 101.38
IWM = 114.37, 113.35...


Q3 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – ADBE, CIEN, LULU, AVGO, ADI, HPQ, PANW, QIHU, ADSK, JASO, ROST, SPLK, GOGO, RAX, NTES, XONE, YOKU, VJET, BABA, MNST, WFM, ABC, ACI, AMGN, BIDU, BWLD, CBOE, CLF, CLX, CNX, EA, ESRX, EQIX, EXPE, FISV, GLW, GPRO, GRPN, GT, HSY, JCI, JDSU, LNKD, LVLT, MA, MAR, MO, MTW, MYL, PCAR, FE, SCHN, STX, SWI, SWKS, TASR, V, WY, X, WHR,  AAPL, ALK, ALXN, APOL, BMY, BRCM, CAT, CELG, CERN, CHKP, CMCSA, CNI, EMC, EW, GD, HAL, HAS, HOG, ILMN, IM, KLAC, KMB, LLY, LRCX, LXK, MMM, MXIM, MSFT, N, ORLY, PG, RMD, STLD, STT, SWK, TRV, TSCO, TXN, UNP, VRSN, WOOF, YHOO, YNDX, ZION, AMD, C, CSX, DAL, GE, HON, LVS, MS, SCHW, SLB, STI, URI, XLNX, COST, BBBY, BBRY, MU, NKE, PAYX, LULU, PANW, ULTA, MFRM, SPLK,

More than 10% - GOGO, RAX, WFM, GPRO, GPRN, LNKD, BWLD, SWI, N, EW, TSCO, NKE, ULTA, LULU, PANW, MFRM,

Negative Reactions – COST, AMBA, MFRM, GME, CRM, JD, MBLY, SINA, YY, SWKS, FEYE, FSLR, PCLN, QCOM, TRIP, SCTY, SSYS, SUNE, UBNT, Z, ZU, AEM, CHRW, COH, FB, GRMN, KRFT, MDC, MRK, NEM, PNRA, RGR, SLCA, TPX, TWTR, ALTR, AMZN, BA, BTU, CMG, CREE, DECK, DNKN, DOW, EAT, F, GM, IBM, JNPR, KO, LMT, LUV, NDAQ, P, UA, VMW, XRX, YELP, AXP, BAC, COF, EBAY, GOOGL, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KEY, MAT, NFLX, WFC, AZO, ADBE, KKD, CIEN,

More than -10% - GME, CSIQ, FSLR, UBNT, ZU, AEM, P, TPX,

Reversal in progress – GOGO, P, PCLN, TPX, KO,

Reversal of Initial Reaction – AMZN, FEYE, SWKS, Z, ADBE, ALTR, ALTR, AXP, AZO, BA, BAC, BTU, CHRW, CMG, COF, COH, CREE, DECK, DNKN, DOW, EAT, EBAY, F, GM, GOOGL, GRMN, INTC, JNJ, JNPR, JPM, KEY, KKD, KO, KRFT, LMT, LUV, MAT, MDC, MRK, NDAQ, PNRA, UA, VMW, WFC, XRX,

The SPY Market Forecast is at 28.

___________________

Setups
Horizontal Breakout: CIEN, MNST, MYL, WDC,   
Diagonal Breakout: LNKD, SOHU, AAPL, AKAM, BRCM, CELG, CMCSA, COST, ESRX, FFIV, GILD, GMCR, GRMN, ILMN, MAR, MU, NFLX, SBUX, SNDK, YHOO,   
Bull Flag:  ADI, ALTR, ATML, AVGO, INTC, KLAC, LLTC, TXN, ADBE, EBAY, EXPE, FFIV, ROST, EA, TRIP, STX,
Potential Bullish Divergence: BIDU

Moves
New Highs: RCL, SCSS,    
H Breakout: ANGI,     
D Breakout: BABA, DGLY, HPQ, DDD, QCOM   
Bull Flag Bounce: WDC,  
Bounce: AA, ANGI, ATI, BAC, BBY, BX, C, CAR, EMC, ETFC, FAS, FEYE, GLW, GOGO, IWM, JD, MBLY, MS, NKE, PANW, RAX, SCHW, SPLK, SPY, STI, SUNE, SWKS, UA, V, VRSN, X, XONE, ZION, FSLR, P, SSYS, TBT, TPX, UPL, YNDX, YY, AAPL, ADBE, AKAM, AVGO, CELG, CMCSA, COST, DTV, FB, FFIV, GILD, GOOGL, GRMN, ILMN, INTC, LOCO, MSFT, MU, MYL, NFLX, NTAP, PCLN, QCOM, SBUX, STX, TSLA, TXN, WDC,    
MACD Divergence Bounce: BBRY, CTRP, MNST, CRM
Gap Down: LVS,    

______________________


93 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: VIP, NFLX, TSLA, NVDA, NXPI, REGN, WDC, MU, MYL, DISCA, YHOO, FOXA, PCLN, ILMN, STX, QCOM, CTXS, AAPL, ISRG

Lagging NDX stocks included: EXPD, WYNN

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday: DGLY, RCL, FAS, LC, BBRY, CRM, SUNE, SPLK, UBNT, JCP, BBY, ATI, ETFC,GOGO, UA, BX, SWKS, SCHW, YELP, AA, X, HPQ, CTRP, FEYE, XONE, BABA, BAC, CAR, SPWR, CIEN

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:


Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 21
ROST, DLTR, ORLY, TSCO, BBBY, PCAR, SPLS, INTU, AMAT, WFM, AVGO, WDC, ADI, ALTR, EBAY, LLTC, MXIM, FOXA, SIAL, BIIB, ADBE

Moving Above 30 DMA = 26
ADP, CELG, CHKP, CHTR, CMCSA, CSCO, DISCA, EQIX, FAST, FB, FFIV, HSIC, INTC, KLAC, KRFT, LBTYA, MNST, NXPI, QCOM, REGN, SBUX, STX, TRIP, TXN, VIAB, VRSK

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


Staying Below 30 DMA
BRCM, DISH, ESRX, EXPD, EXPE, MAR, AMGN, CHRW, GILD, VRTX, XLNX, YHOO, CA, COST, CTRX, MAT, MDLZ, MU, NVDA, SNDK, SRCL, SYMC, VOD, AAPL, ADSK, AKAM, ALXN, ATVI, CERN, CTSH, FISV, ISRG, MYL, NTAP, ILMN, CTXS, MSFT, PAYX, SBAC, AMZN, LMCA, LMCK, SIRI, GRMN, DTV, PCLN, BIDU, GOOG, TSLA, VIP, GMCR, WYNN, NFLX

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

No comments: