Tuesday, March 25, 2014

DIA, SPY, QQQ Gain as VIX Drops...Financials Flat as Industrials, Energy and Healthcare Lead...AAPL, X, GLW, ATI, STX and WDC Move Higher...

Seven of nine sectors moved higher Tuesday…XLI, XLE and XLV were the strongest sectors…XLY was the weakest sector.    

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 1.45 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.01 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – mixed, mixed
Thursday – strengthened, mixed
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led


SPY up .88 at 186.31 on 103.7 million shares
VIX down 1.07 at 14.02…
TNX up .02 at 27.35…
TLT down -.41 at 108.59...
XLF down .02 at 22.37 on 34.2 million shares

AAPL up 5.80 at 544.99 on 10.1 million shares, above average volume
FB up .79 at 64.89…on 68.7 million shares, above average volume


Technical Commentary: 
DIA +0.58%, SPY +0.47%, QQQ +0.33%, IWM -0.02%.

The SPX opened up and moved higher to 1,871 during the first hour of trading and then moved lower to 1,856 at mid-day.  Buyers returned and the SPX rose to close at 1,865, up 8.18 points for the day.  The VIX dropped to 14.02 its lowest close since March 5.

Financial stocks were weak with XLF closing down 2 cents.  Interest rates were flat and bonds TLT lost 41 cents.  The Euro lost just 12 pips.  Gold GLD gained 23 cents and formed a bullish harami pattern.

The NDX +12.34, +0.34% was led by AAPL, CSCO, INTC, FB, AMZN, GILD, QCOM and CELG which combined for 15.8 NDX points on Tuesday.  The other 46 NDX gainers combined with the 45 NDX decliners to produce -3.46 NDX points.


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:

SPY = 187.15, 189.25, 190.55…
QQQ = 90.96, 92.25, 93.05
IWM = 118.71, 120.64, 121.84…

Support Levels
SPY = 184.44, 183.75, 182.60
QQQ = 88.87, 87.35, 86.49
IWM = 116.19, 115.58


Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – KKD, MFRM, KKD, BIG, FL, JOY, DRYS, TSL, DDD, MNST, ROST, YOKU, CRM, SHLD, ANF, TGT, DLTR, LOW, HD, M, SCTY, ZU, PCLN, DISH, INTU, AEE, MDRX, ALEX, DTV, TSLA, GRMN, SWY, KRFT, AMAT, CTRP, NVDA, SPWR, TRIP, REGN, CBOE, MCO, ATVI, AKAM, EXPE, GMCR, NXPI, ONNN, ORLY, SCSS, SWI, TWX, DIS, YELP, AGNC, KORS, KEYW, IDXX, XYL, YUM, NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG, GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, UA, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL, CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL

Negative Reactions – GOGO, CIEN, COST, CSIQ, HOV, MCP, SSYS, ADSK, CRM, FSLR, SINA, ESRX, GRPN, YNDX, KO, A, GNC, WTW, VFC, WFM, ANGI, CSCO, DISCA, NTAP, RAX, CI, LNKD, TPX, VRSN, ADP, CTSH, HUM, MDC, P, TSO, TWTR, ADM, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, DDD, SFLY, GILD, CVX, MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA, CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN (104)

Reversal in progress –ADSK, A, CSX, CVX, GS, COF, GOGO, JNJ, IBM, JCI, KO, LNKD, MA, RAX, STX, WFM (16, 16%)

Reversal of Initial Reaction – FSLR, AA, AAPL, ABT, ADP, ADM, ALTR, ATI, BAX, BWLD, DISCA, CELG, CERN, CL, CSCO, CTSH, CTXS, CRUS, DD, DDD, EMC, ESRX, FAST, FDO, FSLR, GILD, GLW, HAL, HOG, HON, HUM, ISRG, KEY, KLAC, LMT, MDC, MMM, P, PCAR, POT, SFLY, SHW, SINA, SWK, TPX, TSCO, TSO, UNH, VZ,  VFC, VMW, VRSN, WDC, WHR,  XOM, YHOO, ZION (58, 55%)


The Market Forecast SPX Green Line closed lower at 83.71 while the SPY closed lower at 79.41.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: C, MFRM, TLT, GRMN, WDC,
Diagonal Breakout: AAL, BX, GOGO, JNPR, PANW, SWI, TPX, ZION, LVS, QIHU, COST, DTV, EBAY, FB, TRIP,
Bull Flag: BAC, ETFC, FAS, JDSU, MS, MTW, RCL, SCHW, STI, SWKS, UBNT, Z, SBUX, TXN,
One Day: FSLR,
Potential Bullish Divergence: BBRY, CTRP, ESI, IWM, SPY, SPWR, UAL, ANGI, CRM, CSIQ, DDD, P, SOHU, SSYS, YELP, YNDX, YOKU, ADSK, CMCSA, FFIV, GMCR, GOOG, MU, NTAP, PCLN, TSLA, WYNN,
Gap Up
Gap Down:     
Bear Flag: NTES, WLT,
At Support: BX, CREE, GOGO, IWM, KKD, SPWR, TBT, V, LNKD, QIHU, SCTY, SFUN, SOHU, SPLK, AMZN, MNST, NFLX, ROST, WYNN,
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: ATI, GLW, IBM, XLNX,
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
H Breakout: GLW, IBM, X, AAPL, STX,
Diagonal Breakout: AAL, SCSS,
Breakout Test:
Bull Flag Bounce: INTC, QCOM, SBUX,
Bounce: JNPR, MFRM, SPY, TBT, RAX, UNG,
MACD Divergence Bounce: GILD,  
Bear Flag
Support Break: SINA, TWTR, YHOO,

______________________


54 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Tuesday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: STX, CSCO, ALXN, CELG, WDC, ALTR, PCAR, MYL, NTAP, INTC

Lagging NDX stocks included: AKAM, WFM, SIRI, ROST, WYNN, NFLX, LMCA, YHOO, ILMN, TSCO

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: IBM, AAL, GLW, MFRM, RAX, SOHU, UNG, CSIQ

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: MS, FSLR, SPWR, SCHW, ANR, SPLK, SINA, YELP, LNKD


Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 32
MXIM, ALTR, AVGO, PCAR, ATVI, MSFT, NVDA, MAR, XLNX, AMAT, KLAC, TXN, GRMN, KRFT, LLTC, CTXS, FAST, INTU, BBBY, ROST, TSCO, PAYX, MAT, SBUX, ADI, BRCM, INTC, QCOM, SNDK, STX, WDC, AAPL

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
CSCO, MDLZ, NXPI

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
DISCA

Staying Below 30 DMA
ADP, AKAM, DISH, EBAY, ESRX, FFIV, FISV, LINTA, LMCA, MYL, SIAL, TRIP, TSLA, VIAB, WFM, ADBE, AMGN, AMZN, BIIB, CHKP, DLTR, DTV, GMCR, HSIC, ISRG, SYMC, ALXN, CERN, YHOO, FB, REGN, FOXA, CTSH, EXPE, GOOG, PCLN, WYNN, LBTYA, SBAC, COST, BIDU, MNST, MU, ORLY, SRCL, EQIX, NFLX, ILMN, CA, VRSK, ADSK, VOD, CELG, GILD, SPLS, VRTX, SIRI, CTRX, CMCSA, NTAP, CHTR, CHRW, EXPD, VIP


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral