Monday, March 3, 2014

Ukraine Instability From Russian Occupation...Sees Stocks Drop Sharply..Investors Seek Stability In...Gold...Crude...And Wheat...

All nine sectors moved lower on Monday…XLB, XLP and XLE were the strongest sectors…while XLK was unchanged and the weakest sector.  

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 1.98 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.69 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, mixed
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led


SPY down 1.31 at 184.98 volume 167.3 million shares, above average volume
VIX up 2.00 at 16.00…
TNX down .51 at 26.07…
TLT up .72 at 109.03...
XLF down .17 at 21.53 volume 49.6 million shares

AAPL up 1.52 at 527.76 volume 8.5 million shares
FB down 1.05 at 67.41…volume 56.8 million shares


Technical Commentary: 
IWM -0.54%, SPY -0.70%, QQQ -0.74%, DIA -0.94%.


SPX and SPY from their all-time high on Friday…NDX and RUT continued to pull back from their new highs on Thursday…XLF fell back to the short-term support of its trading range and did not break out.

XLB, XLI, XLK, XLV and XLY pulled back on Monday and are forming bull flag patterns.

The Ukraine instability with the Russian occupation has caused concerns for investors in markets…stock futures opened today sharply down due to the Ukraine concerns…and finished today lower…seeing the worst sell-off in a month.  DJIA closed sharply down 153.68 and the NASDAQ was off 30.82 with the S&P 500 down 13.72.  The Ukraine concerns had investors switching to the US dollar, gold, oil, and wheat…yes wheat…Wheat saw a rise today of 5.23%...Ukraine is the world’s 6th largest exporter of wheat. Gold futures was up 2.17% closing the highest since last October closing at $1,350.30 an ounce...and crude oil was up 2.27%.

(Posted Friday - Technically stocks are poised to move higher with strength in Financial stocks and other sectors.  However, political uncertainty in Ukraine over the weekend and into next week could create selling pressure in stocks.  VIX near unchanged on Friday after volatile day.  GLD in bull flag and TLT bonds rise to resistance.)

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.10, 187.99…
QQQ = 90.43, 92.25, 94.26
IWM = 115.39, 117.37…

Support Levels
SPY = 181.85, 180.29 179.04
QQQ = 89.00, 87.74, 86.97
IWM = 113.65, 111.21

Q4 earnings season
The majority of earnings season is done, however there are still a few companies including DRYS, MCP, SSYS, AZO, CSIQ, HOV, CIEN, COST, JOY, QIHU, BIG, FL,  and TSL that will report over the next few days…

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – DDD, MNST, ROST, YOKU, CRM, SHLD, ANF, TGT, DLTR, LOW, HD, M, SCTY, ZU, PCLN, DISH, INTU, AEE, MDRX, ALEX, DTV, TSLA, GRMN, SWY, KRFT, AMAT, CTRP, NVDA, SPWR, TRIP, REGN, CBOE, MCO, ATVI, AKAM, EXPE, GMCR, NXPI, ONNN, ORLY, SCSS, SWI, TWX, DIS, YELP, AGNC, KORS, KEYW, IDXX, XYL, YUM, NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG, GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, UA, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL, CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL

Negative Reactions – ADSK, CRM, FSLR, SINA, ESRX, GRPN, YNDX, KO, A, GNC, WTW, VFC, WFM, ANGI, CSCO, DISCA, NTAP, RAX, CI, LNKD, TPX, VRSN, ADP, CTSH, HUM, MDC, P, TSO, TWTR, ADM, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, DDD, SFLY, GILD, CVX, MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA, CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN (94)

Reversal of Initial Reaction – WDC, DISCA, XOM, CTXS, DDD, SFLY, TPX, VZ, ABT, BAX, AAPL, CL, VRSN, CSCO, ADP, CTSH, HUM, P, TSO, ADM, CERN, GILD, PCAR, MMM, CELG, HOG, POT, SHW, EMC, GLW, DD, VMW, YHOO, ZION, HON, SWK, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, LMT, HAL, FAST, FDO, AA (44, 46%)


The Market Forecast Green Line closed at 90.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout:
Diagonal Breakout:
Bull Flag:  AAL, BBRY, CSIQ, GME, NKE, P, SCSS, SCTY, FB, GILD, GMCR, GOOG, MU, NFLX, PCLN, SNDK, TRIP, TSLA, WDC,
One Day:  
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
Gap Up
Gap Down: SPLK, SWI,   
Bear Flag: ESI,   
At Support: ANGI, BAC, C, JNPR, NTES, SSYS,  
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: LVS, SOHU, SWKS, DTV, GRMN, WYNN, DTV,
Gap Up: GLD
Gap Down: RCL, QCOM, KKD, UAL, YNDK, ADSK,
H Breakout:
Diagonal Breakout:  
Breakout Test
Bounce: MU,
MACD Divergence Bounce
Bear Flag
Support Break: CREE,    

______________________


24 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: TSLA, REGN, ISRG, MU, SNDK, WDC, ATVI, ILMN, VRTX, DTV

Lagging NDX stocks included: VIP, ALXN, EXPE, QCOM, VIAB, MNST, MXIM, LBTYA, MAR, VOD

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included: BBRY, YOKU, GLS, SWKS

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: YNDX, TSL, SPLK, CSIQ, ANGI, RCL, CREE, XONE, SSYS, UNG, KKD, AAL, FAS, TWTR, UAL, C, BX, SWI, SCTY

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 76
ILMN, EQIX, FFIV, ISRG, MU, BIIB, MXIM, TSLA, NXPI, NFLX, ALTR, ALXN, REGN, FB, GMCR, GOOG, WYNN, ADBE, DISH, ORLY, EBAY, AKAM, AVGO, DTV, PCAR, AMGN, ATVI, CERN, EXPE, GILD, MNST, MSFT, MYL, NVDA, PCLN, SNDK, TRIP, ADI, MAR, XLNX, AMAT, CHKP, KLAC, TXN, CTSH, GRMN, HSIC, KRFT, LINTA, LLTC,VIAB, BIDU, FOXA, LMCA, MDLZ, FISV, LBTYA, DISCA, CTXS, FAST, INTU, VOD, WDC,WFM, BBBY, CA, DLTR, ROST, SIAL, ADP, COST, TSCO, SPLS, CELG, SBAC, YHOO

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
AAPL

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
ESRX, INTC, QCOM, SIRI

Staying Below 30 DMA
ADSK, BRCM, VRTX, CTRX, VRSK, CMCSA, CSCO, SBUX, SRCL,CHTR, NTAP, CHRW, AMZN, SYMC, STX, EXPD, VIP, PAYX, MAT

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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