Saturday, March 15, 2014

IWM Rises as SPY, DIA Form Inverted Hammer...Utilities Up as Eight Sectors Move Lower...Ukraine Concerns Dominate News as VIX Rises...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLU, XLE and XLP were the strongest sectors…XLB was unchanged while XLF was the weakest sector.    

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 1.36 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.17 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led


SPY down .52 at 184.66 on 153.9 million shares, above average volume
VIX up 1.60 at 17.82…
TNX down .08 at 26.45…
TLT up 0.02 at 108.52...
XLF down .14 at 21.80 on 44.2 million shares, average volume

AAPL down 5.96 at 524.69 on 8.5 million shares
FB down 1.11 at 67.72…on 48.1 million shares

Mar 14 – Weekly - YTD Performance

RUT   -1.82%            +1.53%
NDX   -2.04%            +1.00%
SPX    -1.97%            -0.39%

XLU    +2.25%           +7.69%
XLV    -1.70%            +5.41%
XLB    -1.86%           +1.47%
XLF    -2.55%            -0.27%
XLK    -2.17%            -0.31%
XLP    -0.19%            -0.93%
XLY    -2.29%            -1.47%
XLI      -3.11%            -1.74%
XLE    -1.86%             -2.41%


FB         -2.98%          +23.92%
NFLX   -5.33%          +15.30%

MU        -1.88%          +10.16%
PCLN   -6.64%           +9.08%
GOOG  -3.46%           +4.65%
GILD     -5.69%            -0.07%
AMZN    +0.45%          -6.28%
BIDU    -11.78%          -9.72%


Technical Commentary: 
IWM +0.42%, DIA -0.25%, SPY -0.28%, QQQ -0.68%.

IWM led the broad indexes while both SPY and DIA formed a bullish inverted hammer at support.  XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI and XLY also formed an inverted hammer while XLU rose to horizontal resistance in a breakout setup.

The VIX rose likely in response to concerns over the Crimea situation in Ukraine.  GLD and TLT also made recent short-term highs.

GMCR +6.68% bounced on news of an amended deal with SBUX and that it would join the S&P 500.


A large number of bull flag patterns have been formed in stocks (see list below) as the broad market had its first weekly pull back in six weeks.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 187.15, 189.25, 190.55…
QQQ = 90.96, 92.25, 93.05
IWM = 118.71, 120.64, 121.84…

Support Levels
SPY = 183.75, 182.60
QQQ = 88.87, 87.35, 86.49

IWM = 115.58


Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – KKD, MFRM, KKD, BIG, FL, JOY, DRYS, TSL, DDD, MNST, ROST, YOKU, CRM, SHLD, ANF, TGT, DLTR, LOW, HD, M, SCTY, ZU, PCLN, DISH, INTU, AEE, MDRX, ALEX, DTV, TSLA, GRMN, SWY, KRFT, AMAT, CTRP, NVDA, SPWR, TRIP, REGN, CBOE, MCO, ATVI, AKAM, EXPE, GMCR, NXPI, ONNN, ORLY, SCSS, SWI, TWX, DIS, YELP, AGNC, KORS, KEYW, IDXX, XYL, YUM, NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG, GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, UA, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL, CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL

Negative Reactions – GOGO, CIEN, COST, CSIQ, HOV, MCP, SSYS, ADSK, CRM, FSLR, SINA, ESRX, GRPN, YNDX, KO, A, GNC, WTW, VFC, WFM, ANGI, CSCO, DISCA, NTAP, RAX, CI, LNKD, TPX, VRSN, ADP, CTSH, HUM, MDC, P, TSO, TWTR, ADM, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, DDD, SFLY, GILD, CVX, MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA, CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN (104)

Reversal in progress –ADSK, ATI, A, CRUS CSX, CVX, GS, COF, JNJ, IBM, JCI, KEY, KO, LNKD, MA, RAX, STX, WFM (18, 18%)

Reversal of Initial Reaction – SINA, AA, AAPL, ABT, ADP, ADM, ALTR, BWLD, DISCA, CERN, CL, CSCO, CTSH, CTXS, DDD, HAL, EMC, ESRX, FAST, FDO, FSLR, HOG, BAX, VRSN, HUM, P, GILD, PCAR, MDC, MMM, CELG, HOG, POT, SHW, GLW, DD, HON, SWK, ISRG, KLAC, LMT, SFLY, TPX, TSCO, TSO, WHR,  UNH, VZ,  WDC, VFC, VMW, YHOO, XOM, ZION (54, 51%)


The Market Forecast Green Line closed at 83.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: GME, PANW, AMZN,
Diagonal Breakout: P, EBAY, FFIV, ROST, TSLA,
Bull Flag: AAL, BAC, BX, FAS, GOGO, HOG, IWM, LVS, MS, QIHU, SFUN, SPY, STI, AKAM, DTV, ESRX, FB, SBUX, TRIP, WFM, WYNN, XLNX, BIG, TRN, SWKS, ALK, LNG, CAR, FL, MBI, ANF, VMW, DAL, AGO, PWR
One Day:  
Potential Bullish Divergence: JNPR, RCL, CMCSA, MU, STX,
Gap Up:  
Gap Down:    
Bear Flag: 
At Support: BBRY, CTRP, DDD, FSLR, GLW, SINA, SOHU, SPLK, SSYS, YOKU, ADSK, GRMN, MNST, PCLN, QCOM, SBUX, TXN, YHOO
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: GLD, JDSU, MFRM,
Gap Up:  
Gap Down:     
H Breakout:   
Diagonal Breakout:    
Breakout Test:
Bull Flag Bounce: GMCR,
Bounce: ATI, GME, SCSS, Z, WDC,
MACD Divergence Bounce
Bear Flag: COST,
Support Break: AAPL, BIDU, CELG, GILD, GOOG, NFLX, 

______________________


45 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two were unchanged on Friday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: LMCA, GMCR, ILMN, VIP, SIRI, DISH, CHKP, MYL, CHTR, YHOO

Lagging NDX stocks included: CELG, GILD, BIDU, TSLA, PCLN, EXPD, CHRW, FB, NTAP, ISRG

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: Z, MFRM, GME, YNDX, MCP, ATI, BBRY, JDSU, SCSS, P, JNPR

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: DRYS, TWTR, XONE, ESI, BAC


Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 53
BIIB, MXIM, NXPI, TSLA, ALTR, ALXN, REGN, FB, WYNN, ADBE, DISH, EBAY, AKAM, AVGO, DTV, PCAR, AMGN, ATVI, EXPE, MSFT, MYL, NVDA, PCLN, SNDK, TRIP, ADI, MAR, XLNX, AMAT, KLAC, TXN, CTSH, GRMN, HSIC, KRFT, LINTA, LLTC, VIAB, MDLZ, FISV, LBTYA, DISCA, CTXS, FAST, INTU, WFM, BBBY, DLTR, ROST, SIAL, ADP, TSCO, SBAC, AAPL, ESRX, PAYX, QCOM, AMZN, INTC, MAT, SBUX, COST

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
CHKP, GMCR, LMCA

Moving Below 30 DMA = 9
AAPL, ADI, COST, CTSH, INTC, PCLN, QCOM, SNDK, WYNN

Staying Below 30 DMA
BIDU, BRCM, CERN, EQIX, FFIV, FOXA, GOOG, ILMN, ISRG, MNST, MU, NFLX, ORLY, SRCL, STX, CA, VRSK, YHOO, ADSK, VOD, WDC, CELG, GILD, SPLS, VRTX, SIRI, CTRX, CMCSA, CSCO, CHTR, NTAP, CHRW, SYMC, EXPD, VIP

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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