Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Stocks Continue Broad Rally After January Slump...NDX Poised for New High as GOOG, FB, ALXN, REGN, GMCR and CMCSA Make New All-time Highs...PCLN New High Close...

All nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday…XLV, XLE and XLK were the strongest sectors…while XLY was the weakest sector.  

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 3.55 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.30 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, advancers led
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led


SPY up 1.97 at 181.98 volume 117.8 million shares
VIX down .75 at 14.51…
TNX up .41 at 27.19…
TLT down .62 at 106.47...
XLF up .22 at 21.53 volume 37.5 million shares

AAPL up 6.97 at 535.96 volume 10 million shares, below average volume
FB up1.30 at 64.85…volume 45.7 million shares, below average volume


Technical Commentary: 
DIA + 1.27%, QQQ + 1.14%, SPY + 1.09%, IWM + 0.89%.

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as advancing stocks increased and all nine sectors moved higher.  The DJIA led the broad indices with gains in BA, GS, JNJ, NKE, CVX and T.  Each stock has started to rally off of recent lows.  NKE is a classic horizontal resistance breakout setup.  Interest rates TNX moved higher and bonds TLT are at support.

The NDX which is a horizontal resistance breakout new high setup closed just below its high of Jan 22.  The NDX was led by gains in AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, FB, REGN, QCOM, CELG, CMCSA, GILD, GMCR, AMGN and ALXNPCLN 1,213.93 makes new high close by 64 cents. 

GOOG and ALXN broke out to new all-time high closes.  FB also made a new all-time high.  REGN broke out of horizontal resistance to a new high close on a positive earnings reaction after reporting before the open.

QCOM and GILD are horizontal resistance breakout setupsCELG is a reversal horizontal resistance breakout setup.  CMCSA made a new high close and is also a resistance breakout setup.

GMCR 119.40, +8.48, +7.65% broke through its Sep 2011 high of 115.62 to a new all-time high close.

RAX -7.71, -19.10% was crushed after earnings on Monday.

TRIP -1.45, -1.72% was trading lower after reporting earnings after the close.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and move your protective stops.  Be mindful of reversal patterns like double bottoms and MACD divergences.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 182.54, 184.69…
QQQ = 89.00, 92.25, 94.26
IWM = 113.65, 117.37…

Support Levels
SPY = 179.81, 178.08
QQQ = 87.74, 86.97
IWM = 111.34, 110.40

Q4 earnings season
The majority of earnings season is done, however there are still several companies including AMAT, CSCO, DISCA, DISH, GRMN, KRFT, NTAP, NVDA, PCLN, REGN, TRIP, TSLA and WFM that will report over the next several days…

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – REGN, CBOE, MCO, ATVI, AKAM, EXPE, GMCR, NXPI, ONNN, ORLY, SCSS, SWI, TWX, DIS, YELP, AGNC, KORS, KEYW, IDXX, XYL, YUM, NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG, GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL, CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL

Negative Reactions – RAX, CI, LNKD, VRSN, ADP, CTSH, HUM, MDC, P, TSO, TWTR, ADM, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, GILD, CVX, MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA, CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN

Reversal of Initial Reaction – CTSH, P, ADM, CERN, GILD, GLW, HON, FAST, FDO, AA


The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up above 45 and rising.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: A, DRYS, FSLR, GLW, JDSU, JNPR, NKE, QIHU, SCSS, STI, SWKS, TSL, V, X, Z, ADSK, CELG, CTSH, GILD, MSFT, QCOM, TRIP, XLNX,
Diagonal Breakout: ANR, BBRY, DDD, GOGO, SCTY,
Bull Flag: CRM, SWI,   
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
Gap Up
Gap Down
Bear Flag: 
At Support: CSIQ, LNKD, TLT
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: RCL, SPLK, AKAM, CMCSA, ESRX, FB, GMCR, GOOG, MNST, NFLX, WYNN,
Gap Up: GOLD,  
Gap Down: GRPN, RAX,
H Breakout: FAS, LVS, MS, COST, FFIV,  
Diagonal Breakout: BAC,   
Breakout Test: 
Bounce: UNG, WLT,
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
Bear Flag:  
Support Break:

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86 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GMCR, REGN, VRTX, MNST, XLNX, AVGO, AKAM, AMAT

Lagging NDX stocks included: STX, ISRG, MU

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: UNG, WLT, DRYS, ANR, LVS, RCL, SPLK, MCP

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: RAX, CSIQ, GRPN, ANGI, SOHU, SCTY


Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 52
ILMN, ESRX, CMCSA, EQIX, FFIV, SBAC, ISRG, MU, BIIB, MXIM, TSLA, NXPI, NFLX, CHTR, ALTR, ALXN, REGN, GOOG, WYNN, FB, GMCR, ADBE, ORLY, DISH, EBAY, ADSK, AKAM, AVGO, BRCM, CSCO, DTV, PCAR, VRTX, WFM, AMGN, ATVI, CERN, EXPE, GILD, MNST, MSFT, MYL, NTAP, NVDA, PCLN, QCOM, SIAL, SNDK, TRIP, MAR, XLNX, ADI

Moving Above 30 DMA = 8
AAPL, AMAT, CHKP, COST, KLAC, TXN, CTRX, DISCA

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
HSIC, SBUX

Staying Below 30 DMA
SRCL, CHRW, WDC, AMZN, VRSK, SYMC, SIRI, STX, CA, CELG, CTSH, EXPD, FAST, FISV, LLTC, VOD, VIP, ADP, BIDU, CTXS, GRMN, KRFT, INTC, INTU, MDLZ, LBTYA, YHOO, VIAB, LINTA, TSCO, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, FOXA, MAT, LMCA

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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