Saturday, February 22, 2014

Stocks Pause Near Resistance on Expiration Friday...

Four of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLY, XLF and XLI were the strongest sectors…while XLE was the weakest sector.  

Breadth weakened as advancers led decliners 1.32 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.09 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – holiday


SPY down .21 at 183.89 volume 118.1 million shares
VIX down .11 at 14.68…
TNX down .20 at 27.34…
TLT up .56 at 106.67...
XLF up .04 volume 43.1 million shares

AAPL down 5.90 at 525.25 volume 10 million shares
FB down 1.04 at 68.59…volume 70.9 million shares, 14% above average volume

YTD Performance Feb 21
NDX   +1.97%
RUT   +0.09%
SPX    -0.66%

XLU    +6.79%
XLV    +6.08%
XLK    +0.59%
XLB    -0.06%
XLI      -1.66%
XLF    -1.74%
XLE    -2.37%
XLY    -2.44%
XLP    -3.21%

FB        +25.51%
NFLX   +16.79%
PCLN   +13.18%
MU       +12.69%
GILD      +9.97%
GOOG   +7.41%
BIDU      -2.93%
AMZN   -13.05%

Technical Commentary: 
IWM + 0.31%, SPY -0.11%, DIA -0.04%, QQQ -0.13%.

Stocks traded in a range on February options expiration Friday.  The positive were IWM, the Euro, XLF, VIX and advancers.  The negatives were interest rates, bonds and SPX 1,850 resistance.  Most activity was neutral with the SPX trading in a 10 point range and just a 22 point range for the holiday four-day trading week.

SPY is up +5.58%, IWM +6.45% and QQQ +6.69% since the closing low on Feb 3.  The rally has been led by XLB +7.39%, XLV +7.20% and XLY +6.59% which are the leading sectors since Feb 3.  During that same time financials XLF +4.63% has been the seventh strongest of nine sectors.  Financial sector XLF which was stronger on Tuesday this week fell -1.3% on Wednesday after weak January housing starts were reported Wednesday morning.  XLF recovered 10 cents Thursday and Friday but still lags SPY as of Friday’s close.

If financials gain strength next week that improves the probabilities that the SPX will break through its 1,850 resistance area.  With the NDX, XLV, XLU above resistance and XLK and XLB at resistance we will watch for a potential horizontal breakout entry on the SPX next week and for the trend to continue higher.

ADSK, AKAM, CTSH, MNST, TRIP, WYNN, XLNX, UNG and UA each made a new high close on Friday.

PCLN +32.65, +2.54% gapped to an all-time new high close on a positive earnings following the close on Thursday.


GRPN -2.25, -21.88% gapped down, following earnings after the close on Thursday, to its lowest close in more than three months.  The negative reaction stemmed from lower than expected earnings guidance on Q1.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and move your protective stops.  Be mindful of reversal patterns like double bottoms and MACD divergences.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.10, 187.99…
QQQ = 90.43, 92.25, 94.26
IWM = 115.39, 117.37…

Support Levels
SPY = 181.85, 180.29 179.04
QQQ = 89.00, 87.74, 86.97
IWM = 113.65, 111.21

Q4 earnings season
The majority of earnings season is done, however there are still a few companies including ADSK, CRM, MCP, MNST, ROST, SCTY and SPLK that will report over the next few days…

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – PCLN, DISH, INTU, AEE, MDRX, ALEX, DTV, TSLA, GRMN, SWY, KRFT, AMAT, NVDA, SPWR, TRIP, REGN, CBOE, MCO, ATVI, AKAM, EXPE, GMCR, NXPI, ONNN, ORLY, SCSS, SWI, TWX, DIS, YELP, AGNC, KORS, KEYW, IDXX, XYL, YUM, NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG, GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, UA, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL, CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL

Negative Reactions – ESRX, GRPN, YNDX, KO, A, GNC, WTW, VFC, WFM, ANGI, CSCO, DISCA, NTAP, RAX, CI, LNKD, TPX, VRSN, ADP, CTSH, HUM, MDC, P, TSO, TWTR, ADM, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, DDD, GILD, CVX, MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA, CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN (93)


Reversal of Initial Reaction – WDC, DISCA, XOM, CTXS, DDD, TPX, VZ, ABT, BAX, AAPL, CL, VRSN, CSCO, ADP, CTSH, HUM, P, TSO, ADM, CERN, GILD, PCAR, MMM, CELG, HOG, POT, SHW, EMC, GLW, DD, VMW, YHOO, ZION, HON, SWK, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, LMT, HAL, FAST, FDO, AA (43, 46%)


The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: GILD, MSFT, TXN, WDC, ATI, BX, DDD, GLD, GLW, IBM, IWM, JDSU, JNPR, LVS, P, SCSS, SFUN, SOHU, SPWR, SPY, TBT, TPX, AAL,
Diagonal Breakout: NFLX, SBUX, CREE, CSIQ, DRYS, ESI, GME, GOGO, KKD, STI, TWTR, XONE,
Bull Flag: ADBE, CELG, COST, FFIV, GOOG, GRMN, QCOM, YHOO, FAS, V, YELP, ZION,
One Day: FB, GMCR, MU, TSLA, CIEN, MTW, QIHU, SWI, SWKS, VRSN,
Potential Bullish Divergence: AMZN, NTAP, BAC, BBRY, NTES, TLT, X, Z
Gap Up:
Gap Down
Bear Flag: WFM, LNKD,
At Support: ANGI, ANR, WLT, X, YNDX, Z
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: ADSK, AKAM, CTSH, MNST, TRIP, WYNN, XLNX, UNG, UA,
Gap Up: PCLN, AEE, MDRX, ALEX
Gap Down: ESRX, GRPN,
H Breakout: UNG,
Diagonal Breakout: MFRM, NKE,
Breakout Test: SNDK,
Bounce: WDC, CRM, RCL,
MACD Divergence Bounce: STX, A, MS, UAL,
Bear Flag: RAX,  
Support Break 

______________________


45 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Friday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: INTU, BIIB, PCLN, CERN, REGN, WYNN, CTSH, WDC, LINTA, DISH

Lagging NDX stocks included: CHTR, ESRX, SBAC, COST, MU, CELG, LBTYA, FB, CMCSA, SBUX

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: ESI, MFRM, UNG

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: GRPN, WLT, CSIQ, RAX, TSL, CIEN, ANGI, QIHU, CREE, BBRY

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 70
ILMN, EQIX, FFIV, SBAC, ISRG, MU, BIIB, MXIM, TSLA, NXPI, NFLX, ALTR, ALXN, REGN, GOOG, WYNN, FB, GMCR, ADBE, ORLY, DISH, EBAY, ADSK, AKAM, AVGO, BRCM, DTV, PCAR, VRTX, AMGN, ATVI, CERN, EXPE, GILD, MNST, MSFT, MYL, NVDA, PCLN, QCOM, SNDK, TRIP, MAR, XLNX, ADI, AAPL, AMAT, CHKP, KLAC, TXN, CTRX, CTSH, GRMN, HSIC, LINTA, LLTC, VIAB, KRFT, BIDU, VRSK, MDLZ, LMCA, FOXA, FISV, LBTYA, DISCA, CTXS, FAST, INTU, VOD, WDC

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
SIRI, WFM

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
CA, CELG, COST, ESRX, SIAL

Staying Below 30 DMA
AAPL, CMCSA, CSCO, SBUX, SRCL, CHTR, NTAP, CHRW, AMZN, SYMC, STX, EXPD, VIP, ADP, INTC, YHOO, TSCO, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, MAT

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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