Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Small Cap IWM Leads...Retail Stocks ANF, TGT, LOW, DLTR Gain on Positive EPS...New Homes Data Move LEN, KBH, DHI, PHM, XHB...BIDU, ADSK Gap Higher in After-hours Trading...Bull Flags Waving...

Four out of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLB, XLY and XLI were the strongest sectors…while XLE was the weakest sector.  

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 1.58 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.56 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – weakened, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY up .01 at 184.85 volume 95.4 million shares, below average volume
VIX up .68 at 14.35…
TNX down .28 at 26.73…
TLT up .57 at 107.92...
XLF down .03 volume 42.4 million shares

AAPL down 4.71 at 517.35 volume 9.8 million shares
FB down .59 at 69.26…volume 55.1 million shares


Technical Commentary: 
IWM + 0.62%, DIA + 0.21%, SPY + 0.01%, QQQ – 0.09%.

On Wednesday money continued to flow into small caps as IWM +0.72, +0.62% after lagging for three weeks finally caught up with SPY, made a new all-time intra-day high at 118.11 before closing, within two cents of its Jan 22 all-time closing high, at 117.35

DIA +0.34, +0.21% gained on strength from WMT, UNH, DD, HD and CAT.

On Wednesday retail continued to ring the cash register as ANF +4.05, +11.25%, TGT +3.98, +7.04%, LOW +2.61, +5.43%, DLTR +2.61, +4.95% gained on positive earnings reaction.  The retail industry ETF XRT gained +1.57, +1.88%.  Internet retail winners included OSTK +1.30, +6.77%, VIPS +7.31, +6.67%, ZU +3.18, +5.44%, CTRP +2.16, +4.32% and SFLY +2.03, +3.92Other big retail movers in addition to WMT and HD included SPLS, ROST, SHLD, RSH, BBY and TIF.

January new homes sales data was better than expected and housing stocks boomed.   XHB +2.66%, LEN +3.60%, KBH +3.17%, DHI +2.94%, PHM +2.76% and TOL +1.70% continued their current uptrend.

BIDU +14.10, +8.16%, ADSK +2.66, +4.86% gained in after-hours trading on a positive earnings reactions.

FB is in a two day bull flag and MU in a four day bull flag formed an inverted hammer.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and move your protective stops.  Be mindful of reversal patterns like double bottoms and MACD divergences.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.10, 187.99…
QQQ = 90.43, 92.25, 94.26
IWM = 115.39, 117.37…

Support Levels
SPY = 181.85, 180.29 179.04
QQQ = 89.00, 87.74, 86.97
IWM = 113.65, 111.21

Q4 earnings season
The majority of earnings season is done, however there are still a few companies including ADSK, CRM, MCP, MNST, ROST, YOKU, DRYS, TSL, SSYS and DDD that will report over the next few days…

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – ANF, TGT, DLTR, LOW, HD, M, SCTY, ZU, PCLN, DISH, INTU, AEE, MDRX, ALEX, DTV, TSLA, GRMN, SWY, KRFT, AMAT, CTRP, NVDA, SPWR, TRIP, REGN, CBOE, MCO, ATVI, AKAM, EXPE, GMCR, NXPI, ONNN, ORLY, SCSS, SWI, TWX, DIS, YELP, AGNC, KORS, KEYW, IDXX, XYL, YUM, NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG, GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, UA, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL, CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL

Negative Reactions – FSLR, SINA, ESRX, GRPN, YNDX, KO, A, GNC, WTW, VFC, WFM, ANGI, CSCO, DISCA, NTAP, RAX, CI, LNKD, TPX, VRSN, ADP, CTSH, HUM, MDC, P, TSO, TWTR, ADM, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, DDD, SFLY, GILD, CVX, MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA, CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN (94)

Reversal of Initial Reaction – WDC, DISCA, XOM, CTXS, DDD, SFLY, TPX, VZ, ABT, BAX, AAPL, CL, VRSN, CSCO, ADP, CTSH, HUM, P, TSO, ADM, CERN, GILD, PCAR, MMM, CELG, HOG, POT, SHW, EMC, GLW, DD, VMW, YHOO, ZION, HON, SWK, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, LMT, HAL, FAST, FDO, AA (44, 46%)


The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: CSIQ, IBM, IWM, NKE, QIHU, AMZN, TXN, WDC, XLNX,
Diagonal Breakout: GOGO, LNKD,   
Bull Flag: FB, MU, CIEN, GLW, LVS, UNG, AKAM, DTV, ESRX, GMCR, MNST, MSFT
One Day:  
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
Gap Up:  ADSK, BIDU
Gap Down:   
Bear Flag: A,   
At Support: C,   
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: MTW, P, SCTY, SWKS, SNDK,
Gap Up: YNDX,   
Gap Down:  FSLR
H Breakout: CREE, JDSU, MFRM, ROST,  
Diagonal Breakout:  
Breakout Test
Bounce: KKD, NTES, SCSS, SFUN, TPX, WLT, X, SBUX,
MACD Divergence Bounce
Bear Flag:   
Support Break: MCP,   

______________________


52 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: DLTR, AVGO, SPLS, FFIV, ROST, SYMC, EBAY, STX, TSLA, TSCO

Lagging NDX stocks included: SBAC, CELG, VRSK, AMGN, ILMN, VIP, VOD, ORLY, GMCR, EXPE

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: WLT, CSIQ, SCTY, KKD, SCSS, YNKX, SWKS, RAX, SFUN, QIHU, CREE, ANR, MGRM, P, TPX, Z, MTW, SINA, JDSU, X

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: FSLR, ESI, MCP, UNG, BBRY

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 78
ILMN, EQIX, FFIV, SBAC, ISRG, MU, BIIB, MXIM, TSLA, NXPI, NFLX, ALTR, ALXN, REGN, GOOG, WYNN, FB, GMCR, ADBE, ORLY, DISH, EBAY, ADSK, AKAM, AVGO, BRCM, DTV, PCAR, VRTX, AMGN, ATVI, CERN, EXPE, GILD, MNST, MSFT, MYL, NVDA, PCLN, QCOM, SNDK, TRIP, MAR, XLNX, ADI, AMAT, CHKP, KLAC, TXN, CTRX, CTSH, GRMN, HSIC, LINTA, LLTC, VIAB, KRFT, BIDU, VRSK, MDLZ, LMCA, FOXA, FISV, LBTYA, DISCA, CTXS, FAST, INTU, VOD, WDC, WFM, BBBY, CA, CELG, DLTR, ROST, SIAL, ADP, COST, TSCO

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
SPLS

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
CELG, SBAC, VRSK

Staying Below 30 DMA
AAPL, ESRX, CMCSA, CSCO, SBUX, SRCL, NTAP, CHTR, CHRW, AMZN, SYMC STX, EXPD, VIP, INTC, YHOO, PAYX, MAT

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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