Monday, September 30, 2013

Shutdown Looms as House/Senate Tangle...TSLA New High Close as FB Takes a Breathier...

All nine sectors moved lower on Monday…however XLU, XLV and XLB were the strongest sectors…XLP was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth weakened… decliners led advancers…1.51 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.19 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened –advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, mixed
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
 
 
SPY down .90 at 168.01…volume 143.9 million shares
VIX up 1.14 at 16.60…
TNX down .04 at 26.15…
TLT down .16 at 106.40...
XLF down .14 at 19.91…volume 39.8 million shares
 
AAPL down 6.00 at 476.75…volume 9.2 million shares
FB down 1.01 at 50.23volume 100 million shares
 
Technical Commentary: 
DIA – 0.79%, SPY – 0.53%, QQQ -0.24%, IWM + 0.03%.
 
Futures gapped lower on Sunday and traded lower until just after the opening bell on Monday morning.  US traders were apparently taking the Asian and European selloff as a buying opportunity.  In the end stocks did close lower than Friday, however the SPY, DIA, QQQ and IWM closed higher than the opened.  IWM finished 3 cents higher.
 
All this as the House and Senate tangle over federal funding to avoid a partial government shutdown, the first since 1995/1996.  How can stock rally in the face of a shutdown?  Apparently institutions either don’t see a partial shutdown or they don’t see one lasting long enough to be devastating.  At least that is what a strong small cap and technology market segment is suggesting.
 
FB, MNST, ADSK and AAPL led to the downside while TSLA, CMCSA, BIDU and SHLD led to the upside.
 
TSL +4.25%, SOHU +4.01%, VECO +2.59%, CMG +2.34% and CREE +1.57% continued to rise despite lower stock prices in general.
 
Up or down, follow your rules when trading resumes on Tuesday…that’s what big money will do.
 
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 79.69
IWM = 107.48
SPY = 173.60
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is SPY down, NDX, QQQ neutral.
Support Levels
ES = 1,672, 1,660
SPY = 168.33, 167.08, 165.31
QQQ = 78.40, 77.67
IWM = 105.52, 104.57
 
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – NKE, BBBY, ULTA, FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down. 
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: MSFT, CREE, ESI,
 
Diagonal Breakout: XLNX, ATI,
 
Bull Flag: ADSK, AKAM, AMAT, AMGN, AMZN, BBBY, COST, EBAY, FAST, GOOG, GRMN, INTC, WYNN, ALK, DDD, LVS, MCP, RCL, SPY, V, VRSN, Z,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: SYMC, TIF,
 
Gap Up:
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag:
 
At Support: SNDK, C, QIHU,
 
Moves
New Highs: ROST, TSLA, CMG, SOHU, TSL,
 
Gap Up: CMG,
 
Gap Down: GS, NKE, SPLK,
 
H&D Breakout: CMCSA, VECO,
 
Breakout Test:  
 
Bounce:  
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: DELL, NTAP, NUAN, ANR, CLF, F, GLW, GRPN, SCTY,  
 
______________________
 
 
37 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday and one was unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ISRG, REGN, TSLA, CMCSA, MXIM, AVGO, CHTR, BIDU, SBAC, FOXA, SHLD
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  CTRX, FB, BIIB,  MNST, ADSK, CHRW, CA, LMCA, AAPL, MDLZ, LINTA, SIRI
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included: LDK, TSL, SOHU, VECO, CMG, HLF
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: XONE, Z, GRPN, YELP, JCP, MCP, CLF, AKS, VMW, CDE, FAS
 
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 72
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, WYNN, NVDA, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD, SBAC, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK, FOXA, ADBE, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX,TXN, AMZN, FAST, LINTA, SIRI, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, COST, MYL, PAYX, PCAR, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, LLTC, SIAL, CMCSA, MDLZ, LBTYA, MAT, MCHP, BBBY, EQIX, DISCA, FOSL, ORLY, SPLS, SRCL, MSFT,
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
HSIC, NTAP
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
ADP, DTV
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
ATVI, BRCM, CA, DELL, FFIV, GOOG,QCOM, ADI, CSCO, WDC, AAPL,CHKP, CTXS, KRFT, NUAN, GMCR, GOLD, ESRX, VRTX, CTRX, SYMC, ISRG, MNST
 
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down, NDX, RUT = Neutral

Stock Futures Fall In Pre-Market As Investors Consider Possible Gov Shutdown...EURO Up...

BMO – ES – 15.00… and NQ – 29.25…futures point to a lower open in pre-market
SPY is down 1.31…
 
XLF is down .21…
Euro is up 60 pips…                  
TLT is down .14…
 
Follow your rules for entry and exit…adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...
 
Quoting Up: FAZ, CMG, TLT
 
Quoting Down:  BIIB, ADBE, BIDU, NVDA, FB, Z, CLF, XONE, GRPN, JCP

Friday, September 27, 2013

SPY Ends Week -1.09% on Weak Financials, Staples, Healthcare, Materials and Rising Interest Rates…Partial Shutdown Looming?

One of nine sectors moved higher and one was unchanged on Friday…XLY, XLV and XLE were the strongest sectors…XLB was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth weakened… decliners led advancers…2.05 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.55 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened –advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, mixed
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – mixed, decliners led
 
 
SPY down .78 at 168.91…volume 99 million shares
VIX up 1.40 at 15.46…
TNX down .24 at 26.19…
TLT up .26 at 106.56...
XLF down .08 at 20.05…volume 49.2 million shares
 
AAPL down 3.47 at 482.75…volume 8.1 million shares
FB up .85 at 51.24volume 81.3 million shares, new all-time high
 
Technical Commentary: 
QQQ -0.13%, IWM -0.45%, SPY -0.46%, DIA -0.48%.
 
Stocks closed lower on Friday as decliners led advancers the weekend before a potential government partial shut-down.  VIX rose as the SPY fell in perhaps a mild preparation, just in case.  The SPY -1.06% for the week, indicates a low level of fear, suggesting most believe some type of deal will be achieved in time next week.
 
SPY weakness seemed to reflect sector weakness with XLF -1.93% on falling interest rates TNX -4.14% and rising bonds, TLT +1.56% for the week.  XLP -1.83%, XLV -1.63% and XLB -1.08% were also weaker than the SPY.  XLI, XLE, XLK, XLU and XLY were down for the week but stronger than the SPY.
 
The QQQ +0.11% for the week was lifted by a rising FB +7.73%, AAPL +3.28% and MSFT +1.46% among rising NDX stocks.  The IWM +0.12% was also up slightly for the week.  Rising technology and small cap stocks is generally positive and not a bearish indication.
 
Stocks may continue Friday’s selloff on Monday before any compromise is reached.  While the present need not be a repeat the past, remember December 31 and January 2 when a compromise was reached at the beginning of the year.
 
NKE +4.69% following EPS on Thursday.
 
TSL +1.99, +15.50% hit a two-year high following a DB upgrade to Buy from Hold, raises price target 18.00.   
 
EBAY pulled back on Friday and stayed above Thursday’s S1 following its gain of +2.43, +4.48%.  YHOO +0.80, +2.44% made another bull-market closing high at 33.55 on volume of 31.8 million shares.  TSLA +2.26, +1.20% makes another all-time high.
 
JCP -13.15% which broke support on Tuesday, reached its S&R measuring target at 9.88 on Thursday and then bounced, collapsed further on Friday.
 
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 79.69
IWM = 107.48
SPY = 173.60
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is SPY down, NDX, QQQ neutral.
Support Levels
ES = 1,672, 1,660
SPY = 168.33, 167.058
QQQ = 78.40, 77.67
IWM = 105.52
 
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – NKE, BBBY, ULTA, FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down. 
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: ESI, FSLR, KKD, RAX, SINA, SOHU, SPLK, YOKU, ADBE, BBBY, CMCSA, GILD, GRMN, MSFT, NFLX, ROST, SBUX,
 
Diagonal Breakout: CIEN, CMG, CREE, CRM, GLD, LNKD, PWRD, QIHU, YELP, YNDX, Z, AAPL, AMZN, CTSH, FAST, GOOG, SHLD, SNDK, SYMC, TXN, WFM
 
Bull Flag: ALK, ANGI, ATI, GRPN, LVS, RCL, SPY, TPX, AKAM, AMAT, AMGN, EBAY, MYL, NVDA, STX, WYNN, XLNX,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence:  
 
Gap Up:
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag: FIVE, SSYS, ESRX,
 
At Support: ANR, BBRY, C, CLF, CNX, F, FAS, GLW, GME, GS, NTES, SCTY, STI, SWI, TBT, TIF, WLT, ZION, CSCO, NTAP,
 
Moves
New Highs: FB, CELG, MU, PCLN, ROST, SBUX, TSLA, YHOO
 
Gap Up: NKE,
 
Gap Down: UAL,
 
H&D Breakout:
 
Breakout Test: DDD, TLT,
 
Bounce: DNKN, KKD, P, UNG, CMCSA, GILD, STX,
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break:  BAC, JCP, QCOM,
 
______________________
 
 
34 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday and two were unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: CERN, CELG, YHOO, FB, MSFT, CMCSA, TSLA, GILD, AVGO, DISCA
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  SHLD, QCOM, BRCM, AKAM, CSCO, INTC, CHRT, CTXS, GMCR, NUAN
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: TSL, NKE, KKD
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: JCP, UAL, QIHU, MCP, GRPN, CLF, X, ANR, LNKD, PWRD, WLT, SSYS
 
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 75
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, WYNN, NVDA, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD, SBAC, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK, FOXA, ADBE, ADP, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX,TXN, AMZN, FAST, LINTA, SIRI, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, COST, MYL, PAYX, PCAR, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, LLTC, SIAL, CMCSA, MDLZ, LBTYA, MAT, MCHP, BBBY, EQIX, DISCA, FOSL, ORLY, SPLS, SRCL, DTV, MSFT
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0
 
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
ADI, ATVI, BRCM, CA, DELL, FFIV, GOOG, HSIC, NTAP, QCOM
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
CSCO, WDC, AAPL, CHKP, CTXS, KRFT, GMCR, NUAN, GOLD, ESRX, VRTX, CTRX, SYMC, ISRG, MNST
 
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down, NDX, RUT = Neutral