Monday, November 12, 2012

SPY, XLF, Euro Hold Support as FB Jumps...Divergence Confirms on ETFs...



Five of nine sectors moved higher and two were unchanged on MondayXLV, XLI, XLE and XLF were the strongest sectors.

Breadth
weakened slightly on Monday as decliners led advancers …1.09 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.16 to 1 on the NASDAQ…


SPY up 10 cents at 138.26...volume 97.3 million shares
VIX -1.93 at 16.68
TNX -0.02 at 16.11…
TLT up 21 cents at 126.19…
XLF
up 2 cents at 15.52…volume 33.7 million shares

AAPL down -4.23 at 542.83volume 18.4 million shares
FB up 86 cents at`20.07…volume 67.3 million shares…

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Technical Commentary:
The Euro traded in a range and closed unchanged at 1.2708 above its late June resistance at 1.2693.  TNX, interest rates were slightly lower and TLT, bonds moved slightly higher.

FB gained +4.48% on increased volume.

XHB and individual housing stocks like TOL, LEN PHM  were weak on Monday and represent bearish trade setups.

XLF was up 2 cents.

The SPY opened higher and formed an inside day before closing up 10 cents.   The VIX moved significantly lower before closing slightly higher and did confirm the SPY move up.

ES moved higher overnight, drifted lower before closing at 1,378.  NQ formed a doji and closed at 2,581.

The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down forming a potential bullish divergence.

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Chart Targets:
SPY = 140.67 short-term resistance
ES =
1,397, 1,430 short-term resistance
EUR/USD = 1.2876, 1.3020 short-term resistance

Short-term support at
1.2693, 1.2638 = Euro
137.55, 137.07 = SPY
78.47, 76.89 = SPXL
1,380, 1,368 = ES
2,583, 2,550 = NQ


Setups:
Bull Flag: VMED, CTRP, NFLX, ISRG, URI, LRCX, SCCO, SMH, MCO, WHR, AOL, THC, HCA, QCOM, DDS, TXN, WYNN, CERN, EXPD, EXPE, CHRW, SBUX, RCL, CHL, V, BAC, F, PCAR,  LINTA, SHLD, LLTC, CREE, TMO, JOE, ROVI, VAR, AAN, TER, ISIL, INGR, AVY, WHR, VMW, WDC, R, DV, CIEN, JDSU, HNT, AGQ, BTU, C

Potential MACD Divergence:  GOLD

MACD Divergence:  SPY, DIA, QQQ, GOOG, CTSH

Moves:
Gap Up: TIE, JEF, GILD, CELG, CIM, DNDN, PCP
Gap Down:
 
 Bounce: LDK, SHW, ATI, FB, GMCR, VRSN, LNKD, RIMM, KLAC, TSLA, CROX, YHOO, ALXN, PCLN, KRO, PPO, TRIP, RIMM, BRKR

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44 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GILD, CELG, GMCR, VRSN, RIMM, KLAC, APOL, YHOO, ALXN, PCLN

Lagging NDX stocks included: STX, GOLD, ESRX, NVDA, VRTX, MSFT, FFIV, CERN, NTAP, SNDK

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included: LDK, ATI, FB, LNKD, TSLA, CROX, X

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: MCP, YELP, CDE, ZAGG, GRPN, TPX


Stocks to Watch on Tuesday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 26
VMED, LINTA, SHLD, ISRG, LRCX, YHOO, MYL, ORLY, PCAR, TXN, CERN, CHRW, EXPD, EXPE, MXIM, NFLX, RIMM, GMCR, LLTC, XRAY, PCLN, SBUX, XLNX, QCOM, HSIC, SRCL

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
EA, GILD, KLAC, SIRI

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
FLEX, STX

Staying Below 30 DMA
WYNN, ADBE, AVGO, CMCSA, INTU, MAT, MU, NWSA, SPLS, SYMC, ADSK, AKAM, AMAT, AMGN, ATVI, COST, EBAY, FISV, GOLD, LIFE, MCHP, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, PAYX, PNRA, SNDK, WFM, FOSL, ADP, FAST, INTC, BIDU, EXPD, CTSH, PCAR, SIAL, VIAB, ALXN, CELG, ESRX, MNST, TXN, VRSN, BIIB, GOOG, MYL, CHKP,  APOL, INFY, ORLY, VRTX, AMZN, BMC, FFIV, GRMN, VOD, WCRX, DLTR, DTV, NUAN, AAPL, BRCM, CA, NTAP, CTXS, SYMC, CSCO, ALTR, BBBY, KLAC, ROST, DELL, MRVL, KRFT


Twelve Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

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