12:20 pm ET...
Typical Money Flow Relationships
Euro – down
USD – up
Interest Rates – down
Bonds – up
XLF – down
SPX – down
VIX – up
Direction is opposite for each asset when the Euro is up.
After Tuesday’s strong up day, the relationships are not typical in a positive way or a non-confirmation of Wednesday’s pullback. The Euro is down but appears to be forming a both a higher high and higher low. TNX is up and bonds are down. XLF and SPX are down but the VIX is also down.
So the non-confirmations for Wednesday’s pullback are TNX, bonds and VIX. This suggests that this is a profit-taking consolidation and not a reversal of Tuesday’s up day.
Chart Signals conclusion is the pullback represents a second chance entry opportunity. As always, follow your rules.
BMO – ES -0.50 and NQ +0.25 futures are mixed 25 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a flat open…volume is light for pre-market with more stocks quoting down than up…Financial stocks, XLF is down 6 cents on 14,500 shares in pre-market at this time…
TLT is down 28 cents and the Euro is down 25 pips in overnight trading…
NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN, GOOG and QCOM are flat…PCLN has not traded…BIDU is lower…
Dave’s Insight for Wednesday: lower Euro…flat bonds… Financials slightly lower…setting up a flat to slightly lower open…after a very strong up day, a pause for profit taking is common…watch the pullbacks in the Euro and SPX…If they hold above Tuesday’s S1, the mid-section of Tuesday’s candle, it is bullish…Follow YOUR rules for entry, exits and stops...TRADE THE TREND…
We are looking at second chance opportunities for entry on Setups of MACD Bullish Divergence, Diagonal Breakout, Higher Lows and Higher Highs with Higher Lows…also the 28 Divergences from last night’s post that have yet to give an entry signal..
Chart Signals will be watching VIX to see if it stays below 25...XLF and TNX today as key factors in any SPX move…
SPX
Resistance: 1,249, 1,260, 1,273
Support: 1,230, 1,216, 1,205
Quoting Down – IBM, CRM, CF, FFIV, VMW, UNP, SINA, URE, RVBD, SLB, DECK, A,FAS, CLF, LNKD, WLT, TIF, COH, POT, V, HLF, TLT, ORCL, BIDU, WYNN, CTSH, CTXS, PNRA, TEVA, WFM, ADSK, PCLN, NFLX, BRCM, PAYX, GMCR
Quoting Up – NKE, TSLA, FAZ, GRPN, RIMM
8 comments:
Love the intra day comment; Very informative.
Been using today as a second chance day on some bullish position entries.
Thanks Dave!
My AMZN 175/170 weekly put vertical looked a lot better yesterday....
Dave
The COMPQ, NDX and SOX look very weak compared to the INDU and SPX.
Do you think this is a result of Oracle earnings and collateral damage?
Don
Dave, you don't often post intraday comments, but when you do they are extremely valuable! Such postings by you are most welcome, and provide rationale to often head-scratching types of days. I must be disciplined in strobing your website during the trading day for those occasions you do this.
Thank you!
Dave,
When the market opens down, and the VIX also gaps down and holds, does that add to your drooling zone??
Thanks for all you do.
JD
Dave,
The VIX seems down a lot more than expected compared to the SPX. Is this an accurate assessment? Does this give more weight to an up trend bias?
Thanks
Don
Dave.. this blog continues to improve each week with such consistancy. You are indeed a man of details, but you teach them in a simple, clear, repetitive way so that students of all levels are able to catch them according to their efforts. I like the way that you highlighted the short term uptrend in BLUE yesterday. It's wonderful to see all these upgrades constantly being applied to this blog. Thank you so much for this sacrifice. It's such a service to all of us students and the ever widening circles that we are then able to serve based upon our results here. God Bless You and have a great Christmas.
Nice
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