Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Futures Point to a Lower Open as Euro Moves Near One Year Lows...

BMO – ES -2.00 and NQ -9.00 futures are lower 100 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a lower open…volume is light for pre-market with more stocks quoting down than up…Financial stocks, XLF is down 7 cents on 8,300 shares in pre-market at this time…

TLT is up 19 cents and the Euro is down 56 pips in overnight trading…

NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN are trading lower…BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM are not yet trading.

Dave’s Insight for Wednesday: lower Euro…higher bonds… Financials down…setting up a slightly lower open …the SPX fell to 1,219 finding support and closing at 1,225…Follow YOUR rules for entry, exits and stops...TRADE THE TREND…

Chart Signals will be watching XLF, TNX and VIX today as key factors in any SPX move…

SPX
Resistance: 1,230, 1,249, 1,260
Support: 1,216, 1,205

Quoting Down – JNPR, FAS, CAT, IBM, SLW, SLB, FCX, LVS

Quoting Up – FAZ

Dave is traveling home this evening from an AT Workshop in Orlando where he taught 220 traders for two days.
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8 comments:

Ariel said...

Dave : Thank you. You were great yesterday at the workshop
Ariel

December 14, 2011 at 5:36 AM
Anonymous said...

Dave,
If you look at at 20 yr monthly chart of the SPX, it looks like a head and shoulder pattern is forming. Do you see the same thing?

Drawing a channel on the 10 yr weekly chart of the SPX looks like we are in a downward channel.

These seem like quite bearish patterns. How do you interpret these patterns?

Thanks!
Kurt

December 14, 2011 at 5:52 AM
Gary said...

Kurt,

Bull flag maybe?

December 14, 2011 at 1:45 PM
Anonymous said...

Gary,

I would point out on the 10 year weekly chart, the 20ma has crossed below the 100ma. This type of crossing is typically called a "Death Cross", which is the opposite of a "Golden Cross". Additionally, the 50ma on the same weekly chart has begun to just barely rollover. The high point of the 50ma occured the first week of November.

If price action fails to stay above the 10ma & 20ma on the weekly chart, then obviously, all other moving averages will eventually continue to rollover.

For this to be a bull flag, it would seem to make more sense that the 20ma should be trending upward rather than downward as it has been doing since mid-July.

Don't know what the market will do next, but I have not been in agreement with Dave's view about hitting his projected target on the $SPX by year end. If both the 10ma & 20ma cross under the 100ma, well, it would certainly create an interesting market. Likewise, if the 10ma & 20ma cross back above the 50ma, it would be equally exciting.

Respectfully,

J.A. - California

December 14, 2011 at 11:12 PM
HousewifeMaggi said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
December 15, 2011 at 5:05 AM
HousewifeMaggi said...

I believe Dave is saying that the up trend for the next 8 weeks is still valid till now he did not specify any target for this year-end, which is just three weeks away. The taget of 1369 is meant for 10 weeks period from around end Oct

December 15, 2011 at 5:08 AM
Gary said...

JA,

I see the 10 yr weekly chart as a breakout of a double bottom followed by a breakout of diagonal resistance last week and a "possible" pullback to S1 of the bullish engulfing candle two weeks ago, which also is also breakout support. It has held 2 other times so probability suggests that it has a better chance of holding than breaking.
With all indicators being lagging, the 20ma is losing momentum as the markets turn sideways again.I don't think the 20ma "death cross" can be interpreted on the 10 yr chart.
The bull flag should still be valid since the $SPX has broken out of diagonal resistance and has not made a lower low.
Maybe we can see if Dave will comment today in one of his classes.
Great discussion here!

Gary

December 15, 2011 at 5:13 AM
PENNY STOCK INVESTMENTS said...

Markets can go lowe in a heartbeat.

April 6, 2014 at 1:58 PM

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