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Only XLE rose on Friday as defensive sectors XLU, XLV and XLP were the weakest sectors.
Money Flow
Euro +41 pips 1.3046
TNX -0.59 18.54
TLT +1.41 122.32
XLF -0.03 12.54
SPX +3.91 1,219.66
VIX -0.82 24.29
RUT +0.84%
COMPQ +0.56%
NDX +0.52%
SPX +0.32%
INDU -0.02%
SPY moved down 59 cents on 220.4 million shares after a 77 cent distribution on Friday.
AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM moved higher on Friday. AMZN was unchanged.
SPY moved down 59 cents on 220.4 million shares after a 77 cent distribution on Friday.
AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM moved higher on Friday. AMZN was unchanged.
Breadth weakened slightly as advancers led decliners 1.64 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.28 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Exchange NYSE NASDAQ
Advancers 1,857 1,412
Decliners 1,126 1,103
Friday’s Money Flow was out of step as the dollar weakened and yet TNX and XLF fell and bonds rose. Notwithstanding weak financials the SPX rose slightly and the VIX fell as expected on expiration Friday.
Positives included the RUT leading other indexes and formation of bullish candles on the RUT, SPX, NDX, COMPQ and INDU.
(click image to enlarge)
We posted Friday morning…”Expiration Friday’s often have a volatile trading range day with moderate net change”…and to us there was no surprise on the net action at the end of the day.
As we previously posted the Euro has fallen to its 1.61 Fib extension from its Thanksgiving low thus making a new recent low, while the SPX and XLF have only retraced about 50% of the rise from their Thanksgiving lows. On a relative basis both XLF and SPX are significantly stronger.
If the Euro holds its 1.2943 – 1.3084 support area look for individual stocks to move up. If the Euro moves higher, look for both individual stocks and the broad indexes to move higher. If the Euro moves lower expect stocks to drift lower.
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On Friday there are a very large number of stocks with a MACD Bullish Divergence. The divergence suggests a weakening of the prior trend, which in this case is down, hence bullish divergence
Setups
MACD Bullish Divergence – A, ANR, ARUN, ATI, BAC, CAT, CF, CIEN, COH, CREE, CRM, ESI, GLW, HAL, HLF, INFA, JDSU, JNPR, KKD, LVS, MCP, MOS, POT, RVBD, SINA, SLB, SLW, SOHU, STI, SWKS, SWN, TBT, TIF, VECO, VMW, WLT, ZAGG, ZION
(click image to enlarge)
NDX Bullish Divergences – AKAM, ALTR, AMAT, AMZN, ATVI, BIDU, BMC, BRCM, CA, CERN, CHKP, CTRP, CTXS, ERTS, EXPD, ILMN, INFY, LLTC, LRCX, MRVL, NFLX, PCAR, PCLN, QCOM, SRCL, STX, SYMC, VMED, WCRX
(click image to enlarge)
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday ZAGG, LDK, SINA, SOHU, TPX, DECK, SLW, UAL, AKS, ENTR, X, CDE, DOW, DLR, URE
Losing stocks < -2.0% included ARUN, TBT, TSLA, IBM, COH
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included VRTX, ADBE, ALXN, MYL, CHKP, EBAY, PCLN, AMGN, MU and GMCR.
Stocks weaker than the NDX include RIMM, SHLD, GILD, ERTS, DTV, VMED, NTAP, FLEX, AKAM and YHOO.
Six NDX stocks ADBE, ALXN, EXPE, ISRG, MSFT and SIAL closed above their 30 DMA and NWSA closed below making 28 NDX stocks above their 30 DMA.
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 11
NGLS, V, WDC, LDK, NTES, UAL, DLR, TLT, CSTR , IL
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
GES
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
IBM
Staying Below 30 DMA
NKE, CMG, FFIV, SNDK, SWK, UCO, DE, F, HUM, TSL, UNP, X, AKS, ATI, C, CAT, CDE, CLF, CRUS, ENTR, FAS, FCX, GS, ICE, NDAQ, NVDA, SLB, SMH, TBT, ANR, DOW, RCL, TSLA, A, COH, DHR, INFA, CHL, CRM, DECK, HAL, HLF, JNPR, RVBD, STI, VECO, ZION, KKD, LVS, SLW, FAZ, GLW, TIF CIEN, JDSU, VMW, ARUN, CF, CREE, SWN, WLT, MOS, PCX, TPX, GES, SOHU, MCP, BAC, CSTR, POT, SINA, SWKS, ZAGG, LNKD, ANF, ESI, CROX, GRPN
Eleven Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
10 comments:
Thank you, Dave. You are most appreciated! :)
Kathy :)
Thanks Dave~
Appreciate the efforts and assistance.
Robert
CANI_212
I have this gut feeling that there will be ann announcement this week of a country leaving the Eurozone. No firm evidence, just a gut feeling. I think its going to be a wild one.
Dave: Thanks for the extra graphs and analysis.
Robert
CANI_212
another very informative picture painted by Dave.
Thank you so much.
The chart could develope into a big triangle with sideways. I sm still amazed how you read the 10 weeks trend as up, many trades are waiting for sell once 1160 touch..:-).Then will we know that we are wrong? SPX-1160 breakdown?
Kathy and Robert,
You're welcome! Thank you for reading.
Dave
alternate investments,
Thanks for reading, however this is a technical blog. Gut feelings are not a technical strategy. Technical analysis is what we can see not what we can feel. If you were George Soros and you traded your feeling we might be able to see that on the chart. If you are a typical retail trader like the rest of us, the market doesn't know or care what you think or feel.
Did your gut guide you to know if the country leaving is a Euro-currency participant or a non-Euro member?
Let us know...
Dave
Hi Maggi,
You're right...the chart is already a big triangle are we are right in the middle of some serious consolidation...
You already know my secret. I look at the SPX weekly open 10 weeks ago 1,158 and the weekly close on Friday 1,219 and draw a line connecting the two points. It slopes up. I wanted to but I just couldn't call the 10 week direction down. :-)
We certainly can call the seven week or the one week direction down.
Short-term trades should be traded based on the short-term setup and a break of support should be traded down to the next support level. A break below 1,209 would be one such support break entry.
I hope this helps and thank you for reading.
Dave
Great stock picks.
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