The SPX continued its support bounce on Friday moving back above its 30 DMA and rising towards its 1,321 resistance level. The SPX closed up +4.14 at 1,313.80, more than 5 points below its intraday high of 1,319.18. The SPX, COMPQ and RUT formed a bearish shooting star pattern. Confimration in an uptrend is a close below Friday's body on Monday, which could be an exit signal on an existing bullish position or an entry signal for a potential bearish postion, depending on a individual's trading rules.
(click image to enlarge)
SPX shooting star, close above 30 DMA, +0.32%INDU half white candle, close above 30 DMA, +0.41%
COMPQ shooting star, close above 30 DMA, +0.24%
RUT large spinning top, close above 30 DMA, +0.83%
Breadth strengthened slightly on the NYSE and weakened slightly on the NASDAQ on Friday as advancers led decliners 1.93 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.38 to 1 on the NASDAQ …
Exchange NYSE NASDAQ
Advancers 1,982 1,527
Decliners 1,023 1,103
Index Chg. Close Direction Confirmation
VIX -0.09 17.91 Down Yes – SPX
SOX -1.14 436.27 Down No – COMPQ
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included CF, ACN, UNG, VLO, WDC, GES, WLT, MHS, SINA, POT, UNP, CMG
Positives – SPX, VIX, INDU, COMPQ, RUT, breadth remained positive, AAPL, BIDU, PCLN, bonds fell
Negatives – GOOG, QCOM, sectors weakened, Euro
Interest rates TNX closed slightly higher on Friday and bond ETF TLT fell 23 cents. The Euro fell 86 pips to 1.4087 at 5 pm.
Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Friday with Energy XLE +0.90% and Materials XLB +0.54% the strongest sectors.
Closed Virtual SPY Trade
This past week I conducted a Four Day Live training with 55 traders from across the U.S. and Canada
On Friday the broad indexes formed potential bearish candle patterns without confirmation that we will look for on Monday. This of course is potentially bearish. On the positive side next week is the last week of the quarter during which some institutions engage in window dressing which refers to selling losing stocks and buying winning stocks so their portfolios have the strong stocks in them at the end of the quarter. At times window dressing can keep the market steady to higher which is short term positive. As a result we suggest that you wait for up trending stocks to actually roll over for confirmation of a potential pull back.
Movers and Setups
Strong Moves Up – WDC, UNP, CF, MHS, GES, NIHD
(click image to enlarge)
Potential (unconfirmed) Shooting Star/Tombstone Doji – HUM, ARUN, CAT, VECO, FWLT, MOS, IPI, BIDU, X, SWKS, PCX, DECK AGU, CRUS, SMH, AKAM, CHKP, FISV
(click image to enlarge)
Potential (unconfirmed) Bearish Harami – SLW, MCP
SPX
Resistance: 1,311, 1,321, 1,330
Support: 1,300, 1,288, 1,281
The short term 3 day trend is up.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.
Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.
Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.
Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.
AAPL +6.57 – large white candle, close above 30 DMA, -9.8% correction from Mar 7
AMZN -0.12 – shooting star, reversed at 30 DMA, -16.1% correction from Feb 14
NFLX +0.88 – white spinning top inside day, -23.6% correction from Feb 14
QCOM -0.97 – dark cloud cover, -16.2% correction from Mar 1
GOOG -7.15 – black candle confirms hanging man, -12.6% correction from Feb 18
BIDU +1.44 – shooting star did not confirm potential hanging man
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include NIHD, PCLN, ALTR, WYNN, AAPL, AKAM, STX, ORCL, WCRX, INFY, DTV, VMED, WFMI, CTRP and CMCSA.
Stocks weaker than the NDX include RIMM, NVDA, SBUX, QCOM, MRVL, ADSK, BBBY, GOOG, COST, LLTC, MSFT, ERTS, VRTX, KLAC and ILMN.
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HUM, ARUN, GMCR, HLF, HAS, SINA, TLT, FAZ, SWN, UCO, CAT, CSTR, UNG, WDC, SLW, SWK, ATW, DHR, FCX, IL, NTES, VECO, VLO, MCP, A, CLF, DE, ICE, PCX, WLT, ACN, AMD, ATI, ESI, F, FWLT, NETL, SOHU, TSL, UNP
HUM, ARUN, GMCR, HLF, HAS, SINA, TLT, FAZ, SWN, UCO, CAT, CSTR, UNG, WDC, SLW, SWK, ATW, DHR, FCX, IL, NTES, VECO, VLO, MCP, A, CLF, DE, ICE, PCX, WLT, ACN, AMD, ATI, ESI, F, FWLT, NETL, SOHU, TSL, UNP
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
CMG, DOW
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
Staying Below 30 DMA
CAM, URE, DLR, NYX, RVBD, JNPR, BAC, TIF, CHL, DECK, NDAQ, V, FAS, GLW, JDSU, TBT, AGU, CRUS, SWKS, CIEN, GES, IPI, MHS, MOS, POT, SLB, SMH, CF, AKS, CRM, LDK, SNDK, STI, GS, JEC, LVS, NVDA, UAL, X, ZION, VMW
Short Term Market Trend: Up
3 comments:
Dear Dave:
We're back home practicing/reviewing what we learned in the awesome 4-day live!
Thanks to you, Scott and Garry!
Please post about all the live seminars you're doing so that we can follow you around :-)
Thankyou for your writings and everything you do for your beloved students.
Best Regards,
LP
Thanks for the daily comments Dave.
Looks like the Dave Johnson "C" pattern has been formed on the SPX. It will be interesting to see if this break above the 30day ma holds, or if we get a retracement back under it. If it does retrace, I'll be looking for that second pop above and then more likely the continuation.
I have used an Iphone for the last four years, but i dont really liked cuz there aren't a lot of useful applications that I prefare to use. For example this tracking app http://copy9.com/hidden-call-recorder/ . But anyway thanks for this article, it was very interesting to read.
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