Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Futures Down More Than 2 1/2% on Japanese Selloff of 11%...Follow Your Rules...

11:20 am ET - So after completing a call this morning, I pulled up the post and was reading  it and came across the word "bold" in the Baron Rothschild quote and realized that it was a typo...a great endorphin release on my end.  So I corrected it, then I saw several comments about the typo. 

Because some of you noticed the typo, this tells me you are reading what I write, which is a good thing.  In case anyone is curious, I actually wrote this post on three hours sleep because I was on the internet talking to my son until 4 am MT.  It was a great discussion getting the update from inside Japan.  I will try to share some of what he shared with me later today.



BMO – ES -31.25 and NQ -61.50 futures are lower about 10minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a lower open…almost all stocks are down in pre-market trading but many are down on light volume, often a bullish indication if sellers choose not to sell at the low quotes…

Don’t be surprised if big money becomes buyers following this overnight sell off of 11% in the Japanese market and 2.5% sell off in ES and NQ futures…time will tell...

This promises to be an interesting day…

TLT is up 1.33 and the Euro is down 88 pips in premarket trading and is above new support at 1.3861…

NDX leaders NFLX is higher, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG and PCLN are down big in pre-market trading

Solar stocks FSLR, TSL and LDK are heating up in pre-market trading…

Dave’s Insight for Tuesday:  Follow your rules.  Continue to enter ONLY when you see your signal…The old quote that I have heard for decades attributed to Baron Rothschild is, “buy when blood is running in the street.”

SPX
Resistance: 1,271, 1,281, 1,300,
Support: 1,256

Quoting Down – GOOG, PCLN, AAPL, ISRG, WYNN, AMZN, HLF, CMG, CRM, WLT, UCO, CF, TIF, AGU, SOHU, CLF, SINA, SLW, GS, DE, SLB, MCP, MOS, VECO, VMW, CAT, ARUN, DLR, LVS, UNP, DECK, FAS, POT, RVBD, CHL, X, IL, IPI, FCX, NTES, SWKS, GMCR, URE, NETL, VLO, SWN, SNDK, JNPR, ESI, MHS, DOW, CAM, TBT, V, FWLT, CRUS, BIDU, FFIV, MICC, INTU, JOYG, CTXS, CTSH, CTRP, QCOM, NTAP, ADSK, CEPH, RIMM, CELG, XLNX, ALTR, BRCM, ADBE, DTV, ILMN, VMED, KLAC, ORCL, ROST, VOD, EBAY, APOL, WFMI, TEVA, DLTR, AMGN, AKAM

Quoting UpFSLR, FAZ, TLT, TSL, LDK, NFLX, BMC

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Isn't the quote: "Buy when BLOOD is running in the street?" Or as Warren Buffett said: "When people are fearful, be greedy."

Steven R.

Anonymous said...

One of the core tenets of technical analysis is: "History repeats itself." .... I wonder if this also applies to the soothsayer's warning to Julius Caesar, "Beware the Ides of March."

Steven R.

Pamela Kilmer said...

My thoughts are with you and your family. I hope your family remains safe and healthy. Pam Kilmer

Anonymous said...

Hi Dave,

So glad your family members in Japan are safe! Are they able to obtain necessities?

The second half of Rothschild's quote perhaps applies, too: "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."

The option trades that I placed with the stop being 'max loss' are there... Is it time to change to the hope rules? :P (not seriously)

It seems true that the only thing that is certain is uncertainty!

Thank you for your consistent admonitions to stick to rules. Your advice is most appreciated! :)

Kathy :)

Anonymous said...

Thanks Dave for the insight. Hope your family continues to stay safe. Your dedication in times like these is inspriring!

Chad D

Brian McAllister said...

Blood is definitely running in the streets today. But it is interesting that the $RUT is not as weak as the other major indices as of 10:30am ET. Would have thought it would sell off harder. Also interesting that there are a lot of bullish MACD histogram divergences forming today.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Dave for the insight. I sold my puts at market open and took the max profit, and looking for re-entry now.
Hope your family in Japan continues to stay safe.
--Tao

Anonymous said...

Dave, Thank you for keeping us posted as to how your son and his family are doing in Japan. What town do they live in? I see they had a 6.1 West of Tokyo today. Pam K.

Bruce said...

Dave: I read your blog each day..so defintely a LOT of US out here who read what you write! Keep the Pearls of Wisdom coming!
I hope all is well with Your Son and his Family.
I would luv to hear your comments about what is really going in Japan..instead of the hysterical brain dead commentery of the mainstream media!
B. Hesker

Gary said...

Dave, I'm seeing the pattern on AKS everywhere. Is this a mini double bottom?
http://screencast.com/t/b3aNEkAsihl

TraderBobb said...

Dave:
Thanks for the post:
As always, you and your family are in my prayers. Hope all are well.
---------------------------------
I saw the quote earlier in the day but did not get a chance to comment: but new what you meant.
I "watched" the market patiently-although had some alarm in my feelings early. I bought back some of my my short calls after "seeing" the market stabilizing and climb back up keeping my longs positive or near even. Even traded the QQQQ's intra-day for a decent profit.

Thanks so much for you mentorship.

Robert
CANI_212

Anonymous said...

I think today's market activity is a knee jerk reaction to world markets knee jerk reactions to Japan. It will calm down.
Also, we are learning what strategies to use under different market conditions. What strategies should we be using when the market is changing trend in front of our eyes?

Steven R.

Scott Avery said...

Thanks a million for all you do. And, may a million prayers go out for your loved ones and so many others in Japan. My wife came in after the first 1/2 hour of trading and asked "are you happy". I said "No", because of the report of so many missing people in Japan. But then when she asked how the trading was going I replied, "excellent". I took off everything bearish after the first 10 mins of the market and did very well. Then put on some bullish plays involving selling premium due to the high VIX.

linven50 said...

Funny! I knew what you meant, I guess my mind translated to the correct term... glad you had a good long talk with your son. And, yes, I think some of that blood in the streets was mine... I have none left! Lol... maybe you can knock some sense back into me when you come to Dallas in a couple weeks. So, buy, you say? She asks as she pulls out the empty pocket... lol...