Friday, March 18, 2011

SPX Fails to Hold Opening Gains on Expiration Friday...


The SPX opened higher following futures which had risen overnight and traded near at 1,288 its prior support level, now new resistance, for the first 30 minutes.  The SPX traded it way down for the balance of Friday and closed up +5.48 at 1,279.20.  The SPX is forming a potential lower high and potential bear flag.  Since the SPX closed higher we will look for continuation and at the same time be prepared for potential reversal.
(click image to enlarge)

SPX potential shooting star at 1,288 resistance, +0.43%
INDU white candle confirm Thursday bullish harami, +0.71%
COMPQ black candle, close lower than open, +0.29%
RUT white candle, inside of Tuesday Wednesday, +1.16%

Breadth was marginally weaker on Friday as advancers led decliners 2.57 to 1 on the NYSE and stronger 2.11 to 1 on the NASDAQ

Exchange       NYSE          NASDAQ
Advancers      2,151             1,797
Decliners           836                849

Index              Chg.    Close    Direction      Confirmation
VIX                  -1.93      24.44     Down            Yes – SPX
SOX               +1.23    419.20     Up                 Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included UAL, STI, PCX, MCP, AMD, FAS, SLW, GS, ACN

Losing stocks < -2.0% included LDK, CIEN, JDSU, TSL, FAZ, IL, VMW, RVBD, MHS, LVS, X, CRUS, WLT, NYX, VLO

Interest rates, TNX rose on Friday and bond ETF TLT rose 25 cents.  The Euro rose 159 pips to 1.4179 at 5 pm.  Falling interest rates create a resistance for financial stocks and the SPX.

Four of nine sectors moved higher on Friday with Financials XLF +1.12% and Consumer Staples XLP +0.24% the strongest sectors.

Friday was options expiration and a trading range day. The support bounce of the past two days has created many potential bear flag setups. If these stocks fail to break above resistance and or their 30 DMA and begin to rollover be prepared for the downside signal.

If buying pressure continues strong on Monday, these stocks could continue their support bounce and breakout above their 30 DMA or other resistance, but as of now they are potential bear flag setups.

If the SPX breaks through Friday’s high of 1,288 which was the old support area before the support break on Tuesday, then continue with the support bounce. Remember when price breaks above resistance it is probabile that price will rise to the next resistance level.

For bullish setups look at Thursday’s post and stocks above their 30 DMA.

(click image to enlarge)
Movers and Setups
Bear Flag Signals – FSLR, NFLX, CMG, NYX, NETL, CIEN
Breakout Support Signals - FFIV
Bear Flag SetupCLF, DE, AGU, CF, STI, DOW, GLW, WLT, POT, MOS, SLB, SMH, FCX, ZION, DLR, A, ICE, URE, NTAP, MICC, ADSK, WCRX, EBAY, FISV, HSIC, ESRX, ALTR
Breakout Support SetupCTXS, WYNN, JNPR, SOHU



SPX
Resistance: 1,281, 1,288, 1,300
Support: 1,271, 1,256, 1,241

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.

Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.

AAPL -3.97large black candle, -9.8% correction from Mar 7
AMZN +0.85 spinning top bullish harami, -16.1% correction from Feb 14
NFLX -4.50black spinning top, -23.6% correction from Feb 14
QCOM -0.61 bearish engulfing, -16.2% correction from Mar 1
GOOG -0.30 black spinning top, -12.6% correction from Feb 18
BIDU -1.14 black candle in trading range

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include NTAP, INTU, DELL, MICC, ADSK, SPLS, SHLD, CEPH, WCRX, EBAY, FISV, ATVI, HSIC, VMED and CHKP.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include FFIV, FSLR, NFLX, CTXS, WYNN, MU, NVDA, ISRG, ESRX, AAPL, QCOM, AMGN, LRCX, ALTR and INFY.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HUM, ARUN, GMCR, HLF, HAS, SINA, TLT, FAZ, SWN, UCO, CAM, CAT, CSTR, UNG, WDC
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
PCX, SLW, SWK, UNP
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
ATW, IL, TSL, VECO
Staying Below 30 DMA
CMG, DLR, NYX, A, DHR, NTES, RVBD, VLO, ESI, JNPR, SOHU, BAC, ICE, TIF, URE, MCP, AMD, CHL, DECK, DOW, NDAQ, V, CLF, FAS, GLW, JDSU, NETL, TBT, ACN, AGU, CRUS, SWKS, WLT, CIEN, DE, GES, IPI, MHS, MOS, POT, SLB, SMH, ATI, CF, AKS, CRM, LDK, SNDK, STI, FWLT, GS, JEC, LVS, NVDA, UAL, X, ZION, VMW, F, FCX

Four Week Term Market Trend: Down
Short Term Market Trend: Down

7 comments:

Unknown said...

Dave,
I listened to this afternoon's Marketcast. I am glad to hear that things seem to be returning to "normal" for your son and his family. Thanks again for all you do.

Sheila

CR said...

Thank you for your continued efferts to keep us informed - it does make a difference. I continue to pray for your son and his family and all those in Japan, Haiti, Libya and all those in need.

Anonymous said...

Dave,

Could you please confirm the sources of the $SPX support/resistance at 1281 and 1288? Thx Akiko

Dave Johnson said...

Akiko,

The SPX chart.

Dave

Anonymous said...

The ultimate bearish signal: Dave only has Bearish signals and setups listed. The market must be going down hard and long.

Don

Anonymous said...

Dave,

Extremely informative and detailed weekly wrap, thanks to you and Tom.

I write a daily wrap every day, based on your format. My confidence is building daily as I'm begining to see it very similar to you, with increasing frequency.

Thanks for everthing you do,
A grateful student/trader

Paula said...

Dave,
Your word of wisdom are helpful beyond measure. I made enough profits to help fund my next mission to Haiti in April. Unfortunately I cannot follow you when I am there because the internet is slow and unreliable. My 10 year old daughter asked me when I was going to Japan. I am glad to hear your son and family are safe.

I did lose some in the past 2 weeks because I do not adjust fast enough. I am dedicated to learning from you. Do you read these comments?
Sincerely
Paula