The SPX formed a doji inside day closing down -1.80 at 1,321.82. The SPX continues its short term consolidation or sideways pattern in place since last Tuesday. Wednesday is the thirteenth day since the SPX peak on Feb 18.
(click image to enlarge)
SPX doji, -0.14%
INDU doji, -0.01%
COMPQ hammer, -0.51%
RUT spinning top, -0.42%
Breadth weakened on Wednesday as decliners led advancers 1.10 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.41 to 1 on the NASDAQ …
Exchange NYSE NASDAQ
Advancers 1,427 1,093
Decliners 1,574 1,547
Index Chg. Close Direction Confirmation
VIX +0.40 20.22 Up Yes – SPX
SOX -13.59 434.35 Down Yes – COMPQ
Weak guidance from fiber optics provider FNSR led to weakness in communications equipment and semiconductor stocks.
(click image to enlarge)
The SOX broke support as ALTR, NVLS, XLNX and MU fell more than -5%. KLAC, TER, AMD TXN, AMAT, STM and LLTC each fell more than -2%.
Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included GMCR, HLF, HUM, IL, VMW
Losing stocks < -2.0% included JDSU, CRUS, SWKS, CLF, CIEN, IPI, PCX, NETL, POT, WLT, AMD, X, MOS, FCX, SMH, SLW, LDK, RVBD, JNPR, ATI, MCOP, GLW, NDAQ, WDC, NVDA, DECK
Positives – AMZN
Negatives – TNX, TLT, breadth weakened, AAPL, QCOM
With the broad indexes in a consolidation and the SOX breaking support, it is time to prepare for a break of support. Here are some potential short term reversal patterns.
Movers and Setups
Potential M Tops – CRUS, SWKS, CLF, IPI, NETL, CIEN, POT, AMD, SMH, LDK, JNPR, ATI
Potential Lower Highs – PCX, WLT, MOS, MCP, NDAQ, DECK, UNP, TBT, WHR, UAL
SPX
Resistance: 1,321, 1,330, 1,344
Support: 1,311, 1,300, 1,281
The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.
Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.
Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.
Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.
AAPL -3.29 – black spinning top at 30 DMA
AMZN +2.16 – piercing line hammer at horizontal support
NFLX -2.46 – black spinning top, new low close near bottom earnings gap
QCOM -2.15 – large black candle closes below 30 DMA
GOOG -0.54 – white spinning top does not confirm bullish harami
BIDU -0.43 – inside day, hammer
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include YHOO, SYMC, SBUX, MICC, VRTX, AMZN, LINTA, NIHD, WFMI, GILD, CTRP, WYNN, ADP, COST and CERN.
Stocks weaker than the NDX include ALTR, LRCX, XLNX, MU, KLAC, FLEX, MXIM, QCOM, AMAT, MCHP, FFIV, LLTC, NVDA, WCRX and ILMN.
Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
NDAQ, DLR, HUM, NTES, CAM, CAT, ATW, SWK, IL, ICE, JNPR, AMD, DHR, ARUN, DECK, GMCR, RVBD, SLW, ESI, HLF, UCO, CMG, HAS, V, VECO, A, DOW, TIF, WDC, BAC, CHL, SINA, UNP, URE
NDAQ, DLR, HUM, NTES, CAM, CAT, ATW, SWK, IL, ICE, JNPR, AMD, DHR, ARUN, DECK, GMCR, RVBD, SLW, ESI, HLF, UCO, CMG, HAS, V, VECO, A, DOW, TIF, WDC, BAC, CHL, SINA, UNP, URE
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
TLT, VLO
Moving Below 30 DMA = 8
CLF, FAS, GLW, JDSU, MCP, NETL, PCX, TBT
Staying Below 30 DMA
ACN, AGU, CRUS, CSTR, FAZ, NYX, SWKS, WLT, CIEN, DE, GES, IPI, MHS, MOS, POT, SLB, SMH, SOHU, ATI, CF, AKS, SWN, CRM, LDK, SNDK, STI, TSL, FWLT, GS, JEC, LVS, NVDA, UAL, X, ZION, VMW, UNG, F, FCX
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
3 comments:
Dave:
Thank you for the analysis and insights.
Robert
CANI_212
Dave,
I hope you don't mind me posting this here but I thought it pertained to past technical indicators.
Double Inside Days
Look at the phenomenon that we had as of Friday's close, in which Thursday and Friday's action were inside Wednesday's high and low. This double inside day represents a sizable short-term period of consolidation. Interestingly, the pattern has been bullish since 1990 and more specifically from 2004 to the present, where we see favorable returns five days out.
The important pattern, however, is that the double inside day appears to be bullish during bull markets and bearish during bear markets (as in 2000-2002). When you think about it, this makes some sense. By definition, a market's directional activity does not occur during consolidation periods. It's what happens afterward that sets the trend. A market tells you quite a bit by how it behaves in the face of consolidation. This itself might be a useful market indicator.
Turkey is now on the market which is the best fiber optic solutions company. I have been working with a company called B & C Fiber Optics before. We are pleased to increase our product range. What are the companies that you would recommend in the fiber optic products sector?
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