Thursday, April 9, 2009

VIX...Lowest Close Since September 26, 2008...

DJIA + 246.27, +3.14% SP500 + 31.40, +3.81% NASDAQ Comp. + 61.88, +3.89% Russell 2000 + 26.08, +5.90% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 3,254 2,332 Declining 548 485 Oil $52.24 +$2.86 Gold $882.20 -$2.60 SOX 254.41 +11.70 VIX 36.53 -2.32 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. Today marks the lowest close on the VIX since Sept. 26, 2008 which indicates that fear is continuing to move lower. (click image to enlarge) Strongest Sectors: XLF +15.54%...XLI +5.50%...XLB +4.33% Weakest Sectors: XLU +0.04%...XLP +0.05%...XLV +0.46% All sectors moved higher, barely, on Thursday as Utilities XLU and Consumer Staples XLP were positive by one cent each. The Financial Sector XLF, +15.54%, regained its leader status performing almost three times better than the second sector Industrials XLI + 5.50%. Financial stocks stronger than +15.54% include: BAC, WFC, ZION, KEY, USB, PNC, AXP, AFL, JPM, STT, SPG and ETF’S UYG and FAS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK, +2.51%: EBAY, AMAT, DELL, EMC, INTC, YHOO, HPQ, CSCO, ADBE, QCOM, SYMC, MA, AMT, ORCL, GOOG, T, AAPL, TXN and ADP. Sector Watch Up Trending: Sideways: XLE, XLY, XLV, XLK, XLB Down Trending: XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Volume jumped on Thursday as the DJIA trading 462 million shares and increase of 207 million shares or 81% from Wednesday’s 255 million shares. We expected volume to be light on Thursday, as it was from Monday to Wednesday, and it was NOT. Thursday’s large move was supported by good volume. The trend continues to be up. We will watch the trading pattern closely as traders return from the long weekend on Monday. The pattern since March 10 has been strong up for one to two days and then pause or pullback for one to two days. Until a new pattern emerges we will expect traders to push and pause. Also earnings begin this next week. We expect positive earnings like recently reported RIMM, BBBY and JOSB to strengthen the market. Oh don’t worry, there will plenty of disappointments over the next four weeks to counter balance the positive surprises. Dave’s Insight: Trade the trend and trade strength. (click image to enlarge) Index Commentary The DJIA formed a large white candle that confirmed Wednesday’s bullish harami type pattern and broke through the horizontal resistance of April 2 – 3…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA…volume was an above average 462 million. The SPX confirmed Wednesday’s bullish harami with a large white candle pattern…formed a new high close above the April 2 – 3 horizontal resistance …closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA…the current price pattern gives an 875 price target sometime during the next 6 trading days. The Nasdaq formed a large white candle breaking through horizontal resistance …closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA…the current price pattern gives a price target of 1,687 also within 6 days. At the Open on Monday SPY – bull flag breakout DECK – new high close on horizontal breakout CTSH – horizontal breakout…above 200 DMA EBAY – bull flag breakout SCHN – confirmed hammer GME – 200 DMA breakout SHLD – support bounce in bull flag COV – sellers at 50 DMA XRT – 200 DMA breakout USD – close above horizontal resistance URE – close above horizontal resistance UYG – break horizontal resistance WYNN – confirm hammer bounce to resistance CELG – pausing after bear flag break LEAP – at 30 DMA support Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, BKC, NFLX, DLTR, HANS, ICE, ALGT, DLB, JEC, PWR, VPRT, AMZN, USD, AAPL, CTSH, FLS, JOYG, APEI, AXYS, BAP, CAM, GMCR, GPRO, JCOM, JOSB, MUR, PETS, WMT, ATW, GR, BIIB, SLGN, SWN, SYNA, SNHY, EBAY, GES, SNA, ORCL, WRC, DECK, HDB, PCP, UYG, FSLR, GME, WCG, RIMM, X, BDX, BYI, CBST, EZPW, HLF, MYGN, MCD, AMX, MHS, WAB, FAS, AFAM, CHL, JW.A, K, MOS, NTLS, RBN, ESRX, PCLN, URE, GILD, AMED, VAR, PCR, PPD, MON Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 TDG, NIHD, SPWRA Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 RCI Staying Below 30 DMA BLUD, DV, ESI, GXDX, STRA, CPLA, ACN, PSYS Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks Dave!!! Took that GME May $30 Call paper trade on Tuesday which filled our T1 target of $31.29 this am as break out sliced through.! I was too late to keep some contracts back and here we are at $32 +!!! Anyways, it was a real psychological boost to preset up a trade with a sell order and watch it play out profitably so thanks so much again.!
Francis
Reposting my comment from previous commentary.
Would you consider GME for another re-entry next week assuming break out holds? thanks
Francis

sanjay patel said...

dave you are providing great insight of the market and technical analysis learning a alot from you, thank you

Anonymous said...

Dave, Really like the new blog, really appreciate the time and effort
you put into this and all your capstone sessions

Thanks