1:00 pm ET - SPY is back above Friday's low at 82.77...
12:55 pm ET - SPY is currently bouncing...is at 82.65...from today's low of 82.29...SPY opened at 83.34 this morning down from Friday's close 84.26
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11:30 am ET - SPY has rallied from its low of 82.60 to 82.90...this is why a price filter is important to help filter out price fluctuation...
11:15 am ET - SPY is at Friday's low of 82.67...so the question becomes what price filter do you use to exit any long trades or enter short trades that you may have?
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10:45 am ET - The SPX opened lower as the futures indicated. SPY opened at 83.34 and is moving lower. It is forming a shooting star on the daily chart. Friday's low is 82.67. Monday's low is 82.75. Here is the 15 min. chart showing Monday morning's intraday low near Friday's support low.
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BMO - The ES -12 and NQ -21 are down in pre-market trading which points to a lower open. Watch for a break of the low of the high day, this could be the short term reversal we watch for.
Here is our At the Open on Monday list...check out the charts below...
At the Open on Monday
SPY – spinning top at resistance
SNDA – doji inside day at price target area
DECK – lower high at target 1
CTSH – new high close above 200 DMA
EBAY – new high close above 14 horizontal resistance
WYNN – Three white soldiers
SCHN – potential bearish harami
X – spinning top at horizontal resistance
FCX – spinning top at horizontal resistance
BRCM – hanging man/potential bearish harami
URE – close above 50 DMA
LEAP – close below low of high day
NOC – close below low of high day
COV – close below 30 DMA
CELG – bear flag
Break Low of High Day
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Break Low of High Day
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Break Low of High Day
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Bear Flag
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8 comments:
Dave,
Since 9:45 EST to 12:35 pm ES price moved in channel line, and at 1:10 EST to 1:25, bounced below the 50 DMA, volume pretty low overall today. Big $ still like to hold on. Any thoughts?
Meri
Dave,
In following the e mini futures for ES & NQ, and paper trading for the day trend..do you have guidelines on setting the stops like you do for equities i.e. # ticks below S & R or can one use the ATR and set accordingly the appropriate day trending stops?
Lin
Dave,
Shooting star on the vix or a misplaced hammer? Seems like the hammer should be on the bottom of a previous candle and not on the top huh? It started as a kicking pattern going into the second half of the day, then turned into this hammer as we reach the 2:00 timeframe. Doesn't seem like this is anything since it's not happening at support or anything. Maybe near support but definitely not at support. Any thoughts?
Eric
Dear Dave,
I am a short term trend trader (2days-4weeks)and i buy simple calls/puts as my chosen vehicle (usually ATM on the Front Month depending on planned targets).
I have modified my entry/exit rules for bull flags from "buy on the CLOSE above the high of the low day" to "buy on the BREAKOUT above the high of the low day" because it was putting me in the trade too late (and with similar wording on the exit; getting me out too late as well).
BUT today DIA (and others) broke down below the low of the high day and therefore dictated that I leave the position even though I don't want to (because I still believe in the flag).
Can you suggest a solution to my dilemma?
Thanks,
D. Gorman
Price filters... right on as usual Dave. I'm trading the Qs and sill have them as they bounced off break out support nearly to the penny and did not break my price filter. And as I studied two bearish trades I entered on Mar 16 near the close, one on Qs, the other on SMH neither had actually broken the price filter. The chart shows us how those trades went. Thanks to you Dave, I am becoming a focused and great trader.
Michael Miller
Aloha Dave
I use a 25 cent filter AND a End Of Day market orders based on stock price. (5 minutes before close and I only trade high volume stocks with 1-cent to 10-cent spreads at the most)
Short term trades exits are based of the low or high of the previous day depending on direction of the trade. This way hammers, long leg doji's, outside days etc. do not kick me out intraday.
If I'm concerned about the potential risk of a trade using the end of day orders because of volatility, news, profit retention etc., then I'll usually place a OCO order where one order has the 5 minutes before closing execution and the other order is based on a specific price where I feel the move is not just a intraday swing but a failure of the pattern.
On intermediate term trades I use the my R/R/S stop (most recent/relevent/significant) support or resistance area as a stop with a filter and do not move the stop until I have a new R/R/S area to work from.
john
Dave,
filters do save a lot of churning.
When you are able, would you provide a little more color on the stop/exit strategy of the "Learn The Discipline" if they deviate from a trailing stop at the 30SMA minus 3%? I see some exits above the SMAE, (on bearish candlesticks). Would these types of exits go away as the overall market UP-trend better establishes itself? Also, could you provide a little more color as to the search criteria for the Learn The Discipline watch list. Is is the same as the original One Green Arrow criteria?
thanks for all you do for us,
Kevin D.
Dear John Kevan, Dave, and all...
John, excellent ideas you are sharing there. Very helpful to me, especially the idea of OCO with one side 5 mins before close. I had been thinking of a way to do something similar with "market on close" order but I this idea better.
I use a combo of automatic order closing down my SPY trade if it goes against my filter of .40 any time intra day. But I won't enter to the other direction right away. I wait 'till end of day to put on the new direction as a change of trend requires more confirmation.
Today my price filter of .40 for the SPY held and it came within .02 of kicking me out...but didn't. That price filter made a big difference.
Scott
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