Saturday, April 25, 2009

Learn the Discipline

Learn the Discipline Model Portfolio Summary - Week 12 You can see all the positions opened in the Model Portfolio since March 10. Positions prior to March 10 are listed in earlier posts. If you are new to the blog there is a description in the February 7 post that details an overview of how the Model Portfolio is being run. You can read it by clicking here: http://chartsignals.blogspot.com/2009/02/coming-next-week_07.html All prior posts can be found in the left hand menu under Key Topics...Learn the Discipline. As of Friday April 24 the portfolio is 49.86% invested in stocks. The balance is in cash. The drop is stocks positions was a result of being stopped out of four positions this week: NTLS, MOS, MYGN, and BDX. We entered no new positions this week primarily a function of market action and Dave's focus on teaching a two day Advanced Technical Analysis Workshop in Atlanta. The total value of open stock positions is $80,963.87 and the total portfolio value is $162,383.49. The portfolio value increased this week while the SPX was down three points. There are now eight positions that have been open at least four weeks ranging in returns from -0.83% to +35.68%. The longer (six month) intermediate term trend in the market is still neutral or sideways. These eight trades are suggesting that the intermediate term strategy is working. As we have stated for the past several weeks the performance time period is still too short to be conclusive. The early results are still very positivie. The portfolio continues to outperform the SPX since February 2. The portfolio has mostly been less than 50% invested during its existence which means it has been taking less risk than the SPX which is fully invested. As a result the risk adjusted returns continue to be more than double the SPX. Full details on the positions can be viewed in the table below. (click image to enlarge)

3 comments:

Ron Kominsky said...

Dave,

GREAT POSTS! You're charts have been spot-on and easy for me to see support/resistance and potential bounce areas. Also easy to determine what the initial price target on the move will be. Since I do not have time during the day to watch the market, I have been reviewing potential trades at night and setting them up the way that you are teaching them during the Adv. Tech. capstone sessions; this includes an EXIT - something that I have not done in the past. I have found that, at this point in my trading career, mental stops are killing me because I can always talk myself out of the stop once it is penetrated. Quick question - what is your opinion on BBBY? Keep up the great work. Look forward to your next post!

Thanks,
Ron

Anonymous said...

Dave,

Fantastic blog. Love the charts. Regarding FAS, if you entered on April 15 with a stop of 8.06, how are you still in the trade when FAS hit a low of 5.60 on April 21?


Steve Wolf

Anonymous said...

Dave,

It's great to learn a disciplined approach to managing a portfolio and I appreciate the individual selection and buying/selling process that you teach.

I have important questions and I can't find the answer in your posts:
What are the exact money allocation rules implemented to add to invested capital (in the form of $2,000.00 positions) in the portfolio? If it's discretionary, can you explain the analysis and decision process?
When and why do you accelerate the buying process (as observed in the last few weeks) and what is the maximum percentage range objective to have your portfolio invested? Answers to these initial money management questions and variables would help me greatly to better understand the trading process and follow the lessons of this model portfolio.

Thanks,
Mario H