Friday, April 3, 2009
Markets Close Higher...
DJIA + 39.51, +0.50%
SP500 + 8.12, +0.97%
NASDAQ Comp. + 19.24, +1.20%
Russell 2000 + 5.94, +1.32%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 2,517 1,666
Declining 1,212 1,086
Oil $52.51 -$0.13
Gold $895.60 -$11.80
SOX 251.88 +7.16
VIX 39.70 -2.34
The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday.
Strongest Sectors: XLF +4.08%...XLE +1.95%...XLK +1.40%
Weakest Sectors: XLV -1.65%...XLP -0.41%...XLI +0.10%
The Financial Sector, XLF, was again at the top of the sector list on Friday. Strong financial stocks that gained more than 4.08% on Friday included: SPG, PNC, ICE, WFC, PRU, BAC, STT, TROW, GS, CME, MS and ETF’s FAS and UYG.
Leading tech stocks that gained more than 1.40% included: DELL, EBAY, MA, GLW, ADBE, AMT, AMAT, EMC, YHOO, TXN, AAPL, ORCL, GOOG and INTC.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Sideways: XLE, XLY, XLV, XLK, XLB
Down Trending: XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
The SPX closed above the March 26 high with a new high close and its highest closing level since Feb. 9. This is obviously positive and a continuation of the up trend of the past four weeks. You will also notice that the price action on Friday stayed above the S1 level of Thursday's large white candle this is positive and shows buyers were willing to step and take the selling even though volume was below average. So stay with the trend.
The SPX, DJIA and Nasdaq were all new high closes and an inside day. It is this inside day, just like similar consolidation days during the past four weeks, that we need to watch on Monday to determine if Friday was once again the pause that refreshes or if it is the beginning of a slow down in short term momentum and a reversal. Check the charts below.
I know many traders don't believe this is the beginning of a reversal and are expecting this market to roll over and continue down. Let's face it after being conditioned for 18 months...down...down...down, it is certainly easy to understand how traders don't believe this could actually be the bottom. However, a good trader will put their beliefs aside and act on their trade signals. Remember the trend is your friend, until a new one begins.
So again, trade this trend until it ends. You must maintain mental flexibility.
Joe Granville wrote over 30 years ago, "market winners buy and sell from market losers." He also wrote: "Anybody who is among the first to detect a new trend in the market and act upon that discovery is automatically among the "smart money" crowd."
Don't assume Friday is the top, but be prepared if the markets begin to roll over.
Remember Dave's Inisight: Trade the market, not your thoughts.
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Index Commentary – Yellow Alert
The DJIA formed a hanging man inside day trading on both sides of its March 26 high horizontal resistance…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA
The SPX formed a hanging man like candle inside day…during the moring retraced to Thursday’s S1 level where buyers took over and moved the index higher…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA
The Nasdaq formed a hanging man like candle inside day that closed less than 2 points below Thursday’s intra-day high…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA
The RUT formed a white candle that closed above Thursday’s high which was its highest close since February 9…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA
At the Open on Monday
SPY – spinning top at resistance
SNDA – doji inside day at price target area
DECK – lower high at target 1
CTSH – new high close above 200 DMA
EBAY – new high close above 14 horizontal resistance
WYNN – Three white soldiers
SCHN – potential bearish harami
X – spinning top at horizontal resistance
FCX – spinning top at horizontal resistance
BRCM – hanging man/potential bearish harami
URE – close above 50 DMA
LEAP – close below low of high day
NOC – close below low of high day
COV – close below 30 DMA
CELG – bear flag
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Leading Stocks:
Holding Above 30 DMA
BIDU, CLB, BKC, NFLX, DLTR, HANS, ICE, ALGT, DLB, JEC, PWR, VPRT, AMZN, MON, USD, AAPL, CTSH, FLS, JOYG, APEI, AXYS, BAP, CAM, GMCR, GPRO, JCOM, JOSB, MUR, PETS, WMT, ATW, GR, BIIB, SLGN, SWN, SYNA, SNHY, EBAY, GES, SNA, ORCL, WRC, DECK, HDB, PCP, UYG, BLUD, FSLR, GME, ESI, WCG, RIMM, X, BDX, BYI, CBST, EZPW, HLF, MYGN, STRA, MCD, AMX, MHS, WAB, NIHD, FAS, AFAM, CHL, JW.A, K, MOS, NTLS, RBN, RCI, CPLA, ESRX, GXDX, PCLN, URE
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
GILD, PCR, TDG
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
SPWRA, VAR
Staying Below 30 DMA
DV, ACN, PPD, PSYS, AMED
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral – DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq, RUT
Short Term Market Trend: Up
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