Monday, April 6, 2009

Markets Trade Low Volume on Monday

DJIA - 41.74, -0.50% SP500 - 7.02, -0.83% NASDAQ Comp. - 15.16, -0.93% Russell 2000 - 8.57, -1.88% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,142 847 Declining 2,569 1,907 Oil $51.05 -$1.46 Gold $871.50 -$24.10 SOX 245.38 -2.25 VIX 40.93 +1.23 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Monday. Strongest Sectors: XLV +3.10%...XLP +0.96%...XLI +0.25% Weakest Sectors: XLF -2.68%...XLE -2.02%...XLB -1.76% The Financial Sector, XLF, was the weakest sector on Monday. Financial stocks stronger than XLF include: STT, AOC, MET, TRV, AXP, IVZ, BAC, AFL, MMC, GS, ZION and SPG. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK: AAPL, VZ, DELL, MSFT, GGO, INTC, IBM, ORCL, YHOO, T, SYMC and EMC. Sector Watch Up Trending: Sideways: XLE, XLY, XLV, XLK, XLB Down Trending: XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Beginning tomorrow Tuesday, April 7, Dave will be the host of Virtual Coaching Options from 11 am to 1 pm ET. Come join in and bring your questions live during the market! Markets traded light volume on the first day of this holiday shortened trading week. DJIA volume was down 61 million shares from 308 million shares on Friday to 247 million on Monday. Only 15 stocks in the NDX 100 traded above average volume. 85 stocks traded below average volume with 42 of the stocks trading 30% or more below average and 9 of those trading less than half of average volume. Even Nasdaq bellweather stocks AAPL and MSFT traded below average volume. Light volume appeared to be a major factor trading in a narrow range on Monday. The SPX stayed in a 16 point range on Monday compared with 30 and 31 points last Wednesday and Thursday. The small spinning tops keep us on Yellow Alert for Tuesday in case the market does rollover. The good news is the S1 support level on the SPX held for the second straight trading day. Buyers seem prepared to step up at Thursday's midpoint. As long as price stays above S1 that is bullish. The net effect is the market is in an up trend with a modest pull back on light volume. That is generally a description of a bullish trend. This also is the pattern that this trend has been demonstrating since the market starting moving up on March 10. All the major indices are trading above their 20, 30 and 50 DMAs. Index CommentaryYellow Alert The DJIA formed a hanging man with a slightly lower high and lower low…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA…volume dropped from 308 million on Friday to 247 million on Monday The SPX formed a hanging man/bearish harami candle pattern…again fell to Thursday’s S1 level where buyers took over for the second straight day…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA The Nasdaq formed a white hanging man candle…made a lower higher and lower low…Monday’s low was above Thursday’s gap up…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA The RUT formed a black hanging man like candle that found support at last Thursday’s S1 level…made a lower high and lower low…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA (click on image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – spinning top at resistance SNDA – hanging man at lower price target area DECK – lower high at target 1 CTSH – hanging man new high close above 200 DMA EBAY – bearish harami WYNN – shooting star/tombstone doji SCHN – double bearish harami/pennant X –doji/bearish harami at horizontal resistance FCX – hanging man at horizontal resistance BRCM – hanging man confirm bearish harami URE – doji/bearish harami at 50 DMA LEAP – dragonfly doji at 200 DMA…low day NOC – bullish engulfing COV – spinning top potential morning star below 30 DMA CELG – bear flag SLGN - bull flag GME - bull flag Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks: Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, BKC, NFLX, DLTR, HANS, ICE, ALGT, DLB, JEC, PWR, VPRT, AMZN, USD, AAPL, CTSH, FLS, JOYG, APEI, AXYS, BAP, CAM, GMCR, GPRO, JCOM, JOSB, MUR, PETS, WMT, ATW, GR, BIIB, SLGN, SWN, SYNA, SNHY, EBAY, GES, SNA, ORCL, WRC, DECK, HDB, PCP, UYG, BLUD, FSLR, GME, ESI, WCG, RIMM, X, BDX, BYI, CBST, EZPW, HLF, MYGN, STRA, MCD, AMX, MHS, WAB, FAS, AFAM, CHL, JW.A, K, MOS, NTLS, RBN, RCI, ESRX, GXDX, PCLN, URE, GILD, PCR, TDG Moving Above 30 DMA = 4 AMED, DV, PPD, VAR Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 CPLA, MON, NIHD Staying Below 30 DMA SPWRA, ACN, PSYS Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

Bill Lankswert said...

I'm sorry that I didn't follow you today during the day. I didn't think you would post so regularly. But, tomorrow I will follow your comments.

My trading system is built upon your teaching, with filters for stops. Using that, virtually all of my bullish positions were not stopped out today. They may be stopped out tomorrow, but I will know on what basis and when to re-enter - either bullishly or bearishly.

Based on your guidance I have changed my system this year to trade on what I see, not what I anticipate. It feels much better and has worked well so far. But, I do need to be more disciplined on the entry.

Thanks for you insights and I look forward to hearing from you tonight.

Bill