Tuesday, August 2, 2016

SPY Finally Pulls Back After 13-day Channel...EPS Movers...

Just one of nine sectors moved higher on TuesdayXLE, XLP and XLB were the strongest sectors while XLY was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell .36 to close at 39.72.

Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,311 to 686 on the NYSE and led 1,926 to 651  on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Monday – weakened, decliners led on NYSE, +5
Friday – strengthened, advancers led on NYSE, +6
Thursday – mixed, advancers led on NYSE, +6
Wednesday – weakened, advancers led on NASDAQ, +3

SPY down 1.39 at 215.55 on 92.2 million shares, 2% below average volume
VIX up .93 at 13.37
TLT down 1.44 at 138.33…on 10.0 million shares, 9% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
DIA -0.49%, SPY -0.64%, QQQ -0.76%, IWM -1.39%,

The SPY penetrated the 215.31 support low of its 13-day sideways trend but closed above that level at 215.55, down -0.64%.  This is the first day of any meaningful pullback since SPY broke out of horizontal resistance on July 8, clearly making it one of the 30% breakouts that don’t test right after the breakout.

13-day channel range $2.34
30 DMA support level 212.47.
SPY horizontal support level 210.87.  
38.2% Fib level 210.39

BIIB +28.28, +9.37% jumped on takeover interest from other drug companies.


SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, bull flag
XLB, XLF, XLI, XLK, bull flag

Traders that had moved stops up over the past few days to protect profits may have been stopped out todayNow, look for reentry according to your rules.
Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Earning’s Announcements:

Positive Reactions: SODA, MNK, DNB, DISCA, WMB, CVS, ABC, TDC, ECL, EXPD, CAH, MOS, CGNX
SODA +3.97, +16.35%
MNK +9.54, +14.16%
DNB +9.76, +7.59%
DISCA +1.65, +6.66%
WMB +1.43, +6.35%
CVS +4.57, +4.89%
ABC +3.89, +4.55%
CGNX +3.62, +7.99%

Negative Reactions: IDTI, TXRH, RCL, STX, THC
IDTI -2.63, -11.85%
TXRH -5.90, -12.37%
RCL -4.51, -6.28%
STX -1.78, -5.49%
THC -1.34, -4.64%

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include:  AVGO, EBAY, FB, LRCX, MXIM, NTAP, NTES, NVDA, PCAR, QCOM, ROST, TNX, ULTA, XLNX, AAPL, STX, TMUS, AMZN, ADI, COST, CSCO, CSX, CTRP, EXPE, MU, ORLY, SIRI, PAYX, MLM, CBG, BA, GPS, BX, EW, DHI, URI, ZION, CINF, AMBA, HLT, AIV, SPG, X, HCN, MAC, TJX, LB, WHR, BURL, KMX, CERN,

Bull Flag Bounces include: LMT,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: MSFT, COST, JNJ, UNH, JD, SWN, GGP,

Horizontal Breakout include:


New Highs include: BIIB, REGN, GRMN, STT, TSN, BMRN, BXP, ADSK, REGN, DLTR, X, CBL

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Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 95, bullish.

10 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Tuesday.

72 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
DISCA, SYMC

Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
ADBE, BBBY, BIDU, CA, CTSH, CTXS, DISH, LVNTA, NCLH, VIAB 

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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