Friday, August 26, 2016

SPX Rises following Yellen Comments, Fall after Fischer Speaks...Volatility Jumps Intra-day on Friday...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on FridayXLV, XLF and XLK were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures eased down .09 to close at 47.29.  Oil is forming a potential bull flag.

For the week ended August 26,
XLF +0.42%, XLK +0.06%, XLB -0.53%,
SPY -0.57%,
Lagging sectors XLI -0.61%, XLY -0.69%, XLP -1.11%, XLE -1.46%, XLV -1.73%, XLU -2.23%,

All nine sectors continued to be YTD positive after all nine sectors had turned YTD positive for the first time three weeks ago.

YTD 165
Leading Sectors: XLE +15.02%, XLU +13.56%, XLB +12.23%, XLI +10.66%, XLK +9.85%, XLP +7.57%,
SPY +6.58%,
Lagging Sectors: XLY +3.56%, XLV +1.44%, XLF +1.17%,


Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,820 to 1,205 on the NYSE and led 1,487 to 1,326 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +4
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +3


SPY down .41 at 217.29 on 122.5 million shares, 106% above average volume
VIX up .02 at 13.65
TLT down .81 at 138.36…on 12.9 million shares, 107% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
QQQ +0.15%, SPY -0.19%, IWM -0.20%, DIA -0.30%,

On Friday morning the SPX rose after Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated a strong labor market supported an interest rate hike this year while also indicating that slow GDP growth, weak global economies and an uncertain economic outlook made it less clear


Later Friday morning Vice Chair Fischer indicated that Yellen’s comments were consistent with a September rate hike which increased volatility and sent stocks lower.  VIX spiked to 14.03 as the SPY fell to 216.35.  Stocks rallied and the SPY closed at 217.29 while VIX fell back to 13.65.

Earnings reactions on Friday
ADSK +5.17 +8.12%
ULTA -16.60, -6.12%,
GME -3.42, -10.63%,


Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: MPC, URBN, EA, PCAR, GS, CHTR, LB, M, KSS, CERN, ROST, TMUS, KMX, AAPL, KMI, JD, MAR, HRL, WMB, JCP, TWTR, IWM, GPRO, RL, CAT,

Bull Flag Bounces include: MU, CTRP, PCLN,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: CBL, ETFC, MU, CTRP, INTC, VLO, STX, CCL, ADBE, TIF, PAYX, NFLX, MSFT, AAL, MPC, C, PAYX, WFC, HLT, JPM, SPY, FAS, XLF, NVDA, TSN, MAT, HPE, CBG, AVGO, URI, WDC, QQQ, JWN, SBAC,

Horizontal Breakout include:


New Highs include: ADSK, WRK, TIF, BURL, SWKS, BAC, ZION, AMBA, MS, NTAP, AVGO, AMAT, CHK, XLNX, SYMC, PCAR, STT


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Short-term Movers for the week:
SPX gainers:  BBY, CMG, TIF, DLH, WRK, CHK, SWN, CF, CBG, BAC, MET, CRM, ETFC, +4, 11
SPX losers:  DG, SIG, SJM, NEM, FCX, WYNN, GRMN, MNK, FOSL, AGN, STJ, MCK, OKE, AZO, MRO, DO, HAL, NFX, M, PCG, MUR, CI, JBHT, -4, 30

NDX gainers:  ADSK, INCY, BMRN, AKAM, SBUX, NTES, SWKS, STX, CTRP, CSCO, ATVI, MAT, +4, 5
NDX losers:  MYL, DLTR, ENDP, ULTA, NCLH, VIAB, ESRX, LMCA, -4, 8,


YTD: 165
SPX Leaders:  NEM, SWN, OKE, URBN, RRC, FCX, XEC, SE, PVH, ALB (353, +0 > 10p 241, -7)
SPX Losers:  FSLR, CF, PRGO, SIG, RCL, TSO, DAL, ADS, HRB, GCI

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, LLTC, ULTA, CHTR, NTAP, TXN, YHOO, PCAR, QCOM, (62, -3, >10p 36, -2)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, LMCA, NCLH, ALXN, SRCL, TRIP, WDC, LVTYA, INCY, JD,

DJI Leaders:  CAT, MMM, MRK, UNH, WMT, JNJ, CSCO, IBM, VZ, CVX (24, +1, >10p 13, +1)
DJI Losers:  DIS, BA, GS, AXP, NKE, MCD

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed down below 80 at 72, defensive.  SPY is above short-term support, take defensive action if SPY breaks below 217, otherwise trend is short-term trend is neutral and stay positioned accordingly.

56 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and three were unchanged on Friday.

58 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
BMRN, CA, CHKP, VRSK

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
ORLY, SBAC, TMUS, ULTA, VOD


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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