Friday, August 5, 2016

SPX New All-time High Close Following Jobs Report...Financials Rise

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on FridayXLF, XLY and XLI were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose .17 to close at 41.98.

For the week ended August 5,
XLF +1.56%, XLK +1.29%,
SPY +0.49%,
Lagging sectors XLI +0.47%, XLE +0.22%, XLB +0.16%, XLV +0.07%, XLY -0.06%, XLP -0.20%, XLU -2.67%,


With the gains in XLF today, all nine sectors have turned YTD positive for the first time.

YTD 150
Leading Sectors: XLU +17.21%, XLB +12.32%, XLE +11.95%, XLI +10.00%, XLK +9.85%, XLP +8.12%,
SPY +7.02%,
Lagging Sectors: XLV +4.47%, XLY +4.36%, XLF +0.80%,


Breadth strengthened as advancers led 2,133 to 824 on the NYSE and led 1,854 to 721 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led, +8
Thursday – weakened, advancers led on NYSE, +4
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +6
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Monday – weakened, decliners led on NYSE, +5

SPY up 1.77 at 218.18 on 71.8 million shares, 22% below average volume
VIX down 1.03 at 11.39
TLT down 1.45 at 138.00…on 7.7 million shares, 15% below average volume


Technical Commentary:
IWM +1.44%, DIA +0.99%, QQQ +0.96%, SPY +0.82%,

After 16 days grinding in a sideways channel, sometimes referred to as a horizontal bull flag, SPX breaks out and makes a new all-time high close at 2,182.87.

SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, XLB, XLF, XLI, XLK, bull flag bounce

SPY, QQQ, XLK new high

XLV bull flag setup
DIA, XLB, XLY, horizontal breakout setup



If you have been stopped this week, look for reentry according to your rules.

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.


Earning’s Announcements:
Positive Reactions: SPXC, PCLN, NUS, ALNY, LGF, EOG,
 SPXC +2.56, +16.84%
PCLN +54.23, +3.99%
NUS +5.87, +10.95%

Negative Reactions: QVCA, FEYE, ZG, ZNGA, CNP, OUT
QVCA -5.69 -21.36%

FEYE -2.02, -12.06% 

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include:  NTES, PCAR, EXPE, SIRI, BA, EW, DHI, GRMN, BIIB, CBL, JNJ, VLO, AIV, MAC, JD, TSN, BXP, BMRN, MXIM, MLM,


Bull Flag Bounces include: STX, CSX, EBAY, NTAP, QCOM, ROST, ADI, ADSK, COST, CSCO, CTRP, ORLY, PAYX, CBG, GPS, BX, CINF, X, MPC, HLT, LB, WHR, BURL, BXP, DLTR,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: NTAP, IBM, MU, LRCX, AMBA, HPE, AMZN, ULTA, DLTR, BXP, BURL, BX, LB, HLT, UNH, CBL, X, GPS, PAYX, ORLY, CSCO, COST, ADSK, QCOM, EBAY, CSX, TXN, FB, STX, URI, ZION, TJX, KMX, SWN, LMT, WMB, CNC, WFC,

Horizontal Breakout include: SPY, XLF, QQQ, IWM, MSFT, MRK, BAC, C, JPM, TMUS, CBG, NVDA, AVGO, XLNX, ZION,



New Highs include: SPY, QQQ, IWM, MSFT, TMUS, CERN, STT, MPC, NVDA, AVGO, AAPL, 


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Short-term Movers:
SPX gainers:  MNK, BLL, TDC, EOG, MRK, AIG, DNB, WMB, MPC, PH, MSI, XEC, SHW, ICE, HAR, CVS, WU, PGR, ABC, KEY, CFG, PNC, NFX, C, HPE, LNC, CBG, +4, 39
SPX losers:  BMY, CF, CHK, IRM, FE, NBL, FTR, AN, FCX, DO, FSLR, KSS, APA, CMG, CNP, CTL, AWK, M, HBI, KR, VTR, PEG, SRE, SWN, EXR, O, VMC, EQT, -4, 35

NDX gainers:  BIIB, CERN, SYMC, ALXN, NFLX, MU, VRTX, AVGO, DISCA, BIDU, PCLN, EA, ENDP, +4, 13
NDX losers:  QVCA, TRIP, HSIC, TSCO, FISV, CTXS, WDC, -4, 7,


YTD: 150
SPX Leaders:  NEM, SWN, OKE, FCX, RRC, SE, GRMN, ALB, MLM, HPE (352, +14 > 10p 245, -1)
SPX Losers:  CF, PRGO, FSLR, SIG, TSO, HRB, RCL, DAL, GCI, VLO,

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, ULTA, LLTC, CHTR, TXN, ISRG, DLTR, MAT, QCOM, (61, +6, >10p 35, +1)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, LMCA, JD, TRIP, ALXN, LBTYA, NCLH, SRCL, QVCA, WDC

DJI Leaders:  UNH, CAT, JNJ, MRK, WMT, IBM, MMM, VZ, CSCO, XOM, (25, +4, >10p 12 )

DJI Losers:  NKE, GS, BA, DIS, AXP, 


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 94, bullish.

79 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Friday.

79 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 9
BBBY, BIDU, CTXS, JD, KHC, MNST, PAYX, PYPL, VIAB,   

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0



6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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