Friday, August 19, 2016

Oil Rises Day 7...SPY Range Day 11...DE, FL, AMAT, HRL, GPS, ROST Move Higher...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on FridayXLB, XLK and XLY were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose .16 to close at 49.12 rising for the seventh straight day nearing its June 9 high of 51.67.

For the week ended August 19,
XLE +2.49%, XLB +1.18%, XLI +0.79%, XLF +0.63%,
SPY +0.04%,
Lagging sectors XLK -0.19%, XLP -0.31%, XLV -0.56%, XLY -0.61%, XLU -1.24%,

XLE and XLI continued to rise this week.

All nine sectors continued to be YTD positive after all nine sectors had turned YTD positive for the first time two week ago.

YTD 160
Leading Sectors: XLE +16.73%, XLU +16.15%, XLB +12.83%, XLI +11.34%, XLK +9.78%, XLP +8.77%,
SPY +7.20%,

Lagging Sectors: XLY +4.27%, XLV +3.23%, XLF +0.76%,


Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,742 to 1,188 on the NYSE and led 1,322 to 1,221 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +6
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

SPY down .32 at 218.54 on 75.4 million shares, 22% above average volume
VIX down .09 at 11.34
TLT down .73 at 138.71…on 5.5 million shares, 18% below average volume


Technical Commentary:
IWM 0.00%, QQQ -0.03%, SPY -0.15%, DIA -0.19%,


Following a 16-day range in July, SPY is finished its eleventh day in a new range of just 2.48.  Momentum has slowed down in the broad market as individual stocks continue to dominate since July 11. Big movers on Friday included DE, FL, AMAT, HRL, GPS and ROST.

There are still a large number of bull flags in the broad market, look at your stock list for potential setups for bull flag price patterns.



Earning’s Announcements:
Positive Reactions: DE, FL, AMAT, HRL, GPS, ROST  
DE +10.38, +13.49%
FL +6.81, +11.04%
AMAT +1.96, +7.08%
HRL +1.62, +4.37%
GPS +1.01, +3.90%
ROST +2.18, +3.47%

Negative Reactions: EL,
EL -3.37, -3.54%


Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.




Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include:  AMBA, NVDA, GPRO, TWTR, JCP, MAT, C, QQQ, CHTR, CTRP, M, KSS, SBAC, MSFT, XLF, TMUS, ETFC, XLV, CERN, CBG, COST, ORLY, ALXN, CELG, BXP, KMX, CBL, AAPL, PCLN, IBM,

Bull Flag Bounces include: CAT, JWN, RL, BIIB,


Horizontal Breakout Setups include: TIF, SPY, IWM, AVGO, CCL, AAL, BAC, ZION, WFC, BX, HLT, HPE, DISCA, NFLX, MRK, URI, JPM, STX, INTC, GRMN, FAS, KHC, KMI, TSN,

Horizontal Breakout include: BURL, MAR, AMAT, ROST,


New Highs include: AMAT, ROST, NTAP, LB, MS, SYMC, GS, MU, JD, ADSK, STT, VLO, CHK, URBN, TIF, EA, PCAR, WRK, MPC, XLNX, ULTA, WMB, BURL MAR,


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Short-term Movers for the week:
SPX gainers:  URBN, CHK, MRO, DE, FL, APA, FTI, GPS, HAL, DVN, OKE, LYB, CTAS, RIG, BHI, MI, NOV, WMB, LB, SYMC, PXD, RF,, PX, NAVI, MUR, XYL, TEL, MS, COP, UA, EQT, PRGO, NKE, HRL, RRC, PWR, RHI, UNP, +4, 46
SPX losers:  VRSN, ADS, SPLS, TGT, DVA, BBY, T, CRM, AAP, LOW, TJX, UHS, LMT, MCD, CBG, CTL, -4, 14

NDX gainers:  NTAP, AMAT, MU, SWKS, BIDU, EA, SYMC, WDC, JD, AAL, LRCX, PCAR, ADSK, ROST, +4, 11
NDX losers:  INCY, ENDP, REGN, MAT, VRTX, -4, 3,

YTD: 160
SPX Leaders:  NEM, OKE, SWN, FCX, URBN, RRC, SE, EW, KMI, PXD (353, +1 > 10p 248, +1)
SPX Losers:  CF, FSLR, PRGO, RCL, TSO, HRB, ADS, DAL, GCI, SIG

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, ULTA, LLTC, CHTR, NTAP, YHOO, TXN, PCAR, ISRG,  (65, +1, >10p 38, +3)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, LMCA, NCLH, ALXN, SRCL, TRIP, WDC, LVTYA, INCY, JD,

DJI Leaders:  CAT, UNH, MRK, MMM, WMT, JNJ, IBM, CVX, UTX, VZ (23, -1, >10p 12)
DJI Losers:  DIS, GS, BA, AXP, NKE, MCD, JPM


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 91, bullish.

53 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two were unchanged on Friday.

65 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
ISRG, PAYX,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
CMCSA, EXPE, MNST, PYPL, REGN, SBAC


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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