Friday, July 17, 2015

NDX New High as GOOG +16% on Earnings, FB, AMBA, GPRO on the Rise...

One of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…the strongest sectors were XLK…XLI…and XLP…the weakest sector was XLE.
 
Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 1.87 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.50 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, advancers led


SPY up .18 at 212.48 on 89 million shares
VIX down .16 at 11.95…
TNX down .03 at 23.49…
TLT up .61 at 118.72…
XLF down .07 at 25.39 on 18.1 million shares

AAPL up 1.11 at 129.62 on 46.1 million shares
FB up 4.12 at 94.97 on 54 million shares, double average volume

Technical Commentary:
QQQ +1.47%, SPY +0.08%, DIA – 0.29%, IWM -0.44%.

The NDX gained more than 5% this week led by huge positive earnings reactions on GOOGL and NFLX.  The SPX gained about 2.4% as money center banks JPM, WFC, C and BAC all had positive earnings reactions. SCHW and USB also had positive earning reactions.  The RUT small caps was the laggard gaining just 1.2% for the week.

The lesson from this week is a continuation of what we saw two weeks ago with NKE and MU earnings.  Have good numbers and guidance: Big Money still has money to buy. Bad numbers: Big Money will sell.

It does appear with the Chinese buyout offer that happened on Monday, though unrealistically low, that investors have started to accumulate MU again and it may be poised to breakout and reverse its recent downtrend.

The broad market also benefited from the resolution of Greece’s current debt payment default this week.  This removed some of the event uncertainty of what if Greece would not receive additional bailout help.

Earnings season continue with IBM, MS, MSFT, YHOO, AAPL, BA, KO, AMZN, MCD, SBUX, UA and AAL as some of the bigger names reporting.


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Earnings Week of July 13
Monday – EXAS, HAL, HAS, IBM, MS, ZION
Tuesday – BHI, CMG, GPRO, HOG, ILMN, IBKR, LLTC, MSFT, SKX, TRV, VZ, VMW, YHOO,
Wednesday – ALTR, AXP, AAPL, BA, CHKP, KO, FFIV, FTNT, LVS, QCOM, RCL, SNDK, TSCO, XLNX,
Thursday – MMM, AMZN, CA, CMCSA, DOW, ETFC, FCX, FSL, GM, GIMO, JNPR, KLAC, MCD, NDAQ, OSTK, P,  PHM, LUV, SBUX, TRIP, UA, UNP, UAL, VRSN, V,
Friday – AAL, BIIB, SAVE, STT,


Q1 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – GOOG, GOOGL, HTZ, HON, GE, NFLX, SCHW, EBAY, C, USB, DAL, BAC, WFC, JPM,  NKE, AA

More than 10% - GOOG, GOOGL, HTZ, NFLX,

Negative Reactions – STI, UNH, MAT, KEY, YUM, FAST, CUDA, MU


More than -10% - CUDA, MU

Reversal in progress 

Reversal of Initial Reaction – 



Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 212.59, 214.90...
QQQ = 114.41, 116.43
Etc. = 125.63, 128.55 ...

Support Levels
SPY = 210.78, 208.94...
QQQ = 111.13, 110.00…
Etc. = 124.75, 123.37 .. .


The SPX Market Forecast is moving up and is at 80.

___________________

Setups
Horizontal Breakout: CIEN, EXPE, GME, GPRO, MS, NTES, SPLK, SUM, UNG, MFRM, AAPL, BRCM, COST, EA, MSFT, TSLA, YHOO,
Diagonal Breakout: Z,  
Bull Flag: JCP, ESRX, MNST 
At Support: AA,  
C- Pattern: SWKS, GT

Moves
New Highs: SPY, QQQ, BAC, C, MBLY, V, AMZN, EBAY, FB, GOOGL, ILMN,
H Breakout: DAL, IBM, JD, CMGE, BIDU, TRIP,
D Breakout: YOKU, YY
Bull Flag Bounce: UA,  
MACD Divergence Bounce: HABT, SHAK,     
Bounce: SHOP, W, ANGI, MTW,
Gap Up: LNKD, BIDU, FB, PCLN,
Gap Down: ZION, BBY,   
C- Pattern: GPRO, AMBA, JD, GS, ESPR, AER, AKAM
Support Break: SLCA, LOCO,

______________________

Watch List Stocks
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday: SHOP, HABT, SHAK, YOKU, W, JD, AMBA, GPRO, BABA, UA, YY, SOHU
                                                       
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: DGLY, SLCA, ATI, ZION, AXTA, TSL, ASNA


36 of100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday and one was unchanged.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GOOG, FB, BIDU, ILMN, TSLA, PCLN, MU, YHOO, AMZN, CHTR

Lagging NDX stocks included: DISCA, SPLS, MAT, WYNN, SRCL, BBBY, VIAB, PCAR, INTC, SBAC


NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
ADP, DISCA, WYNN

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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