Seven
of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLV, XLI and XLY were the strongest sectors…while
XLK was the weakest sector.
Breadth weakened
slightly on
the NASDAQ…advancers led decliners…1.60 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.62 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Friday – weakened slightly, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened,
advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened
slightly, decliners led
Tuesday – weakened,
decliners led
Monday – weakened,
decliners led
SPY up .90 at 180.81…volume 81.2 million shares
VIX down .40 at 12.26…
TNX down .32 at 27.52…
TLT up .96 at 103.91...
XLF up .10 at 21.49 volume
27.7 million shares
AAPL down 1.34 at 519.80…volume 7.9 million shares
FB down .47 at 46.23…volume 40.5 million shares
Technical
Commentary:
DIA + 0.34%,
IWM + 0.49%, SPY +
0.50%, QQQ + 0.54%.
The SPY,
DIA, QQQ and IWM each made a new high close on Friday. For all but the QQQ that is an all-time new high close. During the past 12 months the SPY has gained +32.46% as of Friday’s close. Prior to this week there have been seven noticeable
corrections in Dec, Feb, Apr, May/Jun, Aug, Oct and Nov. All but one have pulled back between -2.53% (Nov) and -4.69%. The May/Jun correction was the longest, 33
days, and was down -7.45%.
The SPY
did not go straight up but zig zagged its way higher making higher highs and
higher lows, the classic definition of an uptrend. Corrections occurred on average every seven
weeks. The SPY had another
pullback, a three day correction from Monday to Wednesday, falling -1.97%.
These high
profile companies that are both in the SP500 and NDX100, except
for BIDU and FB which are in the NDX100 only, each outperformed,
except for AAPL, the SPX. Each of these individual stocks did not go
straight up but also zig zagged their way to higher highs and higher lows. Each of these stocks during the past 12
months also had larger drawdown corrections than the largest -7.45% SPY correction, meaning the higher return
also had higher temporary drawdowns.
12 months
ending Nov 22, 2013
AAPL -6.1%
AMZN +56.11%
BIDU +66.73%
FB +86.98%
GOOG +54.25%
MSFT +42.15%
NFLX +317%
PCLN +80.68%
(click image to enlarge)
MU +0.20,
+1.00% closed at
a new ten-year high on Friday.
SPLK +13.66, +22.80% gapped up
following earnings after the close on Thursday. Airline stocks UAL, ALK, DAL and
LCC hit new highs on Friday as did UPS.
BA +3.04,
+2.29% was a
classic bull flag bounce on Friday worth seeing even if you didn’t trade it.
Chart Signals knows that it is important to
realize that as a trader you don’t know the future and that your favorite
market commentator or the television talking heads don’t know the future
either, but it is the charts themselves that give, through the buying and
selling actions shown, the most objective estimate of future price action. Of course when new information becomes known
that will be factored into the price action which will at times change the
trend prior to a chart target.
With
Friday’s breakout new
short term chart targets are established.
Chart Targets:
SPY = 182.06, 183.02…
QQQ = 85.14, 85.77…
IWM = 112.83, 114.39…
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville once
wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following
the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are
reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall
of mirrors.”
Short-term SPY posture is
down.
Support Levels
ES = 1,774, 1,736
SPY = 177.64, 174.76
QQQ = 83.48, 82.77,
81.37
IWM = 107.93
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – SPLK,
MRVL, GMCR, JCP, LZB, JKS, BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA, NTAP,
SLXP, PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN,
NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA,
ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL,
JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX,
ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN,
NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK,
NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
Negative Reactions – ROST,
GME, BBY, CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM,
SCTY, IPGP, AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN,
JDSU, OSK, CNW, ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI,
MSM, INGR, HTS, VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI,
VSH, ALSN, ROP, EW, MRK, RYN,
RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL, ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS,
AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY, CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON,
ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
Chart Signals Strategy
Guidelines
When the market is trending
up Chart Signals looks for support
bounce and resistance breakout entries.
When the market is trending
down Chart signals looks for resistance
pull back and support break entries.
When the market is sideways
in consolidation Chart
Signals will look for support
bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance
where price action stays between support and resistance.
Technical setups for short-term option
trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles,
strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups
in negative reaction stocks.
The Market Forecast Green Line is above
80.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: AMZN, CTSH, ESRX, GOOG, MSFT,
NUAN, SBUX, TXN, WDC, AXP, CVX, GS, MCD, MRK, MSFT, NKE, PFE, PG, UTX, V, ATI,
C, CMG, NKE, P, SWKS, V, Z
Diagonal Breakout: AAPL,
AMAT, FFIV, MNST, WYNN, XLNX, CNX, DNKN, LVS, PWRD, QIHU, YNDX, ZION,
Bull Flag: BIDU, MAT, DD,
GE, HD, XOM,
Potential Bullish
Divergence:
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:
At Support: GRPN, WLT, YELP,
C- Pattern:
Moves
New Highs: SPY, ADSK, CELG,
CMCSA, COST, GILD, MU, MYL, QCOM, YHOO, DIS, JNJ, JPM, MMM, TRV, WMT, ALK, FAS,
RCL, STI, UAL, VRSN,
Gap Up: SPLK, BIIB, MRVL,
GILD, CELG, TLT, TWC, CVC
Gap Down: ROST, TBT, X,
H Breakout: ADSK, CELG, CMCSA,
COST, QCOM, RCL, STI, JNPR,
D Breakout:
Breakout Test:
Bounce: BA, NKE, WMT, DTV,
ALK, ATI, BBRY, BX, CNX, DDD, DNKN, ESI, GLW, GME, GS, LCC, DAL, UAL, LVS, MFRM,
QIHU, SCSS, SOHU, STI, SWI, SWK, TLT, VRSN, YOKU,
MACD Divergence Bounce: CREE
Bear Flag:
Support Break: CLF,
______________________
57 out of 100 NDX
stocks closed higher on Friday and one was unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: BIIB, REGN, CHTR,
ADSK, CMCSA, GILD, LMCA, DTV, CELG, LBTYA, SHLD
Lagging NDX stocks included: ROST, INTC, GMCR,
INTU, CTRX, FB, NVDA, WFM, GOLD, SYMC, EXPE
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday
included: SPLK, UAL, BBRY, QIHU, YOKU, GME, CNX, JNPR, UNG
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: GRPN, KKD, JCP, RAX, SCTY, X, FSLR,
TSL, Z, SPWR, TWTR, YELP
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 55
CTSH, VOD,
ADBE, SBUX, MSFT, XRAY, AAPL, HSIC, FISV, FOSL, INTU, LINTA, PAYX, WDC, CHKP, GOOG,
ADP, AMZN, MAT, DISCA, CA, COST, LLTC, TXN, ADI, MCHP, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX,
ISRG, ALXN, GILD, MYL, PCLN, MDLZ, MNST, SHLD, YHOO, QCOM, NTAP, SRCL, BIDU, SIAL, CELG, BIIB,
GRMN, ATVI, CERN, CMCSA, CTXS, KLAC, LBTYA, GMCR
Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
BBBY, DTV, NUAN, STX, REGN, CHTR
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
INTC, ROST, SYMC
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMGN, DLTR,
GOLD, NVDA, SNDK, SBAC, CHRW, WYNN, BRCM, PCAR, SIRI, EQIX, FOXA, EBAY, SPLS, AVGO, CSCO, VIAB, AMAT, VIP, WFM,
CTRX, KRFT, VRSK, LMCA, TSLA, EXPD,
FAST, VRTX, FB, MXIM, AKAM, ORLY, FFIV, ALTR, XLNX
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Up
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