Friday, November 8, 2013

DIA New High, SPY Touches All-Time High, IWM,QQQ in Bull Flag...Financal Stocks Carry Markets Higher...Solar Stocks Sizzle Again...

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLF, XLB and XLY were the strongest sectors…XLU was the weakest sector.  Significant in Friday’s broad market move is that it was led by financials, basic materials and consumer discretionary and that two defensive sectors utilities and consumer staples.
 
XLF had its largest move since Oct 10 when it became apparent that the U.S. government was not going to default on its debt.  Leading financial stocks with large gains on Friday included: LNC, RF, SCHW, MET, ETFC, ZION, FITB, KEY, JPM, CME, CMA, STI and GNW.
 
Breadth strengthened…as advancers led decliners…1.35 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.00 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday - mixed
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
 
 
SPY up 2.36 at 177.29…volume 136.7 million shares
VIX down -1.01 at 12.90…
TNX up 1.33 at 27.46…
TLT down -2.55 at 103.41...
XLF up .47 at 20.86 volume 63.9 million shares
 
AAPL up 8.07 at 520.56…volume 10 million shares
FB down .03 at 47.53…volume 70.1 million shares…
 
Technical Commentary: 
IWM +1.82%, SPY +1.35%, QQQ +1.35%, DIA +1.05%. Interest rates rose and bonds fell…
 
The market was led by IWM, SPY and QQQ as the large cap DIA trailed.  SPY, IWM and DIA each fully reversed Thursday’s selloff, closed higher that Wednesday’s close and did so on volume that was lower than Thursday’s volume.  This suggests that sellers were done on Thursday and that buying has relatively little resistance on Friday. 
 
Another characteristic of Friday’s trading was more of a selective rotation move than a total broad move.  This was indicated by the strength in IWM and relative weakness in the DIA.  Also the NYSE advancers and decliners was a modest 1.35 to 1, not a particularly broad number, while the Nasdaq Composite was 3.00 to 1.   Additionally, the XLF +2.33% led all sectors by a larger than typical margin.
 
With Friday’s big move there are many bull flag setups in our list below and with the strong jump in financials and look for more stocks to break out of resistance.
 
TWTR -3.25, -7.25% pulled back on its second day of trading,
 
Solar stocks sizzling again on Friday:  SUNE +1.88, +17.62%, JKS +2.62, +11.22%, CSIQ +2.41, +9.14%, JASO +.84, +8.26%, YGE, SPWR, TSL, TAN and FSLR.
 
Continue to trade with trend of the individual stock that you are trading and be vigilant in protecting profits from the last three weeks.  Chart Signals has been alerting readers to, “Move profit protection stops according to your rules,” since Monday.
 
 
Chart Targets:
QQQ = 83.17
IWM = 110.96, 112.83
SPY = 177.85, 180.99
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term SPY posture is neutral.
Support Levels
ES = 1,741, 1,726
SPY = 174.44, 172.76
QQQ = 81.87, 80.76, 79.76
IWM = 107.83
 
 
Earnings this week: RAX, NTES, SINA, CSCO, NTAP, XONE, YOKU,
 
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – SLXP,PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
 
Negative Reactions – MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP, AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW, ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS, VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP, EW, MRK,  RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL, ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY, CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.   
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: SPY, DIA, DDD, GS, NKE, ADSK, MYL, GRPN,
 
Diagonal Breakout: TSL, FB, MU, SHLD, YHOO,
 
Bull Flag: QQQ, IWM, ALK, ANR, ATI, CLF, CMG, CNX, CRM, DNKN, FIVE, FSLR, GLW, GME, KKD, P, RCL, SPLK, SPWR, SWKS, TIF, TRIP, V, VRSN, AAPL, ADBE, AMZN, CMCSA, COST, ESRX, GILD, GOOG, MAT, MSFT, NFLX, ROST, SBUX, SNDK, STX, TXN, WDC, WYNN, AXP, BA,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: YNDX, YOKU, GRMN, NUAN, SIRI,
 
Gap Up:
 
Gap Down:
 
Bear Flag: UNG,  
 
At Support: LNKD, QIHU, BRCM, CELG, FAST, FB, QCOM, TSLA, XLNX,
 
Moves
New Highs: DIA,  
 
Gap Up: SLXP, RVBD, GPS, NVDA,
 
Gap Down:
 
H Breakout: JNPR, STI, TBT, NVDA,
 
D Breakout:   
 
Breakout Test: MFRM, TPX, AWAY
 
Bounce: ESI, FAS, penn, PCLN, LCC, UAL, WLT, X, XONE, ZION, BAC, C, GS, BIDU, FFIV, MYL,
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: PWRD, NTAP,
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: AKAM, PCLN, WYNN, CREE, LNKD, SINA, YOKU, Z,
 
 
______________________
 
 
90 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: NVDA, PCLN, MYL, FOXA, YHOO, ADBE, ALXN, CELG, ISRG, SBUX, GILD
 
Lagging NDX stocks included: MNST, EQIX, KRFT, TSLA, GOLD, CTRX, GRMN, MAT, FB, CHKP
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: WLT, XONE, GRPN, FAS, SPWR, ESI, LCC, ZION, TSL, TBT, ANR, PWRD, STI, FSLR, UAL, NTES, BAC, DDD, Z, CE, SCSS, JNPR, GME, ALK, SWI, YELP, ANGI, GS, CLF, CRM, ATI, RCL, YOKU (33)
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: SINA, TLT, SPLKM, MFRM
 
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 46
CTSH, VOD, ROST, ADBE, SNDK, SBUX, STX, CERN, CMCSA, MSFT, XRAY, AAPL, HSIC, SPLS, FISV, FOSL, INTC, INTU, KLAC, LINTA, PAYX, SBAC, WDC, CHKP, DTV, VIP, GOOG, ADP, AMZN, MAT, CA, COST, ADI, LLTC, TXN, MCHP, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, GOLD, CSCO, ESRX, LBTYA, ISRG
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 8
ALXN, ATVI, GILD, MDLZ, MYL, NVDA, PCAR, PCLN
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
MNST
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMAT, AVGO, BRCM, CHRW, CTRX, DLTR, FOXA, GRMN, KRFT, MDLZ, PCAR, QCOM, SIAL, VIAB, WFM, WYNN, AMGN, BBBY, BIIB, SHLD, REGN, LMCA, TSLA, VRSK, CHTR, EXPD, FAST,BIDU, SRCL, YHOO, CELG, VRTX, FB, MXIM, EQIX, AKAM, ORLY, SIRI, FFIV, SYMC, ALTR, XLNX, EBAY, NTAP, CTXS, GMCR, NUAN
 
 
Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Dave,

Your posts are ALWAYS appreciated very much!!!

Thank you!

Kathy :)