Two
of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLK, XLY and XLU were the strongest sectors…while
XLF was the weakest sector.
Breadth weakened on
light volume…advancers led decliners…1.26 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.59 to 1 on the NASDAQ where advancers
led decliners.
Friday – weakened,
advancers led
Wednesday – unchanged, advancers
led
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
Monday – weakened, mixed
SPY down -.12 at 181.00…volume 55.9 million shares
VIX up .72 at 13.70…
TNX up .05 at 27.41…
TLT up .03 at 104.45...
XLF down -.08 at 21.48 volume
12 million shares, bearish engulfing
AAPL up 10.11 at 556.07…volume 11.4 million shares, three white soldiers candle
FB up .52 at 47.01…volume 23 million shares, divergence bounce to similar high
Technical
Commentary:
QQQ + 0.60%,
IWM + 0.05%, SPY -0.07%,
DIA -0.08%.
On Friday
the QQQ reached its 200% chart target from its Nov 25 breakout. IWM traded within 23 cents and SPY
within 31 cents of their 161.8% Fib target.
Since last week’s bull flag bounce on Thursday, both the QQQ and IWM
have moved up six straight trading days.
Time to move stops
and protect profits in the event of another bull flag pullback.
While the SPX
is up for the eighth straight week it longest weekly win streak since Jan 2004
it is hardly it largest eight week gain.
On a weekly basis the SPX is up +6.85%
during the past eight weeks. Since the
bull market began in March 2009 there have been ten eight-week rallies, from
pullback lows, that have risen on a weekly basis between +8.14% and +28.41%, with six of the
ten in double-digit returns ranging between +10.5%
and +28.41%. While this is
the longest consecutive weekly rise since 2004, it is not even in the top
ten largest percentage gain in eight weeks for the current bull market.
AMZN, NFLX, PCLN and
QCOM each made a new high close on Friday and AAPL made
its highest close in almost a year.
FB gained and GOOG pulled back slightly.
Social
media stocks moved higher on Friday led by moves in YOKU, TWTR, ANGI, FB, Z,
and LNKD.
Solar
stock SCTY +3.21, +6.54% rose for the
third straight day.
Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over
again expecting different results.”
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville once wrote,
“technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the
footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly,
seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
New short term chart targets:
Chart Targets:
SPY = 182.06, 183.02…Friday’s
high 181.75
QQQ = 85.14, 85.77…touched
on Friday
IWM = 114.39, 116.10…Friday’s
high over 114
Short-term SPY posture is
neutral.
Support Levels
ES = 1,797, 1,774
SPY = 179.93, 177.98
QQQ = 84.11
IWM = 111.62
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – SPLK, MRVL, GMCR,
JCP, LZB, JKS, BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA, NTAP, SLXP,
PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI,
SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR,
SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL,
PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI,
EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS,
GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE,
BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
Negative Reactions – ROST, GME, BBY,
CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP,
AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW,
ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS,
VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP,
EW, MRK, RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL,
ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY,
CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS,
UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
The Market Forecast Green Line is above
80.
____________________
Setup Charts of Interest:
(click image to enlarge)
______________________
49 out of 100 NDX
stocks closed higher on Friday.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ALXN, GOLD, EBAY,
SIRI, BIDU, AAPL, AMZN, VRTX, MSFT, TXN
Lagging NDX stocks included: WDC, MDLZ, MNST,
BIIB, SIAL, SYMC, ALTR, WFM, FISV, SRCL
Leading stocks > +2% on
Friday included: SCTY, SOHU, YOKU, MCP, RAX, PWRD
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: LCC
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 60
CTSH, VOD,
ADBE, SBUX, MSFT, XRAY, AAPL, HSIC, FISV, INTU, LINTA, PAYX, WDC, CHKP, GOOG,
ADP, AMZN, MAT, DISCA, CA, COST, LLTC, TXN, MCHP, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX,
ALXN, GILD, MYL, PCLN, MDLZ, MNST, SHLD, YHOO,
QCOM, NTAP, SIAL, CELG, BIIB, GRMN, CERN, CMCSA, CTXS, LBTYA, GMCR,
BBBY, DTV, STX, REGN, CHTR, NVDA, WYNN,
LMCA, BIDU, KLAC, PCAR, VRTX
Moving Above 30 DMA =
4
ATVI, BRCM, FOSL, SIRI
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
SRCL
Staying Below 30 DMA
ADI, ISRG,
NUAN, INTC, ROST, SYMC, AMGN, DLTR, GOLD, SNDK, SBAC, CHRW, EQIX, FOXA, EBAY, SPLS, AVGO, CSCO, VIAB, AMAT, VIP, WFM,
CTRX, KRFT, VRSK, TSLA, EXPD, FAST, FB,
MXIM, AKAM, ORLY, FFIV, ALTR, XLNX
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Up
